DownUnderPaddy

Sept 2008 : Changing 200k GBP resulted in 530k AUD
Sept 2009 : The same exchange results in 360k AUD

At the same time, the median house price in Melbourne a year ago was 450k
1 year on, it is touching close to 500k.

For those coming out with no pounds to change and no intention to buy immediately, this is no big deal and they will be relatively unaffected (as we were when we moved in 2002 with no real amount of Euros to change and a plan to rent for several years prior to buying)

However, for those whose plan was to sell in the UK and buy here with the sale proceeds, this double whammy (triple, if the UK house price sale is also lower than expected) of reduced exchange rate/increasing Aus house prices must cause a dramatic shift in mindset.

Out of interest, of those with the 'sell in UK and buy in Aus' plan based on the pre GFC world economies prior to 1 year ago, how many are still implementing this plan now ?

bcworld

The average exchange rate during Sep 2008 was $2.19 so GBP200k = about AUD440k.

$2.65 was available for a very short time (we're talking hours, if not minutes) on one day in October...I don't think that spike would've been included as part of anyone's plans.

Sure, it's still a huge difference but not quite as dramatic as your numbers suggest. It will be enough to make some people change their plans though. I already have Aussie friends who live in the UK cancelling their holiday plans for a trip back on the basis of the ex rate!

ABCDiamond

And I wonder how many more from Australia are now planning a UK holiday

MrCro

I saw that spike on my iphone as had a daily check but never acted on it - dope!!!!!!!

Now it keeps me awake at night!

Oh well what can you do! tho you never know what's around the corner!!!!???

DownUnderPaddy

In fairness, the rate fluctuated wildly between 7th October and 31st October 2008, but was never lower than 2.40 at any day in that 3 week period, so the mindset for a 2.4:1 rate (turning 200kGBP into 480k AUD) would certainly have been prevalent at the time I am certain.

Prior to that, a lot of people probably would have thought they were seeing the bottom at 2:1 back in May '08 and could have started their emigration plans in the following months as the rate was seen to be continually rising.

Just conjecture, but interesting to hear from those a year on and how they may be tweaking their strategy to compensate.

sunflower7

Frightening when you think about it, I almost cried when I exchanged mine the other week, yet it has since gone down further!!
Before my arrival it was probably around 2.23 when I exchanged an initial 10k earlier this year, hindsight is a pain in the butt....

MrCro

it's all very cruel or very great it seems, no middle ground in these times!

all about time, I can wait and quite willing to do so! Keep it in £'s and still have the same pounds so if you think of it like that you aint losing anything!

Apart from we'll have to mortgage if want to buy a house in Oz but never was the plan to do so in first year so lets see what happens!

I just saw on TV that last year Bill Gates and Warren Buffet together lost $2million US per hour with the global recession so I don't feel too bad!

LouiseR

We sold in the UK and plan to buy here but we won't exchange till it reaches 2.2 at the very least, ideally we're looking at 2.4.

We don't mind waiting, we don't know where we want to live yet or what type of house we want to buy so we're happy to rent for a while. At the moment the current exchange rate is irrelevant to us, we're happy to keep our money in the UK earning about 3.5% on instant access (just in case the rate changes suddenly! )

bcworld

How much do you think they have gained per hour over the last 6 months though with stock markets generally around +50% over the period!

MrCro

who u banking with to get 3.5%? I set up an ING account offering 5% not too many months ago but now it's down to 2.33%????

LouiseR

God sorry to get you excited! I meant 2.5%! It's with Alliance & Leicester http://www.alliance-leicester.co.uk/...est-rates.aspx

It's an Online Saver Issue 5, they've just launched an Online Saver Issue 6 that pays 3% I might switch to that one I think.

*** Edit it's not 2.5% I was looking at the ISA... I'm actually getting 3.15%, so I won't be swapping to issue 6!

iamthecreaturefromuranus

...and what happens if it never gets back to 2.2 again?.

I think we could see 1.6 before this year is out and, if we do see 1.6, to get back to 2.2 you would need the pound to increase in value by over a third. Does that seem realistic? Even to get back to 2.2 from where it is now would need a 20% increase

this charming man

oops.thought this thread was about my wife after our 1st anniversary,she has let herself slip tho.

LouiseR

We'll cross that bridge when it comes to it. I think it will go up again. It's not based on anything other than looking at the FX charts and seeing that it goes up and down all the time.

We'd prefer to wait and see rather than panic and just buy now. Who knows whether it'll be the right choice but it's a choice we're making.

sunflower7

Funnily enough i was with A&L too, and thats what I thought before I came, but I guess I hadn't bargained for the GBP to get soo bad.. and the Oz economy to stay 'not so bad'. I ended up finding a home within 7 months of my arrival. Hadn't planned on that either. Then got concerned about the housing market. Its hard to imagine the exchange rate getting lower, but then who knows. Perhaps it can only get better. Good luck.