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-   -   Beware the imminent housing bubble (https://britishexpats.com/forum/australia-54/beware-imminent-housing-bubble-705016/)

gere Feb 11th 2011 5:44 am

Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
Beware the imminent housing bubble
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/b...-1226004673183

The Next Bubble Coming From Down Under
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...own-under.aspx

One Last Giant Property Bubble
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...ty-bubble.aspx

Pomster Feb 11th 2011 6:32 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
Anyone got a bucket of popcorn?

iamthecreaturefromuranus Feb 11th 2011 6:52 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Pomster (Post 9170093)
Anyone got a bucket of popcorn?

I'm going to stick my fingers in my ears and go la-la-la-la-la-la

That way the thread will just vanish.

Margaret3 Feb 11th 2011 7:07 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by iamthecreaturefromuranus (Post 9170140)
I'm going to stick my fingers in my ears and go la-la-la-la-la-la

That way the thread will just vanish.

No way, your like me and sadly addicted to these threads:blink:

iamthecreaturefromuranus Feb 11th 2011 7:09 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Margaret3 (Post 9170185)
No way, your like me and sadly addicted to these threads:blink:

Still going la-la-la-la-la-la and not looking at the thread..... oh damn.

Margaret3 Feb 11th 2011 7:16 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
Trying to remember the posters name who always arrives at these threads and makes me feel better about renting, always sounds like he knows wot hes talking about.......think its Steve2009......c'mon steve

Hotton Feb 11th 2011 7:28 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by gere (Post 9170006)
Beware the imminent housing bubble
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/b...-1226004673183

The Next Bubble Coming From Down Under
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...own-under.aspx

One Last Giant Property Bubble
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...ty-bubble.aspx

Not another trying to deflate the Australian ever growing property prices , with facts , we are** DOOMED*** mr mannering ref to Dads Army anyone under 30 may be confused

Pomster Feb 11th 2011 8:32 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
quick...hide in the cupboard under the stairs and wait until it is all over.

....hang on, most houses in Oz, don't have stairs- we are all doomed!:rofl:

Vash the Stampede Feb 11th 2011 8:56 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
"Imminent housing bubble"? We already have a housing bubble. We've had a housing bubble for years.

The big question is "When will it pop?" Nobody knows.

JAK Feb 11th 2011 9:21 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
Music to my ears :thumbsup::thumbsup:

freebo Feb 11th 2011 4:55 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
Just signing in to watch the fun, I've got nothing new to say on the subject "it will pop one day, no idea when".

sonlymewalter Feb 11th 2011 6:32 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
The rumour is the RBA are keeping interest rates as they are for a while which means stability which means no housing bubble:thumbup:

paulry Feb 11th 2011 6:40 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
http://www.gifninja.com/Workspace/60...5d9/output.gif

Margaret3 Feb 13th 2011 9:44 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
awwwwweeeee no ones biting:(

Robbie37Michelle32 Feb 13th 2011 8:38 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
It seems everyone thinks the Bubble will never pop in Australia and will continue to grow and grow and be the biggest bestest bubble ever.

Soon people wont be able to afford a shed over there or Australia will be full of Millionaires :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Lets Hope Australia the Lucky country sorts its self out before it goes snap crackle and POP
Or until i get there get myself a cheap place then ill be happy i want a 10 bed house on the beach with 10acres please :thumbsup:

Margaret3 Feb 13th 2011 9:13 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Robbie37Michelle32 (Post 9174871)
It seems everyone thinks the Bubble will never pop in Australia and will continue to grow and grow and be the biggest bestest bubble ever.

Soon people wont be able to afford a shed over there or Australia will be full of Millionaires :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Lets Hope Australia the Lucky country sorts its self out before it goes snap crackle and POP
Or until i get there get myself a cheap place then ill be happy i want a 10 bed house on the beach with 10acres please :thumbsup:

we already cant afford a shed:( (well we could, but then couldnt afford to live)

Robbie37Michelle32 Feb 13th 2011 9:44 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Margaret3 (Post 9174955)
we already cant afford a shed:( (well we could, but then couldnt afford to live)

Oh noooooooooooo that means we will never move now lol What to do ahhhhhhhhhhhhh tent me thinks :thumbup:

Sherlock Holmes Feb 13th 2011 10:19 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
We live int shoe box int middle of road. :D Cost $78,000

Robbie37Michelle32 Feb 13th 2011 10:24 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by alistairboyle (Post 9175116)
We live int shoe box int middle of road. :D Cost $78,000

Do you think i would be ok with the shoe box and some beer each month could i live still ohhhhhhhhhhhh i am so scared of what to do :rofl:

Sherlock Holmes Feb 13th 2011 10:26 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Robbie37Michelle32 (Post 9175126)
Do you think i would be ok with the shoe box and some beer each month could i live still ohhhhhhhhhhhh i am so scared of what to do :rofl:

Go for it. I think most of us had next to nothing at some point in our lives. I would say that making a go of it here is easier than the UK. Other's will disagree.

