MrCro

oouch! Forecast 10%!!!

Q4 well off forecats:- 2 figures on right = % Forecast Actual

Feb-15-2009 3:50 PM ET JP GDP deflator Q4 Q4 0.2 0.9

autorock

The forecast of 10% had me on the edge of my seat...

Now with the actual figure, I'm sitting on the floor! OUCH!

MrCro

This channel is interesting as each min progressers the bottom trend line rate increases so even though holding ground against the line the £ has to be getting stronger.

Sure all the big dealers watching similar lines so in theory will start selling AUD and buying £'s now. If so, rallies next peak should be around 2.35!!??

Mrs Kiwi

Sounds good to me !

MrCro

was all a bit flat today with the yanks on bank holiday! Let's see what tommorow brings. Strange world the yen got stronger today after poor GDP results last night????

autorock

Looks like it hit that support line today so hopefully tomorrow or the day after we'll see some decisive positive movement...

bcworld

Shipping Index’s 147% Rise Signals Jump in Commodity Currencies

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts the Australian dollar will appreciate 9.5 percent to 71 cents in six months
.......
Millennium started buying Australian dollars this month and Norwegian kroner in January. Benson predicts that the krone will appreciate 5 percent to 8.30 per euro, and the Aussie will hit 72.50 cents versus the U.S. dollar, with “high 70s quite achievable.”
........
China’s “stimulus is really just getting under way,” Tien said. “What that means is, within about one month or two months, you are going to see a spur in commodity demand. We think it’s a great time” to invest in kroner and Aussies.
.........
“One of our most favorable currency bets is that the Australian economy is going to recover through being leveraged off Asia much better than Canada,” said Singapore-based Michael, who advises betting on the Aussie against the loonie.

DownUnderPaddy

and with reports like the following, you honestly have to consider the fact that this is as good as the rate is going to get for quite some time.
In fact, in a couple of months time and with hindsight, 2.20 may look like an awesome rate !

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/forex-1602.html
http://www.thriftyscot.co.uk/022009/...-sterling.html

...and for every report that comes out like these, there will be another that will say something different

$3 for a pound.....any day now, any day, it's coming, right around the corner.....!!

MrCro

well it seems to be climbimg and been hitting 2.23 this morning. It's definately bounced off that lower trend line on my chart!

Question is what the yanks will do having returned from a bank holiday??? 2pm onwards we'll see how they are trading.

I have a plan to get 2.6 without getting 2.6 anyway and hoping this channel trend continues as that's what I'll be using! Will mean more transfers but I will end up like I'd got 2.6 hopefully!!!!

mindblower

:[/QUOTE]

2.20 is the new support level it seems.

Cant see an imminent stellar rise yet.

MrCro

2.20 is the new support level it seems.

Cant see an imminent stellar rise yet.

[/QUOTE]

when you look at the last 5 waves, these are 2 weeks apart from peak to trough so unless some crazy positive or negative news breaks the recovery pattern should remain constant.

If theory holds on the present pattern (prob about 1% chance in this climate!!) but IF it does then the top trend line would be hit in 10-14 days at 2.30+

That's in theory but this seems to be like tossing a coin now UP or DOWN anybody????

Stu Ward

Apart from a silly spike, the rate has roughly been between 2.1 and 2.2 for a long time

The only people who think the trend is an upward climb are those who want it to be.

Stu

MrCro

the chart speaks for itself and presently, it is upward!

autorock

I'm with you MrCro...

It's been on an upward trend for about 6 weeks now. Channelling nicely... (Although anyone would be mad to deny that it could end any day, at present, it's definitely upward.)

The positive bounce off that support line is undeniable... Right on time, on cue - human nature is so predictable...

With the absence of a strong fundamental reason to swing wildly again, the general sense out there is that with the ££ is undervalued or the $$ is overvalued.

Having said all that, I wouldn't bet past the next peak!! That's when I'll be changing my wad!

Of course, I'll kick myself if it goes beyond that but in these crazy times, you have to be happy with anything!

MrCro

You can always then wait until dollar bounces back and bring it back to capitalise (or even bring back the equivilant of what you sent and leave the 'profit' in Oz) then wait for rate to up again and have another go!

I plan to change some next peak too and then if sinks some in week or too after I'm bringing it back!! Gonna ride a few waves (sounds aussie!) as I plan to up my fund to what I would need to be same as getting 2.6 overall on lower rates (hope that makes sense??).

Danger is like you say it may carry on, i.e. we buy at c2.3 when near line again and it could keep going and break this pattern!!??

But I have at least 9 months to go so time for tide to turn again and no doubt it will. Only slightly risky as I don't actually lose anything as will still have the $'s!

I read that RBA not planning to reduce interest rates again next month so don't know what effect that will have, big reduction 1% this month didn't weaken dollar so will no drop bizzarley cause it to drop???? So unpredictable on the fundeMENTALs!