ABCDiamond

I prefer the ABS figures, as they seem to agree with my own experiences with actual property prices.

With many of Western Sydney 3 bed houses going for under $300k, and with that area housing 35% of the Sydney population, I doubt the median would be as high as $510k

eg:

or or
About $299k each
But yes, it is about 1 hour by train to Sydney CBD

Going up in price
$476,000 $489,000

ABCDiamond

Also according to RP Data
The question is... do we believe what RP Data-Rismark say ?

If do do put our trust in them, then ..... there is no bubble ?

And remember, I am the one that seems to not agree with RP Data information..

renth

Bullshitters.

"But perhaps the best bit of spruiking was in a little noticed article on Business Spectator, titled “Housing affordability steady over 6 years: Rismark.”

The article by a “staff reporter” states:

“The perception that housing is becoming less affordable is untrue, according to a new housing index which indicates affordability has remained steady or even fallen over the last six years. Investment strategy firm Rismark Australia has released a new index that shows median house prices remained between 3.7 and 4.3 times disposable income over the last six years. Currently, the index has median house prices at 4.1 times household disposable income, while it was 4.2 times disposable income at the end of last year.”

If only the guys at Demographia knew this they wouldn’t have bothered releasing a report that claims Australia’s houses are the most unaffordable in the world ever.

And it flies in the face of the latest research from Fujitsu Consulting which claims that by the end of 2010 “747,000 households [will be] in some degree of discomfort and those in severe stress perhaps as high as 307,000; with around 40,000 defaults annually.”

We don’t know the guys at Demographia and Fujitsu Consulting from a bar of soap, but we’re happy to give their research some airplay. If it achieves nothing else it will help to balance out the pap you’re constantly bombarded with by the mainstream press.

But back to the Business Spectator article. We do love Rismark for their balls. If they don’t like the numbers given by someone else then they go away and make up their own numbers. And voila! House prices are cheap.

Anyway, we’d love to know how Rismark came by their figures, because as usual none of it makes any sense....

Read more here:

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20100...n-housing.html

swigski

If 35% of property sales are going for under $300k in Western Sydney, wouldn't it be obvious that the remaining 65% in the traditionally more expensive areas of Sydney such as Eastern suburbs and North Shore and more lately Inner west where many 3 bed houses sell for over a $1million, push that median right up to the figure I have seen somewhere of $610,000?

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555470

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555524

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555640

On realestate.com.au, each suburb has latest median house price (for what it's worth) with a red arrow pointing up or down.

asprilla

I think you've made a bit of a leap of faith with this statement. Try re-reading your words. ABCDiamond's figures are based on data (and even that might be a bit dodgy at times, but not his fault). But your position is simply based on what you want to believe.

In my opinion of course.

swigski

Your opinion has been noted. I have re-read my words. Look on realestate at a few of the suburbs in these areas at the median house price and maybe you will see that I am not making any leap of faith. I do NOT want to believe property is that price in the areas I am hoping to buy. BUT IT IS. I have been looking every day for the past year!

Take a minute and have a look yourself.

ABCDiamond

Looking at your links:

Median prices per RP Data

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555470
Feb-09 $1,400,000
Mar-09 $895,000
Apr-09 $840,000

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555524
Sep-09 $1,292,000
Oct-09 $995,000
Nov-09 $1,420,000

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin...&tm=1266555640
Feb-09 $2,097,500
Mar-09 $ 465,000
Apr-09 $1,307,500

And the RP Data quote of: "It pays to remember that the price of Australian homes is only around 4.1 times disposable household incomes, which has been unchanged since September 2003.

This tells us that over the last six years Australian house price have very closely tracked changes in household incomes.

Contrary to popular myth, Australia’s house price-to-income ratio is not unusually high, nor has it risen in recent times"

Do you fully rely on RP Data ?
And if so, why do you feel they are more accurate than the Australian Bureau of Statistics ?
And do you also agree with RP data that there is no housing bubble ?


But finally, going on your theory that about 65% of Sydney residents live in million dollar plus homes, it can't be that bad down there can it, especially when the average mortgage is only $397,888

However, looking at some other non Western Sydney suburbs...
Hornsby is $640,500
Engadine is $577,500
Terrey Hills is $607,500


The prices in the areas that you are looking at may well be $1M plus, but there are many more good areas that are not. Look on realestate at a few of the suburbs and you will find many others under $1M.

swans

I never read experts.Pick up the paper on saturday,look at the houses for sale.How many are there for sale in the 450 - 500k bracket.

Two people working on average wages would have a household income of 120 to 130 k.call it 125k shall we.Four times 125K is 500k.could that be anywhere near reality.Would there be many houses available in that bracket,you could probably buy anywhere in 75% of Perth for that.

Why look for experts or articles that people want to agree with.

People see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear.If they want to see that houses are expensive then that is all theywill see or hear.

swigski

Once again, you only select what suits you. So here I go, It's my turn!!


Balmain median prices

Sep-09 $1,027,500
Oct-09 $1,280,000
Nov-09 $1,063,750
Dec-09 $1,225,000

Willoughby median prices

Feb-09 $810,000
Mar-09 $926,000
Apr-09 $1,193,850

Bondi beach median prices

Oct-09 $1,368,000
Nov-09 $1,475,000
Dec-09 $1,635,000

I do not fully rely on ANY data. Especially some of the stuff on here.

Using the same information, the data you 'SELECTED' is obviously different to the data I 'SELECTED' and look like completely different suburbs.

Why do you feel that the ABS statistics are more reliable than anything else?Where do they get their property sale price figures from??

I did not say 65% of Sydney residents live in $1million plus homes.
I said: "The remaining 65% in the traditionally more expensive areas of Sydney such as Eastern suburbs and North Shore and more lately Inner West where many 3 bed houses sell for over a $1million, push that median right up to the figure I have seen somewhere of $610,000?"

Once again, you are trying to twist what I am actually saying.

The areas which you have quoted which are NON West Sydney and being under a $1million are some of the outermost suburbs with some of the longest commutes.

You stated: "With many of Western Sydney 3 bed houses going for under $300k, and with that area housing 35% of the Sydney population, I doubt the median would be as high as $510k."

Using YOUR 3 examples above of Hornsby,Engadine and Terrey Hills, the average for these 3 suburbs is $608,500.
This isn't far off the $610,000 I have previously quoted.

What are you trying to point out or are you agreeing with me?

Nu-Shooz

Agree


What will be will be.

ABCDiamond

Correct

pomtastic

$500K will buy you a 4 x 2 property in a bogan suburb of Perth or it will buy you a unit in a smarter area - FACT. Show me average 4x2 in Perth priced around $500K and I'll show you a bogan suburb.

Any Perthies like to comment on my observations? Renth?

pomtastic

$500K perhaps in woop woop, if you don't mind being isolated and like that kind of lifestyle.

Nu-Shooz

More immigrants will just push the prices up. Gone are the days of cheap housing. It's the Brits fault, again, usual suspects

renth

You knows it!