Robbie37Michelle32 Feb 13th 2011 10:36 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
I so agree with what you are saying,i dont think you can live yourlife waiting for the right moment to move or buy or sell ect

We will be moving to the GC in April after waiting for such a longtime,we had sold our house well thought we had at such a good time the rate was 2.60 but it fell through then the market went tits and now we have sold and the rate is not so good but hey we are still coming over.

Will the bubble go who knows if i did i would be bloody rich thats for sure :)

Steve2009 Feb 14th 2011 12:39 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Robbie37Michelle32 (Post 9175162)
Will the bubble go who knows if i did i would be bloody rich thats for sure :)

Be careful what you wish for. If the bubble does burst Aus will be an unpleasant place to be for a while. It's hard to know the ramifications of that huge chunk of the economy disappearing but it's unlikely to be pleasant for too many.

wilf70 Feb 14th 2011 12:56 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 
If you wish to read a very interesting analysis on the housing bubble in Oz;google macrobusiness superblog and then read the article headed 'another troubling bargain'.This is a well worthwhile site for australian economic and financial matters:confused:

freebo Feb 14th 2011 8:13 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Robbie37Michelle32 (Post 9174871)
It seems everyone thinks the Bubble will never pop in Australia and will continue to grow and grow and be the biggest bestest bubble ever.

Soon people wont be able to afford a shed over there or Australia will be full of Millionaires :rofl::rofl::rofl:

Lets Hope Australia the Lucky country sorts its self out before it goes snap crackle and POP
Or until i get there get myself a cheap place then ill be happy i want a 10 bed house on the beach with 10acres please :thumbsup:

I think everyone's currently tired of talking about it, I am for the moment.

Plenty of people think there is no bubble and that prices will rise steadily or stabilise. Plenty of others think they're due a significant fall. No-one knows for sure and anyone who thinks they can accurately predict a timeline will either be wrong or be lucky-guessing. There are heaps of threads on it going back quite a while.

Once there's more news one way or the other I'm sure there'll be more discussion.

You pays your money (or not) and takes your chances.

Jon77 Feb 14th 2011 8:24 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by freebo (Post 9176330)
I think everyone's currently tired of talking about it, I am for the moment.

Plenty of people think there is no bubble and that prices will rise steadily or stabilise. Plenty of others think they're due a significant fall. No-one knows for sure and anyone who thinks they can accurately predict a timeline will either be wrong or be lucky-guessing. There are heaps of threads on it going back quite a while.

Once there's more news one way or the other I'm sure there'll be more discussion.

You pays your money (or not) and takes your chances.

True. I remember people in the UK who in 2007 said house prices would never fall.

House prices are as unsustainable in Australia as they were in the USA and the UK.

My friend bought a house in the North of England in 2006 for £145,000. The same houses as his on the same street are now on the market for £105,000 and not selling at that price. He is in negative equity but doesn't want to move / sell anyway so not so much of an issue I guess.

Steve2009 Feb 14th 2011 9:05 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Jon77 (Post 9176358)
My friend bought a house in the North of England in 2006 for £145,000. The same houses as his on the same street are now on the market for £105,000 and not selling at that price. He is in negative equity but doesn't want to move / sell anyway so not so much of an issue I guess.

Except that he now has less disposable income than his neighbours who buy at GBP 105,000.

gere Feb 14th 2011 9:20 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Jon77 (Post 9176358)
House prices are as unsustainable in Australia as they were in the USA and the UK.

Australia will not escape prices correction. It is a matter of time but it will happen. What goes up must come down.

BadgeIsBack Feb 14th 2011 10:42 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Steve2009 (Post 9176442)
Except that he now has less disposable income than his neighbours who buy at GBP 105,000.

His mate will have a Ben Sherman shirt - he will have to be content with M&S...

The anger will breed within...one day he will snap...:ohmy:

Steve2009 Feb 14th 2011 10:45 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack (Post 9176623)
His mate will have a Ben Sherman shirt - he will have to be content with M&S...

