Housing bubble in Australia

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Mar 10th 2010, 1:02 am

#796

Steve2009

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by swigski

So, it appears that less people are taking on mortgages and the one's that do are going to have to take on bigger one's to meet the asking price.

Must be all that Chinese cash floating around.

Mar 10th 2010, 1:15 am

#797

asprilla

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve2009

It has been excessively leaned on by property interests to subsidise an almost certain loss on a cash basis with property investment. I haven't been in Australia that long so I don't know how long this has been the case. But the perceived wisdom in Australia over the last two years has been that it is acceptable to make a loss on a cash basis because negative gearing will cover those losses.

I agree. I think that this will have to change going forwards.

Mar 10th 2010, 1:16 am

#798

IndieG

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve2009

Must be all that Chinese cash floating around.

......but it is different here, it's Chinese cash, not like all that Saudi, Russian, and wait, the ruler's money that was floating around in Dubai

This thread reminds me so much of the one below with 1,239 replies lol (I had the highest post count there

)

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showt...rty+apocalypse

Last edited by IndieG; Mar 10th 2010 at 2:01 am.

Mar 10th 2010, 1:24 am

#799

Steve2009

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndieG

This thread reminds me so much of the one below with 1,239 replies lol (I had the highest post count there

)

History has a habit of repeating itself. These discussions are always highly emotive too. In Ireland our Prime Minister famously told the bears to go kill themselves.

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusin..._1010514.shtml
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...ts-456162.html

Mar 10th 2010, 1:29 am

#800

IndieG

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Sound familiar?

Quote:

You're being rediculous, there's plenty more people with plenty more money that will continue the boom.

FACT

Quote:

I don't really have a dog in this fight- it would take a lot more than a 30% fall before I started loosing money but some people rely on what is written here for information (Heaven help them!) and a lot of speculation is being presented as fact.

If the "experts" can't even agree on what is happening in a mature market like the UK then what is the point in writing reports about Dubai?

Quote:

At the risk of stirring up another hornet's nest I think some people (in real life, not just on this board) are getting stressy because they missed out on the property boom last time and are hoping if prices crash they might get another chance. Or they just can't stand the thought of people making a lot of money when they missed out. I don't need to name names- they already know who they are.

Me? I'm chilled

Quote:

Total and absolute bollocks
There will be no crash at all
It wont be allowed....

Mark my words.

Quote:

And your point is Indie?

There's loads of people wanting places here.

It will not happen.

Last edited by IndieG; Mar 10th 2010 at 1:35 am.

Mar 10th 2010, 2:10 am

#801

pomtastic

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by asprilla

So by your line of thinking, investing in a company that does not pay high dividends is a "loss making investment" ?

I think that there are possibly a few flaws in what you are saying.

Here's a clue Asprilla.

The first home I bought in the UK was built in 1970, home computers had just been invented. Since 1970, Microsoft has built up a multi billion dollar empire. My first home is still standing there in the UK, producing nothing.

Mar 10th 2010, 3:19 am

#802

asprilla

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by pomtastic

your first home is provides shelter...and it has done since 1970.

I'm not sure I understand your clue ?

Mar 10th 2010, 3:34 am

#803

Steve2009

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by asprilla

your first home is provides shelter...and it has done since 1970.

i.e. in economic terms it has provided a housing utility and can be valued accordingly. When the capital valuation becomes detached from the value of that housing utility that is when you have to get worried.

The most accurate measure of housing utility costs I believe are rental prices. Although in Australia rental tenants are heavily subsidised by highly geared landlords whose cash loss is their cash gain.

Mar 10th 2010, 6:28 am

#804

MartinLuther

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by pomtastic

But what would have happened if you'd bought Enron instead.

Mar 11th 2010, 3:33 am

#805

Steve2009

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

An update regarding vacancy rates in Australia:

This article puts vacancy rate in Australia at 10%...
http://www.hotspotting.com.au/index....&productId=351

This article puts the vacancy rate in the US at just over 12%....
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/t...ousing-trends/

Ireland is considerably higher.... somewhere between 17% and 25%...
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php.../empty-houses/

Mar 11th 2010, 5:29 am

#806

Geelong Gent

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinLuther

But what would have happened if you'd bought Enron instead.

You would be absolutely "shredded"

Mar 11th 2010, 8:09 am

#807

swigski

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Mortgage stress up again!!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mortg...0311-q0q3.html

Last edited by swigski; Mar 11th 2010 at 8:10 am. Reason: a

Mar 12th 2010, 3:47 am

#808

ozzieeagle

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by swigski

Mortgage stress up again!!

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mortg...0311-q0q3.html

The next 2 interest rate rises will be the litmus test. Can the new foreign buyers carry the market is the crux of the matter.

.

Mar 12th 2010, 8:13 am

#809

swigski

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Re: Housing bubble in Australia

http://www.smh.com.au/business/housi...0312-q2te.html

The cost of buying house in most capital cities as a multiple of average income is around 8 times now compared to 5 times 20 years ago, he said.