Steve2009

Don't forget the utilisation figures too. The dynamics for utilisation are changing as prices detach further from reality. This has some spruikers spooked.

Amazulu

None in my street either.

Steve2009

I know of plenty of empty and derelict properties in close proximity to both Sydney and Brisbane CBDs:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...653847174.html

iamthecreaturefromuranus

I can show you the same in any city in the world though. Houses in shitty, rundown, areas that nobody wants to live in.

TKline

Yes, here's some useful reading.....

Australian housing shortage myth

Australian Housing Bubble article on Associated Content

Australian Property Bubble on Wikipedia

The image below shows how many empty houses are in Sydney alone!



At the first sniff of a downturn, this whole ponzi scheme will collapse and those empties are going to flood the market at the same time. POP!

Steve2009

Pyrmont and northern suburbs of Brisbane are far from 'shitty, rundown areas that nobody wants to live in'. In fact they are likely among the most sought after.

ozzieeagle

According to Aus Post Sources the figure would be closer to 300.000 Australia wide than 800,000K.

I'm basing that on redirection figures and the places where vacant mail is not allowed to accumulate.

We have 250,000 points serviced out of our facility in the Northern Subs of Melbourne. Which was the largest delivery center in Aus... (its now the 3rd biggest) We cover approx 12.5 pct or 1/8th of Melbourne. Our redirection rate is 2.5 pct... that is for all intents and purposes vacant properties. These figures includes businesses. Therefore at our facility there would be approx 7,500 vacant premises in 250,000 addresses. If we were to apply this figure as an average across Melbourne, then the vacancy figure of 7,500 x 8 (or 12.5 pct) = 60,000 dwellings across the whole of Melbourne. Say at a conservative figure Melbourne accounts for 1/6th of dwellings or addressees across the whole of Australia... that would be 6 x 60,000 = 360,000 empty address at any given point in time.

Our figures are accurate, measurable, and without vested interest. Sure there will be anomalies across Australia, but not to any great extent. So even at the most pessimistic I would honestly Guesstimate that there are no more than 400,000 empty address in Australia. Bear also in mind that there are plenty of addresses at one premise... probably at least 1 in 15... so the figure would have to be around 350,000 to 400,000.

The Government definitely uses Apost as much as the Telcos to check on population and it's whereabouts.... especially criminals (we have addressess where we intercept mail.... Shhh) So the figures are probably collated for more than Aus Posts supposed "safety reasons"

Seems strange to me that the figure of 800K empty premises is so widely different from Aus Post figure of 400K on empty addresses. Or the Definite 7,500 from our facility which is 1/8th of Melbourne.












..

Steve2009

Do all vacant premises have mail redirected?

iamthecreaturefromuranus

Don't know about your area, but every house here has the postbox at the front of the garden. If no-one is collecting the post then the postman would realise that pretty quickly... that and the mountain of junk adverts that gets thrown at my house on a daily basis.

mulben

Not deriding there is going to be a market fall but the graph has no bearing.
Those figures are from the 2006 census which means no one was home not
vacant houses - Canada Bay (for example ) only has 9 houses for rent , its a bit of a long bow to think 2000+ are empty

ozzieeagle

Eventually yes... it supposedly gets held at the dead letter office if it begins to accumulate. The postie would happily comply, because it's less mail to handle and carry.

TKline

Well it's government census data so should be accurate. At the end of the day there are lots of houses being held for speculative gain. I don't know why the postal redirection figures are different but maybe a lot of these people let the mail keep coming in to their empty houses and collect it periodically, who knows.

Regarding how many houses are for rent... this is the whole point, these empty houses are being deliberately held out of the rental market so while renters are forced to pay exorbitant rents because of a contrived shortage, speculators are sitting on wasteful empty properties that should be used to house the population not sitting gathering dust.

ozzieeagle

We've just had Two Elections here in Victoria. All political mail has to be delivered to the correct address, if there is any comeback on this policy there is hell to pay. IE: If a postie was caught not delivering political mail even to his known vacant address he would almost definitely get sacked.

We had one section of one round missed for one MP in the previous election, Approx 500 addresses, I dont know how the MP found out about it... probably Aus Post self reported. I do know there was a call for a re-election in that particular seat over it. Two mangers got "moved" from our facility over that one, as they never assigned that section to the Postie. Was a huge scandal within Aus Post... so they are really focused on delivering MP's mail to all addresses.

Thats probably another reason why there is such a focus on Re-Directed mail.

HelenTD

I don't think you can make assumptions on re-directed mail. For example, we have a re-direction on mail sent to my MIL's place, but it is not empty, it is rented out.

ozzieeagle

I know... it does mean for one day at least that place was vacated by that addressee. So in fact there are probably even less vacant places than my figures. I was going to point this out. Our "hold" mail is included in the redirection figures as well, which is where people are away for a period of time, and the mail is held at the Delivery Center.

I'm just pointing out what Aus Posts redirection figures are. Which has to be a real barometer for actual Vacant Premises.