The current UK situation, and it will happen in Oz.
#1
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Joined: Feb 2008
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Poorly paid workers make bad customers. It's the internal conflict that makes capitalism work. The reason capitalism is in the brown stuff at the moment is that workers in the developed world are badly paid compared to the cost of living and can't afford to buy all the stuff on sale with their wages. For a while they plugged the gap with credit, but now workers in the developed world are maxed out with loans too. Think Chinese factory workers paid $200 a month are going to step in and fill the demand gap? Don't make me laugh. The solution should be deflation in the developed world so that workers can afford to buy what they make, but of course our idiot politicians are doing everything they can to prevent that. In the 1920-21 depression in the United States, a rapid collapse in prices of around 15-20% in one year did exactly that. Unemployment rose briefly, the stock market fell 47%, GNP fell 5%, many businesses failed, and within less than 2 years there was a strong private sector recovery. Sadly our government has opted for the 20-year long play Japanese import edition. We will have the same amount of correction in the end, it will just take a lot longer and feel much worse than a quick sharp shock.
The non-TFH scenario, late 2009 onwards:
1. QE and zero interest rates weaken the pound
2. Rising cost of imports creates inflation
3. BoE forced to raise interest rates and stop QE
4. Higher interest rates lead to massive private debt default by individuals and businesses and collapse in new lending
5. Banks ask for more bailout cash; Government can't/won't pay so more major banks go under; Equity markets crash
6. Reduced lending to individuals leads to house price crash and reduced consumer spending
7. Reduced consumer spending causes inefficient businesses to go bankrupt, unemployment rises and wages fall
8. Reduced spending and higher interest rates encourage the employed to save, the pound stabilises, banks recapitalise and inflation falls
9. Debt slowly cleared from the economy
10. Market niches left by failed businesses + lower wages + fresh capital from savings = RECOVEREH
The non-TFH scenario, late 2009 onwards:
1. QE and zero interest rates weaken the pound
2. Rising cost of imports creates inflation
3. BoE forced to raise interest rates and stop QE
4. Higher interest rates lead to massive private debt default by individuals and businesses and collapse in new lending
5. Banks ask for more bailout cash; Government can't/won't pay so more major banks go under; Equity markets crash
6. Reduced lending to individuals leads to house price crash and reduced consumer spending
7. Reduced consumer spending causes inefficient businesses to go bankrupt, unemployment rises and wages fall
8. Reduced spending and higher interest rates encourage the employed to save, the pound stabilises, banks recapitalise and inflation falls
9. Debt slowly cleared from the economy
10. Market niches left by failed businesses + lower wages + fresh capital from savings = RECOVEREH
#2
I disagree I have no trouble buying anything I want.
The reason people struggle is because they pop out a bunch of kids and then complain that they cannot afford them. Maybe they should have thought of that before having them !
The reason people struggle is because they pop out a bunch of kids and then complain that they cannot afford them. Maybe they should have thought of that before having them !




