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Housing bubble in Australia

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Old Feb 9th 2010 | 5:29 pm
  #286  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by pomtastic
From what I can remember, house prices need to rise 7.6% every year for 10 years to eventually double in price. You can get a term deposit of 8% thesedays and without the hassle and cost of maintaining a home - food for thought, eh?

Take my landlord baby boomer for instance. His house I rent is fully paid off and is worth about $620K. He charges me $400 a week rent. Well, if the dumbass sold this house then he'd earn at least double what i'm paying him in a basic Ubank account earning 5.60% interest! Some people haven't a clue.

You are so right ABCDiamond!! Over time large fluctuations are balanced by lower ones. Seeing we've had one almighty housing boom over the last 6 years in Perth then common sense tells me the time for a correction is due.
Your post got me thinking - although on slightly different lines. I have a home that is worth quite a lot (more than the one in your post) and have no mortgage on it. If I was to sell it, stick the money in the bank at 7.5%, rent somewhere for $450pw, I would still be $30-40k better off after tax.

Food for thought.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 5:36 pm
  #287  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by Amazulu
Your post got me thinking - although on slightly different lines. I have a home that is worth quite a lot (more than the one in your post) and have no mortgage on it. If I was to sell it, stick the money in the bank at 7.5%, rent somewhere for $450pw, I would still be $30-40k better off after tax.

Food for thought.
Depends whether you think your house is going to appreciate more than 7.5% in price annually for the next few years, less rates and upkeeping costs. Although, you would be guaranteed of doubling your money in 10 years at 7.5%. $30 - 40K over 10 years would be a nice little retirement kitty though.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 5:46 pm
  #288  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by pomtastic
Depends whether you think your house is going to appreciate more than 7.5% in price annually for the next few years, less rates and upkeeping costs. Although, you would be guaranteed of doubling your money in 10 years at 7.5%. $30 - 40K over 10 years would be a nice little retirement kitty though.
This could be the solution to the global credit crunch - everybody who owns a home without a mortgage, selling and renting. This would reduce lending fees, therefore lower interest rates for the rest of us!
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 8:38 pm
  #289  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by oz2canada
i think with the new immigration law, house prices will go down
simple; less new arrivals -> less house demand -> less prices
There is another way to look this. They may keep immigration numbers the same, but cut down on taxi drivers etc coming in and increase the highly skilled migrant numbers.

If that happens, there will be more money in the pot, and a bigger demand from more migrants that are more financially equipped. This could cause a higher demand for property.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 8:42 pm
  #290  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by pomtastic
You are so right ABCDiamond!! Over time large fluctuations are balanced by lower ones. Seeing we've had one almighty housing boom over the last 6 years in Perth then common sense tells me the time for a correction is due.
I've always said that Perth went up too fast, and would have to crash down at some stage. We agree on this.

I posted this almost a year ago, to show that point.

 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 8:45 pm
  #291  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Wouldn't Oz clog out on loss of taxes collected though to fund facilities and an ageing poplation? Not sure how much it would balance out but would be interested.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 8:59 pm
  #292  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by pomtastic
Actually, my decision has done me quite well. The suburbs I've been looking at in Perth have fallen around 15% over the last 18 months, saving me around $75 - $90K off the purchase price.
Do you mind me asking which burbs you're talking about? The reason ask is in Saturdays West there was section on the real estate market in WA and a breakdown for each suburb over the 12 months of 2009 and Q4 2009. I don't remember seeing anything like that even n the worst performers. Surprisingly Attadale was one of the worst at 12% and I doubt you could buy much in Attadale for $550K.
Admittedly that was REIWA data so possibly talked up a bit.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 9:42 pm
  #293  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

[QUOTE= Your remark about the Australian media not mentioning the Ashes loss is so far off the mark. There were repeated articles in the paper and on the net (which can still be found)

Mate thats BS. The Ashes loss got about 5 lines of a column on the 6th page and i read the printed papers daily. Yes it was discussed on the net because blogs on the net cant be hidden away. The Aussie media is one of the most controlled and biased i have ever read.
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 10:52 pm
  #294  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by TheSun
The Ashes loss got about 5 lines of a column on the 6th page and i read the printed papers daily. Yes it was discussed on the net because blogs on the net cant be hidden away. The Aussie media is one of the most controlled and biased i have ever read.
There is always a positive though....

Barmy bonanza: Ashes loss is good news for Australian tourism
August 25, 2009
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-...0825-ex4g.html
 
Old Feb 9th 2010 | 10:59 pm
  #295  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by EvannTel
Do you mind me asking which burbs you're talking about? The reason ask is in Saturdays West there was section on the real estate market in WA and a breakdown for each suburb over the 12 months of 2009 and Q4 2009. I don't remember seeing anything like that even n the worst performers. Surprisingly Attadale was one of the worst at 12% and I doubt you could buy much in Attadale for $550K.
Admittedly that was REIWA data so possibly talked up a bit.
There is just a hint of plausability that REIWA data may be ever so slightly talked up just a tiny bit.
 
