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Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Just seen that the rates gone down to 2.11 dollars to the pound. Grrrr.... If it keeps going down things will start seeming a lot more expensive!
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
There is a few threads on this Luke so i dont think anyone will reply.
Not having a dig mate, just saying it how it is. ;) |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Hi Luke,
There has been quite a bit of discussion on this in the Australia forum over the last couple of days. Bottom line, if you're earning $ and spending $ it doesn't make any difference. If you're exchanging, well, you know what drives exchange rates so you know what its likely to do in the future....... Hope you've got the answers you were after before, Niki |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Ermm "If you're exchanging, well, you know what drives exchange rates so you know what its likely to do in the future......."
Its all a mystery to me....Go up or down??? don't say both, got 25k to exchange shortly |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by cartmeover
(Post 5961623)
Ermm "If you're exchanging, well, you know what drives exchange rates so you know what its likely to do in the future......."
Its all a mystery to me....Go up or down??? don't say both, got 25k to exchange shortly |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by bcworld
(Post 5961645)
There are no fundamental reasons for the rate to improve for you....there are for it to get worse though. However the markets are a law unto themselves so no-one can tell you what will actually happen.
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by cartmeover
(Post 5961623)
Ermm "If you're exchanging, well, you know what drives exchange rates so you know what its likely to do in the future......."
Its all a mystery to me....Go up or down??? don't say both, got 25k to exchange shortly Its driven a lot by interest rates, so IMHO pretty unlikely to improve any time soon unless the markets have a big upset unrelated to rates. |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by NikiL
(Post 5961731)
Luke's an accountant who sat the same exams as me, hence my reply!
Its driven a lot by interest rates, so IMHO pretty unlikely to improve any time soon unless the markets have a big upset unrelated to rates. Alan Greenspan famously said that he hadn't seen a forecast methodology for exchange rates that outperformed a coin toss," So when someone asked, 'Is the Australian dollar going up or down?' the answer is yes, and flip a coin to find out which way it's going." but I'll bow to your accountancy knowledge. |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by cartmeover
(Post 5961774)
I'm sorry Niki/Luke I was being flippant....
Alan Greenspan famously said that he hadn't seen a forecast methodology for exchange rates that outperformed a coin toss," So when someone asked, 'Is the Australian dollar going up or down?' the answer is yes, and flip a coin to find out which way it's going." but I'll bow to your accountancy knowledge. Theres a basic (and it is basic) economic theory that says a country with higher interest rates attracts overseas investors as they will get a higher return on their funds. Because more people want to buy the currency to invest and get the higher return the currency becomes more attractive, more people want to buy it, so the rate worsens. Because Australias interest rate is higher than the UK's that makes it more attractive, and the rate worsens. Its the unknown stuff that blows it out of the water, major economic disasters etc that move rates away from the theory. ps. My boss said to me a few years ago that once you've finished your exams its amazing how much you forget in a short space of time - he is sooo right :lol: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by NikiL
(Post 5961814)
Its the unknown stuff that blows it out of the water, major economic disasters etc that move rates away from the theory. This is very true.....traditionally the A$ gets sold off in times of turmoil, it's not seen as defensive.....or hasn't been...maybe it is now? People often talk about A$3 to the pound.....but I think this only ever happened on one day in the aftermath of Sept 11th. It didn't stay up in the $2.90s long either. |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by NikiL
(Post 5961814)
No bowing required, it'll only give you back ache :lol:
Theres a basic (and it is basic) economic theory that says a country with higher interest rates attracts overseas investors as they will get a higher return on their funds. Because more people want to buy the currency to invest and get the higher return the currency becomes more attractive, more people want to buy it, so the rate worsens. Because Australias interest rate is higher than the UK's that makes it more attractive, and the rate worsens. Its the unknown stuff that blows it out of the water, major economic disasters etc that move rates away from the theory. ps. My boss said to me a few years ago that once you've finished your exams its amazing how much you forget in a short space of time - he is sooo right :lol: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by bcworld
(Post 5961852)
This is very true.....traditionally the A$ gets sold off in times of turmoil, it's not seen as defensive.....or hasn't been...maybe it is now? People often talk about A$3 to the pound.....but I think this only ever happened on one day in the aftermath of Sept 11th. It didn't stay up in the $2.90s long either.
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
I just sent some cash over and guess what rate I got?
