Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Jul 17th 2010, 6:38 pm
#1
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Posts: 383
Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
I'm just looking at the population-projections which forecast that both Sydney and Melbourne will become cities of over 7m inhabitants by the year 2040.
It is one thing to make predictions and another how accurate they turn out to be. In my opinion, the idea of both cities having more than 7m inhabitants in 30 years time, is simply unrealistic.
Why do I think it is unrealistic? Well, let me explain. The whole of Australia is even today at the very brink of how many people the land can support. The population of Australia is now about 20m people. Perhaps the land will be able to support another 10m or so but that will be the absolute limit.
The idea of two cities with 7m people in a country of 30m people just is not feasible.
I'm all open to differing opinions on the subject. Let them come if you disagree with me!
It is one thing to make predictions and another how accurate they turn out to be. In my opinion, the idea of both cities having more than 7m inhabitants in 30 years time, is simply unrealistic.
Why do I think it is unrealistic? Well, let me explain. The whole of Australia is even today at the very brink of how many people the land can support. The population of Australia is now about 20m people. Perhaps the land will be able to support another 10m or so but that will be the absolute limit.
The idea of two cities with 7m people in a country of 30m people just is not feasible.
I'm all open to differing opinions on the subject. Let them come if you disagree with me!
Last edited by THR; Jul 17th 2010 at 6:41 pm.
Jul 17th 2010, 8:06 pm
#2
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Posts: 14,188
Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
I'm just looking at the population-projections which forecast that both Sydney and Melbourne will become cities of over 7m inhabitants by the year 2040.
It is one thing to make predictions and another how accurate they turn out to be. In my opinion, the idea of both cities having more than 7m inhabitants in 30 years time, is simply unrealistic.
Why do I think it is unrealistic? Well, let me explain. The whole of Australia is even today at the very brink of how many people the land can support. The population of Australia is now about 20m people. Perhaps the land will be able to support another 10m or so but that will be the absolute limit.
The idea of two cities with 7m people in a country of 30m people just is not feasible.
I'm all open to differing opinions on the subject. Let them come if you disagree with me!
It is one thing to make predictions and another how accurate they turn out to be. In my opinion, the idea of both cities having more than 7m inhabitants in 30 years time, is simply unrealistic.
Why do I think it is unrealistic? Well, let me explain. The whole of Australia is even today at the very brink of how many people the land can support. The population of Australia is now about 20m people. Perhaps the land will be able to support another 10m or so but that will be the absolute limit.
The idea of two cities with 7m people in a country of 30m people just is not feasible.
I'm all open to differing opinions on the subject. Let them come if you disagree with me!
Jul 17th 2010, 11:47 pm
#3
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Jul 18th 2010, 12:10 am
#4
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Why do I think it is unrealistic? Well, let me explain. The whole of Australia is even today at the very brink of how many people the land can support. The population of Australia is now about 20m people. Perhaps the land will be able to support another 10m or so but that will be the absolute limit.
Jul 18th 2010, 1:06 am
#5
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Joined: Jun 2010
Location: VIC, Australia
Posts: 397
Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Water still remains a big issue. There has been a lot of rainfall this year over a big part of the continent and Melbourne along with most of Victoria has done pretty well out of that too, the fact remains that over the last 13 years, in general, there has been a record deficiency of rainfall over southern Australia in particular and an increase in temps. Now that we are starting to see 48C temperatures in some Melbourne suburbs, like in Feb 2009, this is becoming a huge issue also, how can people survive in cities on days that hot?
The dams are at very low levels and will take years of average to above average rainfall to fill again thanks to the overall dryness that has built up over the years. The desal plant is going to help heaps but it is not necessarily a perfect solution to the problem.
The state government, here in Victoria anyway, is pretty much useless at building and maintaining infrastructure for a growing population. The public transport system in Melbourne is pretty much a joke, not because it is inadequate in itself but because of the incompetent way it is run thanks mostly to the state government's lack of action.
Melbourne is at a very real risk of dropping massively down the livability rankings in the near future if we just chuck in a huge number of people into massive ad hoc housing estates on the city fringe without any consideration given to infrastructure and essential services. Australians tend to value their space to the point that most won't stand to live in high density inner city apartment living like in Europe and so you get the housing estates sprawling ever further into the rural areas. The country is far too urbanised, a few major cities and a handful of small rural cities and the rest are just small towns (2000-10000 people) and hamlets.