The anger will breed within...one day he will snap...:ohmy:

There are better outlets for disposable income, like...
private healthcare
private education
safeguarding parents retirement
safeguarding own retirement
own further education
etc etc.

Much better than keeping your bank manager in sharp suits and $40 lunches.

BadgeIsBack Feb 14th 2011 10:54 am

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Steve2009 (Post 9176631)
There are better outlets for disposable income, like...
private healthcare
private education
safeguarding parents retirement
safeguarding own retirement
own further education
etc etc.

Much better than keeping your bank manager in sharp suits and $40 lunches.

Indeed. I hope he is in agreement with you.

Mochinbach Feb 14th 2011 5:03 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by gere (Post 9170006)
Beware the imminent housing bubble
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/b...-1226004673183

The Next Bubble Coming From Down Under
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...own-under.aspx

One Last Giant Property Bubble
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...ty-bubble.aspx

questions /thoughts

1 - Courier Mail -- why MACBETH?..... Surely Hamlet would have been a much better choice for a "bloody" reference?
2. love the (now seemingly normal) assumption that all ecconomies are the same as the US and so should therefore be compared to it.
3.

bcworld Feb 14th 2011 5:06 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Mochinbach (Post 9177118)
3.

Number 3 lost all credibility at this point:

To put housing prices into some perspective, the average Sydney house sells for around A$600,000. The average Australian wage is around A$65,000. As far as affordability goes, it's about as bad as it gets

Why not compare Sydney prices to Sydney wages....or Australian prices to Australian wages? I stopped reading at that bit...and I'm a believer in the bubble.

fish.01 Feb 14th 2011 6:19 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by bcworld (Post 9177123)
Number 3 lost all credibility at this point:

To put housing prices into some perspective, the average Sydney house sells for around A$600,000. The average Australian wage is around A$65,000. As far as affordability goes, it's about as bad as it gets

Why not compare Sydney prices to Sydney wages....or Australian prices to Australian wages? I stopped reading at that bit...and I'm a believer in the bubble.

And why should the average salary be compared to average house price implying that if you earn the average salary and have no equity you still should be able to afford the average house?

bcworld Feb 14th 2011 6:22 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by fish.01 (Post 9177213)
And why should the average salary be compared to average house price implying that if you earn the average salary and have no equity you still should be able to afford the average house?

That's a bit different though, historically that's just provided a ratio that allows markets & periods in time to be compared...it definitely tells us something.

Steve2009 Feb 14th 2011 6:23 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by fish.01 (Post 9177213)
And why should the average salary be compared to average house price implying that if you earn the average salary and have no equity you still should be able to afford the average house?

I don't think that is the implication of that statistic, nor should it be. I think it's useful as a time series though.

Amazulu Feb 14th 2011 6:25 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Steve2009 (Post 9177218)
I don't think that is the implication of that statistic, nor should it be. I think it's useful as a time series though.

Sliders was a good time series, as was The Time Tunnel. Dr Who is another series that features time travel.

Rambi Feb 14th 2011 6:28 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Robbie37Michelle32 (Post 9174871)
It seems everyone thinks the Bubble will never pop in Australia and will continue to grow and grow and be the biggest bestest bubble ever. ....

I've never met anyone who thinks this. So I would guess there's a big disconnect between what seems and what is. :blink:

Rambi Feb 14th 2011 6:35 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Amazulu (Post 9177221)
Sliders was a good time series, as was The Time Tunnel. Dr Who also features time travel.

And I wonder how much it costs Dr Who to remodel the Tardis?

If you were the tradie you'd be wise to check the inside dimensions before giving a quote. :blink:

Amazulu Feb 14th 2011 6:38 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by Rambi (Post 9177233)
And I wonder how much it costs Dr Who to remodel the Tardis?

If you were the tradie you'd be wise to check the inside dimensions before giving a quote. :blink:

And the Doctor is lucky he does not live in Australia - just getting a tradie to give a quote is nearly impossible.

jimbo_d Feb 14th 2011 7:04 pm

Re: Beware the imminent housing bubble
 

Originally Posted by gere (Post 9170006)
Beware the imminent housing bubble
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/b...-1226004673183

The Next Bubble Coming From Down Under
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...own-under.aspx

One Last Giant Property Bubble
http://www.fool.com/investing/intern...ty-bubble.aspx

That fool article is quoting Steve Keen, the man who has been so wrong for so long, didn't he have to do a forfeight as his 40% drop prediction didn't come true?


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