2.0967 :frown: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
The real exchange rate you should be watching is the
Aussie V The Greenback For Bristsh and Irish Expats to be, exchanging at a good rate nornmally depends on how well or badly the aussie is doing against the US dollar. If the Aussie is doing well against the Dollar (Which it is doing recently) then the Pound/Euro rate you get against the aussie will be depressed. If the US Dollar strengthens against the Aussie then by and large your Euro & Pound will get more against the Aussie. There are minor complications involved but more or less the above is a good rule of thumb. So, in short watch, the trend in the Aussie v The USD. From that you will see which way the AUssie v UK/Euro rate is going. My outlook? The Aussie will gain parity against the USD within 12 months sending the sterling rate against the Aussie well below the AUD$2.00 rate. Say 1.80-2.00 for your pound. This isnt my advice just my guess based on watching the markets for three years and working in finances for 10. Do your own research, as usual.:thumbup: PS Meant to add- Why is the US Dollar weak? It's the million dollar question. Quite clearly the US economy is in trouble and has been for a while. Having a weak dollar as part of US Policy obviously will encourage exports and go some way to tighten the trade deficit. That being the case the US have already allowed the dollar to weaken and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In short this will mean strong booming economies like the Australian economy will see their currency appreciate considerable against the USD. Unless the skills shortage in Australia gets completely unsustainable and the workforce cant service the economy, I dont see any let down in this currency swing for years to come. |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
1 Attachment(s)
1994 to present day, quite a ride? Where it will be four years from now is anyones guess?;)
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by Stephen
(Post 5962227)
My outlook? The Aussie will gain parity against the USD within 12 months sending the sterling rate against the Aussie well below the AUD$2.00 rate. Say 1.80-2.00 for your pound. This isnt my advice just my guess based on watching the markets for three years and working in finances for 10. Do your own research, as usual.:thumbup: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
$1.80 to $2.00
I hope i get the skilled indepedant visa as i can go over and get that stamped so it lasts 5 years. I know people will say 'you cant miss what you never had' |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Of course one very strong reason for the Oz Dollar increasing in value is that age old maxim of markets – demand. If fewer people want something it tends to have a lesser value. If more of a thing (currency) is wanted it will tend to have a greater value. It is not that anyone necessarily wants less Sterling, Britain’s foreign trade still commands a high level of need for Sterling to settle trading accounts. It is however, a fact that given the very high demand for Australia’s minerals there is a very high demand for the Australian Dollar with which to settle trading accounts. So, the value of the Oz Dollar has a bit more to do with the demand of rapidly growing economies (as well as the rest of the world developed economies) for raw materials than it has to do with individuals shifting their cash to higher interest rate economies such as Oz. But introducing a bit of politics, give the Labor Government a couple of years and who knows what may happen – watch this space!!!:curse:
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
oh well just thought i'd let you all know the exchange rate is now
2.11 Cannot believe it, lets hope it goes up again soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by renth
(Post 5962004)
I just sent some cash over and guess what rate I got?
2.0967 :frown: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
A very significant reason for Sterling losing value is of course the UK Labour Governments fight to keep British exports competitive - low exchenge rate means low export prices. The problem is it also means high import prices which of course cuts back on peoples spending and tends to hold down inflation.
Another very important reason to those politicains who would like to see Britain without its own currency is the little matter of convergence with the Euro. Whilst the Pound has lost something like 25% of its value against the US Dollar and Aussie Dollar the Euro has increased its value against Sterling by 30% over the past 18 months or so. The closer the Euro gets to the Pound the easier and cheaper for Europe will be the convergence of both currencies. Of course the losers as always are those who make the wealth - Joe Soap - poor sods! The Doctor:curse::curse: |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
OK all maybe some good news for those going to Aus.
I have heard a rumour that the Aussie is ready to fall. My information was correct when I was told the Aussie was going to get very strong so change a few pounds, after hearing this today I have changed my dollars back. I changed £10,000 and got $25,000, changed $25,000 and got £12,000, easiest £2000 I have earned this year. Just thought I would give a few a heads up so they don’t lose loads. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6413829)
OK all maybe some good news for those going to Aus.
I have heard a rumour that the Aussie is ready to fall. My information was correct when I was told the Aussie was going to get very strong so change a few pounds, after hearing this today I have changed my dollars back. I changed £10,000 and got $25,000, changed $25,000 and got £12,000, easiest £2000 I have earned this year. Just thought I would give a few a heads up so they don’t lose loads. Gav Sharon :) |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6413829)
OK all maybe some good news for those going to Aus.
I have heard a rumour that the Aussie is ready to fall. My information was correct when I was told the Aussie was going to get very strong so change a few pounds, after hearing this today I have changed my dollars back. I changed £10,000 and got $25,000, changed $25,000 and got £12,000, easiest £2000 I have earned this year. Just thought I would give a few a heads up so they don’t lose loads. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
When will this happen?
If you watch the rate you will have noticed it doing up already, although only a little. My information is that it will slowly creep up and then with a big jump. Best to do it now and let others know as well. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
It'll be 2.4 in September.
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Just exchange the lot stick it in an Aussie bond (high interest
account) get bags of interest then exchange it back when you feel its rising Aint it what are japan freinds are doing carrie trade? |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by MartinLuther
(Post 6421706)
It'll be 2.4 in September.
