Hi, does any one know if the exchange rate is going to get any better than 2.54 which it seems to be at the moment,we have just entered into a contract for some land and have a completion date of 28th Jan 2005 :scared: we are hoping it might creap up a little
we keep hearing about the coal in Australia doubling in price, will this make a differece to the exchange rate.
we where in oz 6 mths ago and got 2.65, this may of given us faulse hope.

No onebody knows. Commodity induced $A appreciation would be caused by:
1. market anticipation of purchases of $A,
2. actual purchase of $A by commodity exporters.

The serious increase in money flow due to commodity price increases will not begin until lots of contracts are sealed in 2005 April.

I honestly don't think it will, I have started my transfers now on the basis it isn't going to get any better.
Australia announced a $6bn budget surplus which has sent the AUD higher and the RICS survey out today is grim on UK house prices.
UK/AUD down 0.5% as I write this.
I always said I will be happy at $2.50 so anything above is a bonus. Bank West will be handling my transfer at 0.0025 points over interbank so I am happy with that too.

If anyone DID know how exchange rates were going to change they could get very rich! The rate has improved recently, only a few weeks back it was down to $2.37, in January it was even lower. Looking at the exchange rate over the last ten years or so $2.55 is a fair rate, we can't pin our hopes on it getting back to 2001 levels. I'm reasonably happy to get anything over $2.50 although there's nothing worse than seeing the exchange rate plummet just as you need to change some money!

In 1996 it fell below $2, let's just hope there's no repeat of that until we need to change dollars into pounds!

Please tell us more about how you can get 0.0025 points above the interbank rate from Bank West!! HIFX, Commonwealth Bank etc will always offer a little below the interbank rate, the exact amount depending on the sum transferred. I did a transfer with HIFX last week (a small amount admittedly) for $2.5220 when the interbank rate was around $2.54 (no fees charged by them or by our UK bank because we sent a cheque rather than did a CHAPS transfer, some may give a better rate but fees are involved).

As other say it is impossible to predict rates and we can only give guesstimates of what might happen. My gut feeling FWIW is that the interbank rate won't get any/much better than $2.55. As said the economic indicators if anything point more to a firming rather than a weakening of the AUD against the £stg. 'Quins' is in the know re commodity prices and seems to think movements might be 5 or 6 months off.

It looks like that poster who keeps changing his username won't have to eat his sporran after all - the $ should be above $2.50 to the £ by Christmas.

OzTennis

While the rate was at its lowest a few weeks ago there was a thread on here where there was lots of speculation and the concensus was clearly that it would go lower still. A month later it is 20 cents higher.

Nobody knows which way it will go. My advice would be that if you would be reasonably happy with the current rate tap into it now and remove the uncertainty. (You can buy forward at a small percentage cost, so if you won't have the money for a while you can still do it now)

I don't know if Bank West I am geting is available for everyone, I am opening business and personal accounts with them, the 0.0025 is the pence figure e.g. if the IBR is 0.40 then my rate is 0.3975 so I guess I loose a quarter pence for every pound . Inverse I guess is less than a cent. Fees will be around £100 in all.

Nothing compared to the massive loss in the £ today 1.3% down currently, sickening really. I think it may have found a level now and will bounce a little.. $2.52 by the end of the week I think.

As for Mr Sporran.......... wondering what he has for xmas dinner will not play heavily on my mind.

If you are buying AUD and selling GBP and the Interbank rate is quoted at 0.40, then I would think the rate you get will be HIGHER (ie 0.4025) not LOWER (0.3975) otherwise you are getting BETTER than the interbank rate.


The differance of 0.0025 on a AUD/GBP (eg:0.4000)quote is actually MORE than a cent.(approx 1.50 cents)

eg:
0.4025 = 2.4845
0.4000 = 2.50
0.3975 = 2.5157


Cheers

Yes you are correct, my calc was the wrong way round. Too much Christmas pudding. Still a good deal though.

Just banked a cheque at Bank of Queensland. £550 exchanged for $1,361.39,so that's 2.4752 for a small amount, and the bank charged $7 for the transaction fee. So it ended up as 2.4625.

Not to bad for such a small amount. But.... it takes 4 weeks to clear !!

Two weeks ago I got 2.3254 on a credit card transaction.

The £ is having a bad day today & the AUD/GBP is down to 2.4950

I bet sporran tastes rotten!

The latest (about a week ago) longer term forecasts/projections I have received (from a large Australian Bank) for GBP/AUD are:

........................ DEC 04 ................... MAR 05 ...................JUN 05 ....................... SEP 05

GBP/AUD-:......... 2.3810 .................... 2.4390 ................... 2.4390 ....................... 2.5641



........................ DEC 05 ................... MAR 06 ................... JUN 06 ....................... SEP 06

:....................... 2.6316 ................... 2.7027 .................... 2.5641 ........................ 2.5000

........................DEC 06
........................2.5000


Current Spot : 2.4962


Looks like their expecting a bit of a fall within the next week or so if their end DEC 04 expectation is to be in court !......But what do us "FX professionals" know!.....Good Luck


Cheers