I would imagine the damage to the environment here from a large increase in population is pretty massive compared to the similar impact in Europe where there is a more reliable supply of water and housing is much higher density as a whole with less urban footprint sprawling into the countryside.
The dams are at very low levels and will take years of average to above average rainfall to fill again thanks to the overall dryness that has built up over the years. The desal plant is going to help heaps but it is not necessarily a perfect solution to the problem.
The state government, here in Victoria anyway, is pretty much useless at building and maintaining infrastructure for a growing population. The public transport system in Melbourne is pretty much a joke, not because it is inadequate in itself but because of the incompetent way it is run thanks mostly to the state government's lack of action.
Melbourne is at a very real risk of dropping massively down the livability rankings in the near future if we just chuck in a huge number of people into massive ad hoc housing estates on the city fringe without any consideration given to infrastructure and essential services. Australians tend to value their space to the point that most won't stand to live in high density inner city apartment living like in Europe and so you get the housing estates sprawling ever further into the rural areas. The country is far too urbanised, a few major cities and a handful of small rural cities and the rest are just small towns (2000-10000 people) and hamlets.
I would imagine the damage to the environment here from a large increase in population is pretty massive compared to the similar impact in Europe where there is a more reliable supply of water and housing is much higher density as a whole with less urban footprint sprawling into the countryside.
Jul 18th 2010, 1:37 am
#7
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Posts: 14,188
Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Water still remains a big issue. There has been a lot of rainfall this year over a big part of the continent and Melbourne along with most of Victoria has done pretty well out of that too, the fact remains that over the last 13 years, in general, there has been a record deficiency of rainfall over southern Australia in particular and an increase in temps. Now that we are starting to see 48C temperatures in some Melbourne suburbs, like in Feb 2009, this is becoming a huge issue also, how can people survive in cities on days that hot?
The dams are at very low levels and will take years of average to above average rainfall to fill again thanks to the overall dryness that has built up over the years. The desal plant is going to help heaps but it is not necessarily a perfect solution to the problem.
The state government, here in Victoria anyway, is pretty much useless at building and maintaining infrastructure for a growing population. The public transport system in Melbourne is pretty much a joke, not because it is inadequate in itself but because of the incompetent way it is run thanks mostly to the state government's lack of action.
Melbourne is at a very real risk of dropping massively down the livability rankings in the near future if we just chuck in a huge number of people into massive ad hoc housing estates on the city fringe without any consideration given to infrastructure and essential services. Australians tend to value their space to the point that most won't stand to live in high density inner city apartment living like in Europe and so you get the housing estates sprawling ever further into the rural areas. The country is far too urbanised, a few major cities and a handful of small rural cities and the rest are just small towns (2000-10000 people) and hamlets.
I would imagine the damage to the environment here from a large increase in population is pretty massive compared to the similar impact in Europe where there is a more reliable supply of water and housing is much higher density as a whole with less urban footprint sprawling into the countryside.
The dams are at very low levels and will take years of average to above average rainfall to fill again thanks to the overall dryness that has built up over the years. The desal plant is going to help heaps but it is not necessarily a perfect solution to the problem.
The state government, here in Victoria anyway, is pretty much useless at building and maintaining infrastructure for a growing population. The public transport system in Melbourne is pretty much a joke, not because it is inadequate in itself but because of the incompetent way it is run thanks mostly to the state government's lack of action.
Melbourne is at a very real risk of dropping massively down the livability rankings in the near future if we just chuck in a huge number of people into massive ad hoc housing estates on the city fringe without any consideration given to infrastructure and essential services. Australians tend to value their space to the point that most won't stand to live in high density inner city apartment living like in Europe and so you get the housing estates sprawling ever further into the rural areas. The country is far too urbanised, a few major cities and a handful of small rural cities and the rest are just small towns (2000-10000 people) and hamlets.
I would imagine the damage to the environment here from a large increase in population is pretty massive compared to the similar impact in Europe where there is a more reliable supply of water and housing is much higher density as a whole with less urban footprint sprawling into the countryside.
Jul 18th 2010, 1:42 am
#8
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
There is no water shortage...only a shortage of infrastructure, as you pointed out. Build the infrastructure and the people can be supported.
I don't really understand your point about the Feb 2009 heatwave. It wasn't people in Melbourne suburbs who had a problem surviving it was people outside the city.
I don't really understand your point about the Feb 2009 heatwave. It wasn't people in Melbourne suburbs who had a problem surviving it was people outside the city.
