gere

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2270...housing-bubble

Petals

Who knows but we have had

fir trees
ostriches
emus

they all ended up last man standing holds the baby so why not housing, when is the question?

killerhales

This is a very good, fact based article.

There was a much shorter article in the SMH yesterday, talking about the possible softening in commodity prices in the next 2-3 years.

We will be selling up in about 15 months time, so fingers crossed that things hold up OK until then! A "correction" certainly seems due at some time.

This leads me to a thought: sell up now, and rent for the last 15 months of our time here? My wife would never agree to that, so it's more of a theoretical question!

There are still tons of apartment blocks going up in our area (upper North Shore), so there has to be more supply, certainly around us. But people keep buying them (Chinese investors and residents?)

Anyone else with a good crystal ball?

Amazulu

Yet another thread on this shite.

FFS, change the record.

Seneca21

For along time I was of the opinion that a massive crash beyond infinity was about to hit the Australian housing market, but now I am not so sure. Look at the UK. People don't realise it but the UK economy was effectively crunched into **** in 2008 - 2009. It's one of the most dangerously indebted countries on Earth, its currency has been turned into toilet paper, its skilled population are in exodus from the place and unemployment is rising stadily all the time.

And yet house prices are not falling because sellers are simply refusing to sell. If UK can keep house prices inflated to their current suicidal level than Australia certainly can. I would not expect a housing crash in Australia any time soon, even with rate rises. I'm not saying they shouldn't fall - because their high prices are really damaging an entire generation, but that they won't.

renth

Also in the UK the govt. are paying people's mortgages if they can't afford to pay for them, the rate that they are paying is actually more than the mortgage payments in many cases. Plenty of people are actually making money from this. Crazy. The rate at which they pay it is going to be/has been cut though.

I would never underestimate the Australian government and what lengths they are going/will go to keep the property bubble inflated in Australia.

Vash the Stampede

No. I don't know about anyone else, but for me it would be much more expensive to rent than buy. My mortgage is $157,000, I have ~45% equity, and I pay ~$250 a week. There's no way in hell I could afford to rent a comparable house for that money. Better to sit tight, ride out the interest rate hikes, and keep grinding my mortgage down.

This "Chinese investors" thing always leaves me scratching my head. Why do so many people believe that the Chinese are buying up masses of Australian real estate? Where's the evidence for this?

No, but I do have some interesting graphs:

Seneca21

I read about this but I didn't believe it. Do you know how the govt. are making these payments? Just cash in the bank?? How is eligibility assessed - the more bloody feckless you were the more likely you are to get help??

Agreed. I think FTBs are screwed and homeowners are safe.

Seneca21

I think the opposite is true. In Australia rent is much cheaper than in the UK, but in both countries house prices are suicidally high. And also, with respect, how many FTBs could get a decent property in Australia by borrowing 157k?

Rod-Helen-Poppy

rent much cheaper? wouldnt know about that like

Seneca21

You don't get to rent a four bedroom detached house in England for £800 per month. I paid £800 per month for a one bedroom flat near London and that was 10 years ago so God knows what it woudl be now.

pomtastic

It is cheaper to buy than rent everywhere in UK except London.

http://www.propertycommunity.com/pro...operty-uk.html

You'd be hard pushed to find anywhere in Australia where it is cheaper to buy than rent.

asprilla

I was down in Melbourne the other day, I could hardly get on and off the tram because of all those Chinese millionaires....

I expect Melbourne house prices will double within 3 years.

Seneca21

One thing that would seriously ruin the Australian housing bubble would be a crashing of the Chinese economy or their own housing bubble. If China starts to leak and deflate then you know it's only a matter of time before Aussie goes down the pan as well.

Rod-Helen-Poppy

we all have heard stories like that.

after spending time in both places i've found that what i pay per week in rent now would cover my mortgage back home.

renting in sydney is expensive - if you can prove otherwise then i am all ears