Dalyellup
 

Hi guys,

We have been in WA for about 3 years - love it here.

The thing is we bought a block in Dalyellup 2 years ago - built on it recently and it is now about completed.

OK

I don`t really want to move there! - After being inland from Jurien Bay for 3 years I have grown to like the ruralness and community's of small town Australia.

Dalyellup feels a but like the Truman Show - anyone have positive thoughts on this?

cheers

Monkey

Re: Dalyellup
 

If you don't want to move there, why don't you sell it and use the proceeds to purchase somewhere you do want to live?

Re: Dalyellup
 

because the price has gone down about 10%

Worst in WA - This was because it was fetching the best premiums in WA.

So its best to wait it out a bit I think.

Its now a bad place - far from it, it just a bit too populated for us now.

I like my 100 acres of bush!:(

Re: Dalyellup
 

Couldn't you just rent it out for a while?
I quite like Dallyellup, but if you've been living out in the sticks I can see that it might seem a bit too much like suburbia.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Rent it out, I dont know if it's true but it's always been said in the local media that they are crying out for rental properties.

FWIW we lived on Treendale until recently..... similar to Dalyellup but on a much smaller scale. We built and I was so excited about it all... but when we moved in it felt claustraphobic - rooftops all around plus the thought of someone building next door at any point made us up sticks again. Now we live in Leschenault on an acre block surrounded by trees - smaller house but oh, so much happier!!! :thumbup:

Re: Dalyellup
 

yes I agree,

Nearly bought the house we are living in now for $400,000 3 years ago.

Asked the owner to consider again - evaluation - $750,000!

And our has gone down in 3 years!!!:frown:

PS - have a look at this: http://www.dalyellup.pixelcase.com.au

Re: Dalyellup
 

Have to agree if you have been living rural near Jurien Bay area. You will hate a big sprawling estate.

We live North of Perth, and now think we would prefer to buy something rural or smaller estate, or if we can an small acerage.

In the UK we lived rural(house was not even in a village), then we went and worked in abroad in a big city. Have to say city was great and people friendly but we all craved our bit of countryside and space.

Gems

Re: Dalyellup
 

Hi, like yourselves we purchased a block in Dalyellup 3 years ago - as yet have not made it out there, awaiting children to finish education (A Levels & GCSE) - fin July next year - unsure as to whether to build on land? Gather from your last thread market has dwindled. Did you build yourselves or commision a builder? Your views would be appreciated. TTFN

Re: Dalyellup
 

if i were you i'd hold onto it for a while
there was an article in our local paper about dallyellup - there are something like 120 houses and blocks on the market (and 1600 on the estate in total) and prices are still dropping

Re: Dalyellup
 

Yes - interesting article...

From boom to bust for late-comers to Dalyellup

Re: Dalyellup
 

prices are dropping like a lead balloon,had to take a loss on my house to get rid of it,many people i know are trying to sell with no luck.BGC are buying a lot of the land to put homeswest on (State housing) as the land prices are some of the cheapest in WA.Never has a estate fallen in reputation so quickly,:thumbdown: a aussie workmate told me this

Re: Dalyellup
 

Not just Dalyellup, anyone who bought within the last year/18 months could be in the pame position.

The suburb of Tapping springs to mind, a friend bought an investment house there "because prices can only ever go up". I didn't bother arguing that they had already peaked. She is STILL regarded by all her friends (including my wife) as a an expert with money, financially astute. Problem is she's now working full time now to make ends meet and by all accounts is struggling whereas before she didn't have to work at all.

I think she has a block in Dalyellup too.

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There goes the neighbourhood.

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oooh yeeees:p

Re: Dalyellup
 

Re: Dalyellup
 

Don't you want to scream at those who consistently said that Perth prices will never fall?

Falling base metal prices, big drops in iron-ore spot prices and the difficulty in getting credit all adds to the mix.

(But interestingly, next to the above article in yesterday's paper I saw an ad for no-doc mortgages - and I thought that sub-prime lending didn't happen in Australia...?!)

Re: Dalyellup
 

And another thing....!

The future is now very uncertain - everyone is banking on business as usual with regards to China and immigration to WA in terms of keeping house prices high.

But, given the mining boom, migration into WA over the last 18 months has probably been as high as it ever will be but this has failed to even keep Perth house prices steady. So how will it do so in the future...?