Jul 18th 2010, 1:43 am
#9
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Ahh my favourite subject re Australia.
The water infrastructure issue is the only thing holding this Country back from being a massive world player. I feel very strongly that it's the State Govenment system that has caused the lack of very necessary investment in a Eastern Seaboard Water Grid. The water is here, the Dams and supply chain aren't. it's that simple.
I also feel we wont get the infrastructure needed until Aus is literally creaking at the seams with people, which will also provide the necessary funds to pay for the massive and overdue investment that is needed.
As for the lesser Yellow whatever habitat being destroyed because of their land being used for the infrastructure..... He/She/It can go jump along with the rest of the Swampies as far as I'm concerned
It has to happen one day, why not start now.
The water infrastructure issue is the only thing holding this Country back from being a massive world player. I feel very strongly that it's the State Govenment system that has caused the lack of very necessary investment in a Eastern Seaboard Water Grid. The water is here, the Dams and supply chain aren't. it's that simple.
I also feel we wont get the infrastructure needed until Aus is literally creaking at the seams with people, which will also provide the necessary funds to pay for the massive and overdue investment that is needed.
As for the lesser Yellow whatever habitat being destroyed because of their land being used for the infrastructure..... He/She/It can go jump along with the rest of the Swampies as far as I'm concerned
It has to happen one day, why not start now.
Jul 18th 2010, 1:51 am
#10
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Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 14,188
Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Ahh my favourite subject re Australia.
The water infrastructure issue is the only thing holding this Country back from being a massive world player. I feel very strongly that it's the State Govenment system that has caused the lack of very necessary investment in a Eastern Seaboard Water Grid. The water is here, the Dams and supply chain aren't. it's that simple.
I also feel we wont get the infrastructure needed until Aus is literally creaking at the seams with people, which will also provide the necessary funds to pay for the massive and overdue investment that is needed.
As for the lesser Yellow whatever habitat being destroyed because of their land being used for the infrastructure..... He/She/It can go jump along with the rest of the Swampies as far as I'm concerned
It has to happen one day, why not start now.
The water infrastructure issue is the only thing holding this Country back from being a massive world player. I feel very strongly that it's the State Govenment system that has caused the lack of very necessary investment in a Eastern Seaboard Water Grid. The water is here, the Dams and supply chain aren't. it's that simple.
I also feel we wont get the infrastructure needed until Aus is literally creaking at the seams with people, which will also provide the necessary funds to pay for the massive and overdue investment that is needed.
As for the lesser Yellow whatever habitat being destroyed because of their land being used for the infrastructure..... He/She/It can go jump along with the rest of the Swampies as far as I'm concerned
It has to happen one day, why not start now.
Parts of Queensland gets even more than that.
Jul 18th 2010, 2:03 am
#11
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Location: Melbourne
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Not just the tropics....Sydney & Brisbane get twice as much as London, Melbourne about the same (as London) on average...only Adelaide is (slightly) less I think. And a fraction of the number of people to support. It's pure & simple lack of infrastructure.
Jul 18th 2010, 2:37 am
#12
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Brisbane has full dams AND the infrastructure now...well some of it anyway....desal, recycle plant and new water grid so Brisbane can steal water from gold coast and other dams when levels low....now we are paying for it in water rates even though we don't need it yet...oh well both ways have there advantages...
Jul 18th 2010, 2:40 am
#13
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Some Australians have been saying for 30 years or more that we can support no more people but the people have continued to come....I would guess things will carry on just as they always have....infrastructure built when each crisis appears....
Last edited by fish.01; Jul 18th 2010 at 2:42 am.
Jul 18th 2010, 2:48 am
#14
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
Brisbane has full dams AND the infrastructure now...well some of it anyway....desal, recycle plant and new water grid so Brisbane can steal water from gold coast and other dams when levels low....now we are paying for it in water rates even though we don't need it yet...oh well both ways have there advantages...
Jul 18th 2010, 2:52 am
#15
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Re: Can Sydney and Melbourne really become huge cities?
The drought made the right environment for the money to be spent. The point is most was not even turned on before the dams were full so we are paying now and the cities that didn't build it aren't. So you could argue the cities that didn't build it have the best result at the moment, lower rates, or that we will be better prepared for growth. Both true, though if it was me deciding I would have had it built.
Last edited by fish.01; Jul 18th 2010 at 2:55 am.