Old Feb 10th 2010 | 8:56 am
  #296  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by EvannTel
Do you mind me asking which burbs you're talking about? The reason ask is in Saturdays West there was section on the real estate market in WA and a breakdown for each suburb over the 12 months of 2009 and Q4 2009. I don't remember seeing anything like that even n the worst performers. Surprisingly Attadale was one of the worst at 12% and I doubt you could buy much in Attadale for $550K.
Admittedly that was REIWA data so possibly talked up a bit.
Mindarie mainly, $700 -800K range and surrounds. Looking at Iluka now as it's becoming a bit cheaper. Mindarie was off 8% last year and similar fall the year before but had a bit of a bounce back in the last 3 months to December due to upgraders and Gorgon talk. Tons of properties in Mindarie over 700K that aren't selling, sub 600K are selling quickly though.
 
Old Feb 10th 2010 | 9:09 am
  #297  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by MartinLuther
Does timber frame make much of a difference? I'm only asking as one of the houses I had in the UK was timber frame construction (possibly because it was situated over the Rotherhithe Tunnel) but was priced the same as the local double brick houses.

I must admit having done some reno works here, there are some advantages to a timber frame building.
timber frame actually costs more to build ( in the uk )
the reason the big builders use it is for a fast turnaround for example takes a few days to put up and then all the other trades are working on it as opposed to bricklayers / carpenters taking 2 - 3 weeks for construction
because of the slowdown over here all of the main builders are going back to tradional build because it is cheaper and because they are not in such a rush to pay out contractors.
 
Old Feb 10th 2010 | 9:17 am
  #298  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

"THE Commonwealth Bank has indicated it could be forced to raise interest rates outside the Reserve Bank's official cycle"

"[The CBA] reported a 54 per cent hike in cash profit to $2.94 billion for the first half of the financial year, exceeding its own profit forecast. The bulk of the CBA's profit was made through home loans, in which it has a 26 per cent market share".

At least the banks are looking after us.
 
Old Feb 10th 2010 | 9:23 am
  #299  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by steve_kelly_and_boys
timber frame actually costs more to build ( in the uk )
the reason the big builders use it is for a fast turnaround for example takes a few days to put up and then all the other trades are working on it as opposed to bricklayers / carpenters taking 2 - 3 weeks for construction
because of the slowdown over here all of the main builders are going back to tradional build because it is cheaper and because they are not in such a rush to pay out contractors.
They were using timber frames were I lived in the UK (near Manchester), they threw them up in no time. I assume they saved a lot on labour (or is the pay not that good in the building trade?).
 
Old Feb 10th 2010 | 10:15 am
  #300  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
There is another way to look this. They may keep immigration numbers the same, but cut down on taxi drivers etc coming in and increase the highly skilled migrant numbers.

If that happens, there will be more money in the pot, and a bigger demand from more migrants that are more financially equipped. This could cause a higher demand for property.
Are taxi drivers on the skills in demand list? I don't think so!

I think this is more directed at student visas. Many students come over to Australia and do the easier courses, hairdressing, chefs (skills in demand), etc, rather than the harder ones, engineering, doctors etc,. Once they pass their exams and have their visas they no longer work in their chosen field - it's just a way of getting into Australia and many go to work in the family businesses or in more lucrative jobs. The trouble is, Australia is still ultimately short on hairdressers and chefs and I can't see why we can't train up our own unemployed youths in the first place. Student unversities and visas are big business in Australia so I can't see this happening, unfortunately.

As for more 'money in the pot', ABCDiamond, again you are right! In fact, so right that this has become a concern for the Labour Party who are calling our immigration a 'Pyramid Scheme'. As with all pyramid schemes/ponzi schemes there comes a time when it all collapses like a house of cards.

Migration like pyramid scheme: Labor MP February 10, 2010 - 9:59PM

A federal Labor MP has likened migration to a pyramid scheme.

Using the analogy of a fraudulent business practice, Melbourne backbencher Kelvin Thomson challenged the idea of bringing in more migrants to support Australia's ageing population.

"The more migrants we bring in, the more older people we will have to look after further down the road," he told the ACT branch of Sustainable Population Australia on Wednesday night.

"If the idea is that we will bring in still more migrants to look after them, this is just a giant pyramid scheme - sooner or later it's going to collapse.

"It's a fraud."

A greying population would do more to solve the problem of youth unemployment, Mr Thomson argued.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-n...0210-nsio.html

As it has become increasingly difficult to buy a home on one salary, surely this will have the long term effect of less housing required and being built. Instead of 100 20 year olds buying a home of their own, it will lead to only 50 homes sold as the 20 year olds have to partner up in order to afford a home. It’s all counterproductive.

Last edited by pomtastic; Feb 10th 2010 at 10:59 am.
 


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