And if...IF....recession in Europe and the US causes Chinas exports to stumble (as falling metals prices seem to indicate) and a lack of credit causes mortgages to dry up then Perth could face the mother of all house price collapses

Re: Dalyellup
 

interesting view,I think it could be right :ohmy:

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mining boom is already over i'm afraid, a lot of the companies are finding it very hard to finance new operations, jobs on hold or cancelled, may come good again if the banks start working otherwise even perth is in for a rocky time. add to that the likely takeover of rio tinto by bhp, that will shed thousands of jobs.

Re: Dalyellup
 

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Telstra in Perth told its accounting staff yesterday, that in 3 weeks they will be out of job. A whole floor will be empty. Jobs go to Sydney.

Although the job ads in Sat paper are down by quite a bit. pity, that the West Australian doesn't write any more on the front pages how many job ads are in the paper. They stopped it a few years ago.

Re: Dalyellup
 

A no-doc mortgage isn't the same as sub-prime lending in the US.

For starters, despite its name you do need some documentation to show your income. But the important difference is that you can only get between 65% and 80% of the value of the property.

Sub-prime mortgages were often "ninja" loans (no income, no job, no assets), where people were given a mortgage with no payments to be made for a few years (interest was just added to the loan amount). These loans were even given on properties that couldn't be resold on the open market. Many lenders ignored the voluntary guidelines for clients that reputable lenders followed.

So, no-doc/low-doc mortgages aren't in the same league as the subprime loans.

Gina

Re: Dalyellup
 

I work for FMG (for Worley Parsons really but on the FMG project). I had a chat with Graeme Rowley yesterday actually. Here's the situation:
Original project was for a mine/rail/port to do 45mtpa - project finished.
We are just finishing the design (desands plant, lump circuit, 2nd stacker, 2nd berth) for optimisation to take this to 55mtpa should be finished early next year.
We are just starting the design to go to 80mtpa - new mine, 60kms of rail, major port upgrade. This is hoped to be finished by the end of next year. This will be financed out of company revenue due to inability to get finance due to current crisis.
Further upgrades will happen when finance can be obtained, or from company revenue if it cannot.
FMG, like BHPB, Rio and Vale sell most (all in the case of FMG) of their iron-ore on long term contracts that are negotiated between the buyers and suppliers. This price went up 90% this year. The price is expected to fall in next year's negotiations - by how much nobody knows yet.
Iron-ore has quadrupled in price in recent years. Mines were profitable at a third of today's price.
Rowley, along with BHPB and Rio are confident in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy and the facts of that country's industrialisation/urbanisation. Now you could say that 'well they would say that wouldn't they?' and there is some truth to that. They have to 'appear' confident to the market/investors/customers. On the other hand they also have to be realistic. They are not going to commit multi-billions (which they are) if they cannot make money out of it. Chinese growth is expected to fall from 11% to 8% in the short term.
BHPB and Rio do not have funding problems.
Smaller companies with no revenue stream are going to struggle to get funding and some may fold.
BHPB is just starting RGP6 (they were only doing RGP2 a few years ago).
Rio is continuing their expansion.
FMG is still expanding.
Molly Mines has just got interim funding to continue their project.
The Port upgrades at Karratha and Port Hedland are continuing.
Gorgon and North West Shelf LNG are continuing.
Rankin 1 and 2 (oil) are continuing
The new port at Oakagee (sic) is continuing.
Iron-ore projects out of the midwest are continuing.
Inpex has just started out. Although this will be built near Darwin, a load of plant and piping will need to be done in WA.
A new mine near Albany has just managed to get funding.
These are just off the top of my head - there are many more projects that are doing just fine.
Uranium is coming.
Major infrastructure projects are coming.

WA is gonna be okay.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Well, can't argue with any of that.

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Cool. Some interesting info about big infastructure in this article too:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...60-601,00.html

Re: Dalyellup
 

Bridie thanks for the advice, mucho appreciatto, however feeling daunted by other comments regarding Dalyellup. In a quandry as to whether we should look elsewhere (original plan was to rent on Dalyellup whilst we managed the build) was hoping to do it ourselves. Our friends live there also, to date they have not given us any negative feedback?

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Not IF..........WHEN.
Not COULD...........WILL

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Amazulu - just going back to your post above....

Why do you think that the FMG is getting hammered so much on the stock market if things are all rosy?

Was the stock over-priced before? Does the stock market have less faith than the miners in the China boom - and if so, why? Or is it something else?

I read today that Fortescue has lost 2/3 of it's share value over the last three and a half months...

