Steve2009

Who says that it's imminent? The fact that it's a collapse means it doesn't matter when it happens. I agree that waiting around for ten years for it to collapse would take a lot of patience.

If you really want to buy and have patience then you can at least build up a sizeable deposit and ensure it's your own money at risk and not the banks.

If you don't have any burning desire to buy then that's fine and you can ignore the market altogether and accumulate your wealth safe in the knowledge that if you ever did want to buy you can do so comfortably.

iamthecreaturefromuranus

"Who says that it's imminent?"

Well you for one! You are one of the major doomsayers for the property market on here... or have I missed something?

Steve2009

Where have I said anything with regard to the timing of the correction?

pomtastic

Vash, do you honestly think you could come to Australia today and be able to buy a house and live off of $40K a year? Not a hope in hell. You've said before that your UK rent pays for the UK mortgage so spare me the '2 houses' story.

Admit it, you got lucky like me as I came here 9 years ago so you can work out roughly how much I paid for a decent Perth property when the exchange rate was favourable. We weren't smart of financial wizards, just lucky and I read posts from people on this board who obviously have a high standard of education and qualifications and yet they are struggling with high house costs and cost of living. Tell me, how is that sustainable? It isn't, unless Australia decides on an Arab migration policy and only people with a net worth of million can come in - see how ridiculous it is? Australia is and has always been an attractive place for NORMAL workers on average and below UK salary as they want to 'better' their lives. Why do you think so many tradies, hairdresser, nursess and chefs come here - because they were able to afford a better standard of living in Aus compared to UK. This is not the case now. So, unless an influx of super rich dudes come to Aus then I can only see the housing market suffer.


For the record, I've called this crash since 2008, and was buying and selling property 15 years prior.

The game has changed forever, the GFC highlighted to me that all our so called 'wealth' is in fact an illusion, driven by the greater fool and heavily indebted.

Vash the Stampede

At most it was a generalisation, not a straw man argument. You know the old saying: "Empty vessels make the most sound"? That's my point in a nutshell.

I collated 8 years of dire predictions from outspoken members of this forum. None of those predictions came true. Some were contradicted by the market within a matter of weeks. Do these sound like the predictions of people who know what they're talking about? You be the judge.

There's a lot of sour grapes in this thread. Plenty of folks bitter about the fact that they didn't/couldn't get onto the property ladder in time, and now praying for a crash so they can afford something. They're the ones who've been spruiking failed "bubble burst" prophecies for the past 8 years.

Meanwhile, people who refuse to buy into the "Real Estate Armageddon" story are unfairly criticised and/or attacked as self-interested market speculators (which most of us are not). I don't think that's fair.

All I'm doing is trying to re-introduce some perspective.

Grayling

I am in neither camp

Don't have a mortgage and could buy another house tomorrow, for cash, if I thought it would be a good investment....it isn't.

Houses over here are way overpriced and it is unsustainable.

....and I don't usually contribute to discussions about house prices.

Vash the Stampede

Sure, it covers the UK mortgage. Not by much, but just enough to keep things ticking over. Having said that, we'll probably have to sell it next year when I go back to uni.

Yep, we got lucky. No secret about that. But not as lucky as you! We bought our Australian house in 2007, while we were still in the UK. So you're a good 6 years ahead of us.

Was I expected to disagree with any of this? I agree with it all!

The effects of the weaker pound, stronger dollar, GFC, UK recession, steady Australian economic growth, higher interest rates and rampant property speculation have all combined to make Australia a very expensive place to buy and live for everyone (particularly British immigrants).

Last September Four Corners ran a special broadcast on "the new homeless"; Australian home-owners who borrowed beyond their limits and lost their houses when rate rises pushed them over the edge. It's available online here and I encourage everyone to watch it.

Australia's real estate market is not sustainable at its current rate; prices are not sustainable at their current levels; property is grossly over-valued all over the place, and a hefty market correction is well overdue. That's been my view for a number of years, and I see no reason to change it. But will Australia melt down in the same way as the US, UK, Ireland, Iceland/wherever else? I doubt it.

It's called capitalism. Good fun while it lasts, but you don't want to be the last person holding the ticking parcel.

Vash the Stampede

I agree.

Steve2009

You're using the failed predictions of some to discredit the predictions of all. It's like saying Steve Keen is a nut so all who believe property is a bubble must be nuts.
No sour grapes here. I'm in a very very comfortable situation. Thank god.
I think being called a vested interest would be mild compared to the abuse dole out here. And of course those who hold property assets have a vested interest, as do those who do not hold property assets conversely.

Steve2009

I'll watch this later but this really pisses me off, the idea that if you're not a home owner you're homeless. In Ireland now these people are subsidised in their bubble properties by the taxpayer for over 12 months before they are evicted. EDIT: Does Centrelink pay rent?

Steve2009

That documentary is sad. It's terrible that families have to live like this and kids grow up like this. It puts things into perspective regarding how comparatively lucky we are.

Vash the Stampede

Forgot to answer this earlier:

Without enough cash for a reasonable deposit on a reasonable property? Yes, definitely impossible. With enough cash for a reasonable deposit on a reasonable property? Yes, definitely possible - but not without some very painful sacrifices.

For a start, you'd need to buy a tiny house in a scruffy outer suburb. Like this 3x1 bungalow, for $159,000:



Or this 2x1 unit, for $189,000:



I can't imagine anyone having much fun in a place like that.

Even if you managed to find a cheap property, you'd still need all the social security benefits available to a citizen or permanent resident. You'd need a good local support network of friends and/or family. Your standard of living would be below average, and you'd need to save every dollar every day of every week.

I think most people would find this intolerable; a far cry from the great Australian dream. Yet for others it might still be a step up from their previous lives. It all depends on where you're coming from and what you're accustomed to.

freebo

Adelaide Now - Housing boom over as values fall

Vash the Stampede

Overheated market self-correcting to realistic levels.

freebo

Realistic levels look a fair way below where the market is now