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by cj321
(Post 6421993)
And you also know the lotto numbers for next week :eek:
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Hello everyone
Being looking at what eveyone is saying about there exchange rates and i have being getting the best advice I have heard for along time from my broker at Excel Currencies.. Firstly the main thing he mentioned was that there is 2 ways of buying currency one is at the right time and the other is the last minute. I have done a few trades through Excel and I have found there way of doing things much better then anyone else. I now always have my money sitting in there account ready to trade instead of doing it at the last minute. This has allowed me on a couple of occassions to achieve the high of the day and in one case I achieved the high of the week, The main thing they offer is called a group booking, they simply put my money together with loads of other peoples money and buy a bulk amount from the market, it has worked out pretty well over the last few trades I have done with them. To be honest I think the key is to find the right Broker and not so much the right company. My guy at excel just keeps things simple for me and that the way I like it or as he put it "Let me do the worrying for you" |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
I just googled Excel Currencies and google warns that malicious content may be downloaded from the site. Obviously I didn't open it.
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Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Here are the Lotto and Lottery numbers
12, 9, 45, 7, 6, 32 Supplementaries: 5, 30 15, 20, 22, 34, 37, 39 Bonus 17 PMSL The company I use for exchange is World first, they give the best rates and no charges if you change £10,000 or more. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6413829)
<edit>
I changed £10,000 and got $25,000, changed $25,000 and got £12,000, easiest £2000 I have earned this year. Just thought I would give a few a heads up so they don’t lose loads. Gav How did you achieve an exchange rate of GBP1 = Au$ 2.50 in the first place??? |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by Nice Guy
(Post 6424571)
Huh??
How did you achieve an exchange rate of GBP1 = Au$ 2.50 in the first place??? |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Well Nice guy I will tell you, and no Mr mover it was not in my dreams.
As I have already said I have a friend that knows a little and on the 16th August 2007 he advised me to buy Aussie dollars, the actual rate was $2.52 and World first gave me $2.50 with no other charges. Please feel free to check the amounts and dates as clearly some are a little sceptical. It doesn’t matter to me if people take the advise or not, I am just trying to help. For people like Mr Mover, if you don’t believe don’t do anything, but please don’t try to make others out to be liars when you have obviously not done your homework. The rate has been higher than $2.50 in the past and suggestions are that this could happen again over the next 3 years, we should all know that things than happen in Britain happen 2 to 3 years later in Australia. So as the pound gets stronger over the next couple of years and the dollar get weaker we could end up like in 2001 at $2.80 - $2.90. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
I don't mean to brag, but I got 2.5 last August too. The trouble is, I had just opened the account so only sent a trial amount. It started dropping the next day, and I made the mistake of waiting and not grabbing the best rate I could at the time. Beating myself up about it now of course.
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Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6413829)
<edit> date May 30th 2008 11:58 pm
I changed £10,000 and got $25,000, changed $25,000 and got £12,000, easiest £2000 I have earned this year. Just thought I would give a few a heads up so they don’t lose loads. Gav
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6425018)
<edit>...........on the 16th August 2007 he advised me to buy Aussie dollars, the actual rate was $2.52 and World first gave me $2.50 with no other charges.
Please feel free to check the amounts and dates as clearly some are a little sceptical. It doesn’t matter to me if people take the advise or not, I am just trying to help. For people like Mr Mover, if you don’t believe don’t do anything, but please don’t try to make others out to be liars when you have obviously not done your homework. The rate has been higher than $2.50 in the past and suggestions are that this could happen again over the next 3 years, we should all know that things than happen in Britain happen 2 to 3 years later in Australia. So as the pound gets stronger over the next couple of years and the dollar get weaker we could end up like in 2001 at $2.80 - $2.90. Gav I also think mr mover thought that as well. As far as the rest of your post is concerned not everything, least of all currency appreciation and depreciation is cyclical. |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6425018)
Well Nice guy I will tell you, and no Mr mover it was not in my dreams.
As I have already said I have a friend that knows a little and on the 16th August 2007 he advised me to buy Aussie dollars, the actual rate was $2.52 and World first gave me $2.50 with no other charges. Please feel free to check the amounts and dates as clearly some are a little sceptical. It doesn’t matter to me if people take the advise or not, I am just trying to help. For people like Mr Mover, if you don’t believe don’t do anything, but please don’t try to make others out to be liars when you have obviously not done your homework. The rate has been higher than $2.50 in the past and suggestions are that this could happen again over the next 3 years, we should all know that things than happen in Britain happen 2 to 3 years later in Australia. So as the pound gets stronger over the next couple of years and the dollar get weaker we could end up like in 2001 at $2.80 - $2.90. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
It may seem a little high but I use them as I can speak to them on the telephone and agree a price there and then.
I am currently in the UK so it is better for me to use a UK company. Gav |
Re: Australian Dollar - exchange rate?!
Originally Posted by gavbro
(Post 6425804)
It may seem a little high but I use them as I can speak to them on the telephone and agree a price there and then.
I am currently in the UK so it is better for me to use a UK company. Gav |
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