Re: Dalyellup
 

FMG was at nearly $13 a few months ago now it is about $4.50. I don't know. Andrew Forrest blamed short sellers - and there may have been some truth to this. Since short selling was stopped the share price has been $4.50-$7.00. Here's a scenario: Although FMG is operational, it is really only ramping up. Full production - 55mtpa - is not expected until next year. Their costs are high and I guess the project is still in a risky stage. Also there is a lot of uncertainty in the market. Forrest and Rowley are still very confident about the future, but their inability to get finance for expansion has got to have an impact. They will get to where they want to be - 200mtpa and beyond - but it will take longer than originally planned.

Re: Dalyellup
 

You'd hope so, however if the share price carries on diving they're looking at fighting for their survival, or more likely being bought by one of the big two.

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Short selling can't be blamed on drops like today's though when it lost around 11% - way more than the stock market and other miners. And I'd have thought that the stage of FMG with regards to where it is on the production cycle would have been priced into the share price months and months ago.

I don't know - your earlier post about all of the projects which are on-going and which are planned is certainly convincing but the hammering that FMG (and to a lesser extent Rio and BHP) has taken seems to suggest that the market knows something or suspects something which goes way beyond the list of projects.

Rio has fallen from over $150 a share in May to $85 today - not far off a 50%fall in 4 months.

And what I find puzzling about this is that the one thing that is supposedly going to see Australia through the credit mess is the demand from China and the earnings from Rio, BHP and FMG. If the markets agreed with this prognosis then surely the share prices of the miners would have fallen proportionately less than the shares in other stocks...?

Re: Dalyellup
 

It's because of the fear that the drop in commodity prices through the US/Euro recessions causing China's earnings to fall and therefore demand for Australian raw materials. Spot prices on most metals are plummetting and mining companies as well as everyone else cannot get funding for new ventures. Depends on how long this continues but I fear the mining boom in WA is well and truely over.

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Yes possibly - but if you read Amazulu's earlier post it seems that the market is thinking one thing and the miners are thinking something completely different. This is what I find interesting...

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BTW, back to housing for a minute.

Had a complete shock today when I received the latest free REIWA "newspaper" in the post. The headline story was from an RE outfit called Ausnet which basically was very gloomy about the outlook for Perth house prices over the next two years and was trying to persuade sellers to stop holding out for a recovery and to start pricing realistically.

For the first time that I can recall, REIWA said that migration to WA and the China story are not going to be the answers to Perth's price slump.

First time I've read something so gloomy from REIWA and the first time I've read something from REIWA which debunked the China and in-migration price support theory.

This was in the freebie newspaper entitled Real Estate News (North) or something - anybody else get this?

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They've finally realised (too late) that turnover is the lifeblood to estate agents, not ever rising prices.

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Maybe all the uncertainty in the global economy is causing this. It certainly explains a lot of the other share price falls. Seems like everyone is edgy. Someone posted a rumour that Steve Jobs had suffered a heart attack. This caused Apple stocks to plummet. When the rumour was found to be untrue, Apple stocks rebounded.

Lots of crazy shit happening at the moment.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Not so sure about this. Andrew Forrest has a majority sharholding in FMG. His mate Graeme Rowley has a big chunk too. If you listen to what Forrest is saying (and believe him, which I do), he is more interested in opening up the Pilbara to competition and breaking the duopoly of BHPB and Rio than making loads of money and then selling out. I think he wants to make loads of money but on his terms. I've spoken to him a few times, and listened to him talk on numerous occassions and he is not your average billionaire. The difference between him and Kloppers and the Rio guy is stark.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Just read this from today's Independent (live update of the LSE):

Miners added to the pain after investment bank UBS warned earnings in the mining sector could fall by a further 46 per cent in 2008. It also said that commodity prices could drop another 25 per cent.


The whole sector tumbled, with Kazakhmys off 19 per cent or 109.5p to 459.5p and Antofagasta down 46.75p at 333.5p.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Just got this:
http://seek.com.au/users/apply/index...35&cid=jobmail

That's a lot of people. I know agents are known to talk shit at times but I know this mob, and they are the most reliable engineering agency in WA.

Re: Dalyellup
 

Graeme Rowley just gave us all a talk about the current situation and he kind of confirmed some of the points I made in my earlier post. I think they are worried about the share price - it's just over $4 at the moment - and this is weighing them down a bit. But he also said that if the company can ramp up production, deliver the tonnage of a good quality product at a price they can make a profit on, then the revenue will come in, make more profit, increase the share price and allow for expansion. He reiterated that they believe the fundamentals of the Asian iron-ore market are sound.

Time will tell.