jery_wang

Hi,

I just read this article in http://www.theage.com.au and it may be good idea not to buy house too soon.


Gloom looms as key index slips to negative territory
By Tim Colebatch
Economics Editor
Canberra
September 19 2002


http://www.theage.com.au/
articles/2002/09/18/1032054866281.html

Cheers,
Jerry

Robert Edwards

That story is more aimed at aggressive lenders who are lending to risk
borrowers im a certain risk market, it is not indicative of the broad
housing market which although has probably topped off dues to the past
increases in Government First Home grants is still very buoyant.


"jery_wang" wrote in message
news:419573.1032428475@britishexpats-
.com...
    > Hi,
    > I just read this article in
    > http://www.theage.com.au and it may be good
    > idea not to buy house too soon.
    > Gloom looms as key index slips to negative territory
    > By Tim Colebatch
    > Economics Editor
    > Canberra
    > September 19 2002
    > http://www.theage.com.au/
    > articles/2002/09/18/1032054866281.html
    > Cheers,
    > Jerry
    > --
    > Posted via http://britishexpats.com

jery_wang

So, for immigrant to be (buyers), what would you suggest? Buy now or wait until the price stabilize?

How much longer would you think before the price stabilizes?
The fear is that when price keeps going up, painful fall would eventually follows.

Thanks for your clarification.

Regards,
Jerry

Robert Edwards

How long is a piece of string.....I can't predict the future but if you are
buying a family home in most markets then don't let emotive news stop you,
go ahead and do what you think is right for you and your family, the chances
are you will remain in your home for five plus years anyway and time tells
us lows in this market rarely last longer than 18 months. Interesting side
note to this is that the Prime Minister today announced the appointment of a
Housing Task Force in an attempt to get an many people as possible into
their own homes. Australia already has the highest rate of home ownership in
the world, 82 % I think is the current figure.

Rob Edwards


"jery_wang" wrote in message
news:420234.1032485464@britishexpats-
.com...
    > So, for immigrant to be (buyers), what would you suggest? Buy now or
    > wait until the price stabilize?
    > How much longer would you think before the price stabilizes?
    > The fear is that when price keeps going up, painful fall would
    > eventually follows.
    > Thanks for your clarification.
    > Regards,
    > Jerry
    > Originally posted by Robert Edwards:
    > > That story is more aimed at aggressive lenders who are lending to risk
    > > borrowers im a certain risk market, it is not indicative of the broad
    > > housing market which although has probably topped off dues to the past
    > > increases in Government First Home grants is still very buoyant.
    > >
    > >
    > > "jery_wang" wrote in message
    > > news:419573.1032428475@britishex-
    > > pats.com    "]news:419573.1032428475@brit--
    > >
    > > ishexpats-
    > > .com[/url]...
    > > > Hi,
    > > > I just read this article in
    > > > http://www.theage.com-
    > > > .au/http://www.theage.com.au     and it may be good
    > > > idea not to buy house too soon.
    > > > Gloom looms as key index slips to negative territory
    > > > By Tim Colebatch
    > > > Economics Editor
    > > > Canberra
    > > > September 19 2002
    > > > http://www.theage.co-
    > > > m.au/http://www.theage.com.au/
    > > > articles/2002/09/18/1032054866281.html
    > > > Cheers,
    > > > Jerry
    > > > --
    > > > Posted via http://bri-
    > > > tishexpats.com/http://britishexpats.com
    > --
    > Posted via http://britishexpats.com

Jaj

    >On Fri, 20 Sep 2002 16:14:31 +1000, "Robert Edwards" wrote:

    >How long is a piece of string.....I can't predict the future but if you are
    >buying a family home in most markets then don't let emotive news stop you,
    >go ahead and do what you think is right for you and your family, the chances
    >are you will remain in your home for five plus years anyway and time tells
    >us lows in this market rarely last longer than 18 months.


An article in the SMH a week ago pointed out that house prices in
Sydney fell in real terms by 22% between 1974 and 1997. High
inflation meant that nominal prices were still higher (but did not
keep pace with prices, less so wages).

In a low inflation environment, real property price falls will be
refected in headline price falls too.


    > Interesting side
    > note to this is that the Prime Minister today announced the appointment of a
    > Housing Task Force in an attempt to get an many people as possible into
    > their own homes. Australia already has the highest rate of home ownership in
    > the world, 82 % I think is the current figure.

Ironically, for those young people looking to get into the housing
market, a price crash is exactly what is needed.

According to the Australian's headline of the 21 Sep, that may not be
far off.

Jeremy

jockney

Nobody knows what will happen. Some of my friends in london have been reading negative reports for nearly 2 years and have waited for that crash that has,nt occured,priceing themselves out of the market.Wherever you are it`s the same,buy for the med to longterm,buy what you can easily afford and dont delay for to long.Faint heart never won fair maiden!!or something like that.

Jaj

It ought to be obvious that house prices can't keep rising at 15-20%
annually when retail inflation is at 3% or less, and salaries increase
at 4%.

The point is well made, but the final phase of almost every boom is
characterised by a final upward ascent of prices as people scramble to
avoid being 'left out'

Jeremy

    >On Sat, 21 Sep 2002 23:08:07 +0000, jockney wrote:
    >Nobody knows what will happen. Some of my friends in london have been
    >reading negative reports for nearly 2 years and have waited for that
    >crash that has,nt occured,priceing themselves out of the market.Wherever
    >you are it`s the same,buy for the med to longterm,buy what you can
    >easily afford and dont delay for to long.Faint heart never won fair
    >maiden!!or something like that.
    >--
    >Posted via http://britishexpats.com

jery_wang

Did a research on Google and found this. But this is in Signapore.

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/__4825664f0043f500.nsf/
bac333b8ebf547c14825667300240a95/
cdc84482b2f4dfdf482566f2001afd3e?OpenDocument

The price dropped 30% from the peak during Asian Financial Crisis.

It is just a matter of time. There is up and there is down too. Let's wait and see.

If income cannot catch up the house price increase, who is going to pay? Bank?

jery_wang

You mean this one:

http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/
2002/09/20/1032054963591.htm

trismtr

You may be right. I just read from www.theage.com.au

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...734371850.html

Housing price fall tipped
September 29 2002
By Larry Schwartz

The principal economist of the National Institute for Economic and Industry Research says Australia is heading for a significant housing market downturn within a year.

Craig Shepherd told The Sunday Age that while it was too early to comment on the detail of a report to be published by the institute late next month, the research body expected "quite a large fall in prices" within the next 12 months.

Mr Shepherd said the research showed that although Australian house prices were high by world standards, home ownership was far lower in countries such as Germany, where prices were also high.

Mortgage repayments were similar to 1991 when interest rates were two-and-a-half times higher. This suggested that any further impact on people's incomes, confidence or spending capacity would result in a lot less people with the same capacity to pay. "When those people leave the market, that should lead to quite a large fall in prices," he said.

Mr Shepherd's comments follow a forecast from bank research house UBS Warburg that Melbourne house prices are likely to decline by 36 per cent in the next three years.

Jaj

No different to what happened in the south of England in the 1990s.
It was followed by a number of years where prices did not move at all,
not even to keep up with wages or retail inflation.

Jeremy

    >On Sun, 29 Sep 2002 10:40:42 +0000, trismtr wrote:
    >Mr Shepherd's comments follow a forecast from bank research house UBS
    >Warburg that Melbourne house prices are likely to decline by 36 per cent
    >in the next three years.
    >--
    >Posted via http://britishexpats.com