waggy660

i was just wondering if the recession has hit oz yet , i ave been made redundant and it looks pretty bleak for new year, was wondering if job market in oz would dry up and the call for overseas employees would be less , what difference it may have on likely emigration , i know the exchange rate counts for a lot but how is the oz economy in general??

ABCDiamond

I think we will have to wait a little while longer to see what really happens here.

Some say it will hit, others say we may just miss the actual recession.

Unemployment is increasing, and some say we will hit 5%. Others say 8-10% by the end of 2009.

QLD currently has 3.7% unemployment ABC News Dec 2008

Noocat

Australia is doing well so far. There's lots of talk in the media about a big rise in unemployment during 2009, but some of this may just be fear-mongering, which the media love to do. Right now though retrenchments have been minimal and the unemployment rate is only very slightly above what it was a year ago.

Consumer confidence is not too bad. Interests rates are low. Housing prices have remained steady overall - a few places have fallen but some have also risen. Over Christmas, many shops here reported higher sales than last year, which is a good sign, and as far as I can tell, most Australians are just carrying on as normal... so, as of *right now*, it's not bad, all things considering. Whether it stays this way over the next few months, well, who knows...

sj oldfield

Lets just all hope it doesnt hit here!!

themerlin

Houses seem to be selling not as fast as a few years back, but it's still a good sign.
Not sure if it's got anything to do with the bonus.

IvanM

End September quarter GDP growth was 0.1%. Demand for contractors which often come in on 457 temp visas is dropping. Compared to elsewhere in the world this is good going. Exchange rates against the USD have steadied since a large drop in September.

On the good front government budget and trade is in surplus. Both situations are expected to deteriorate due to the drop in volume and price of commodity exports (35% of exports). The government budget is dependent on commodities because of the massive royalties generated.

On the negative front the current account deficit has been running at worse levels that the US/UK which indicates a heavy reliance on overseas debt funding.

A big positive is the local banks have been resilient and seem to have taken measure in 2004 that other banks in the world should have.

On housing WA is in trouble due to a bubble caused by commodities booming. The hit on finance is troubling the upper ends of the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

Who knows what will happen this year but I doubt it will be great. Compared to the UK I would much rather be here as long as Chinese demand for iron and coal does not collapse.

The Flintstones

Stimulus was timed well, just before Xmas. So economy is holding steady at the moment and as sale figures come out, unemployment rising but not dramatically. Come February expect a recession to kick in.