Has anyone else noticed that the exchange rate is dire at the moment. It's dropped from 2.39 to 2.378 just today.

Has anyone else heard whether it's gonna slip further and further?

Just completed on house sale today, and wouldn't want to effectively lose thousands of $$$.

Paul

The rate has been dropping since the middle of April when it hit a high of 2.5. I hope it goes back up soon as I am about to complete my house sale too.

I read in the Courier Mail that $ would weaken (i.e. we would get more $ / £) so I'm hoping too. I'm about to pay my $100k bond and want the best deal. It's currently over £42k

Today could have been a temporary blip because it was announced in the press that the MPC are predicted to leave interest rates unchanged on Thurs.

I was hoping that was the case too

The australian had an article yesterday suggesting the rate would slip further ( get worse for UK People) then recover to a $AU to $US rate of .66c vs .77c they think it will peak at.

So its going to get worse before it gets better according to the Australian financial guy.

Bugger I must have mis-read that

any ideas on the timescale of the AU$ recovery? Am I right to say we want the interest rates to go up in oz for the rate to rise?(just temporarily of course!!) the timing of this drop couldnt be worse for me...(tres selfish)

I'm no economist, but the reality is shown here:

http://www.economist.com/markets/Bigmac/Index.cfm

Surely no-one really knows what is going to happen!! If they did, then they'd be squillionaires all over the place......

SS

That's the truth of it. All we can do is speculate (and hope).

Absolutely correct. The rate may go back up in the next few months but it is just as likely to go down even further.

I remember a post a few months back where someone was asking whether to transfer while the rate was 2.55 and they said they were going to hold on until it rose a bit further. I don't know whether they took my advice (that 2.55 was a decent rate and it was not worth taking a risk waiting) or whether they held on and are kicking themlselves.

If you are selling a UK property to buy in Australia also bear in mind you need to take into account UK house prices, exchange rates and Aussie house prices at the same time. If UK house prices fall (they are in some areas at the moment), exchange rates fall (they are at the moment) and Aussie prices rise (they are rising strongly in Perth for example) then you are losing on all 3 fronts the longer you wait.

what sites are people using to monitor the exchange rate? We have sold our house and the money is in the bank (and will be staying there until the rate creeps up a bit during the Aussie summer)

Two sites I use are XE and HIFX:

http://www.xe.com/ucc/
http://www.hifx.co.uk/members/quotes.asp

Sign up and they will email you the exchange rates for whatever currencies you want on a daily basis. The HIFX site will also give you 'real time' rates whenever you want them. These are the interbank rates which are not quite as good as you or I would get if exchanging.

Interest rates are being set in Australia and the UK this week (today by RBA, tomorrow by BofE I think - if you sign up to HIFX they will also email you the major weekly announcements in UK and Oz ).

The pundits expect over the next 2 years that Australian interest rates will go up by as much as 2-3% or more but that in the short term they will remain steady (no change expected this week). Other things being equal higher interest rates can strengthen a currency (higher return on savings and investments invested in $A's). Of course it's not as simple as this as other things might happen - exports fall as goods more expensive, imports rise as foreign goods cheaper, inflation may set in, it depends what other interest rates are doing 9/11 type events happen, trade figures are releasedd, etc, etc.

I personally don't expect the dollar to strengthen or weaken much in the very short term, probably looking at high $2.30's for a time but who knows months and years down the track? The UK has issues which might affect the £.

Whether or not the $ will weaken in a few months which is what you want is anyone's guess.

OzTennis

Surely the decision not to increase rates should weaken the $ (as it becomes less attractive). This recent dip may be because of the EU "no votes"; I noticed that the euro has weakened considerably against the $ and the £ may be going down in sympathy (because of the close ties to Europe ).

I reckon there's going to be some turbulence until the EU situation is fudged - sorry - sorted.

A.