Australian Dollar
Nov 16th 2011 | 9:10 pm
#31
Forum Regular
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 168
Re: Australian Dollar
I reckon you guys are being fairly optimistic...
A couple of years ago I gazed into my crystal ball and made a prediction that the exchange rate wouldn't climb back to 1.90 for at least five years.
This morning I took another quick peek, and I'm revising the numbers a little.... I'm predicting that over the next 5 years we will see GBP:AUD fluctuate between $1.25 and $1.70.
Prediction is based on:
- continued strength in Aus economy.
- good fiscal management in Aus.
- very low, if any, growth in UK economy.
- exposure to european debt > UK will increase money supply > GBP will get weaker.
A couple of years ago I gazed into my crystal ball and made a prediction that the exchange rate wouldn't climb back to 1.90 for at least five years.
This morning I took another quick peek, and I'm revising the numbers a little.... I'm predicting that over the next 5 years we will see GBP:AUD fluctuate between $1.25 and $1.70.
Prediction is based on:
- continued strength in Aus economy.
- good fiscal management in Aus.
- very low, if any, growth in UK economy.
- exposure to european debt > UK will increase money supply > GBP will get weaker.
Nov 16th 2011 | 9:34 pm
#32
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 2,201
From: Gloucestershire
Re: Australian Dollar
Mervyn King is also talking talking about QE next year which will see the £ plummeting ... again! Will someone gag that bloke, please.
Nov 16th 2011 | 10:58 pm
#34
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 992
Re: Australian Dollar
Anyone used XE or Citibank UK for transfers?
Nov 17th 2011 | 9:28 am
#38
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 759
From: Limbo
Re: Australian Dollar
if that were the case, I'd buy up one quarter of detroit for about 1000 Indonesian Rupai, as long as I didnt have to live there.
I could become that guy from robocop who controls old detroit. Or at least charge him rent while he does his thing.
But in seriousness, if this were the case I'd be there in a flash. Colonial manion in New England/Boston, weekend home in Pacific Palisades, 2012 Shelby Mustang on standby, and two chicks at the same time. lol.
(office space reference for anyone who thinks that last bit is serious. but it kind of is.)
Nov 17th 2011 | 1:24 pm
#39
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 24,249
From: Alloha snack bar
Re: Australian Dollar
what??
if that were the case, I'd buy up one quarter of detroit for about 1000 Indonesian Rupai, as long as I didnt have to live there.
I could become that guy from robocop who controls old detroit. Or at least charge him rent while he does his thing.
But in seriousness, if this were the case I'd be there in a flash. Colonial manion in New England/Boston, weekend home in Pacific Palisades, 2012 Shelby Mustang on standby, and two chicks at the same time. lol.
(office space reference for anyone who thinks that last bit is serious. but it kind of is.)
if that were the case, I'd buy up one quarter of detroit for about 1000 Indonesian Rupai, as long as I didnt have to live there.
I could become that guy from robocop who controls old detroit. Or at least charge him rent while he does his thing.
But in seriousness, if this were the case I'd be there in a flash. Colonial manion in New England/Boston, weekend home in Pacific Palisades, 2012 Shelby Mustang on standby, and two chicks at the same time. lol.
(office space reference for anyone who thinks that last bit is serious. but it kind of is.)
I'm with you on the Shelby, but I'd have a Glock 19 for crime control.
Nov 19th 2011 | 1:02 am
#41
Not allowed opinions.
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 4,565
From: Sydney
Re: Australian Dollar
The good news for anyone moving to Australia is that we have seen an improvement in the GBPAUD rate, albeit a slight one!
This morning’s price is 1.5572. That’s a healthy increase on the 1.50 price toward the end of October. Australia's central bank decision to cut interest rates this month is a move toward a more neutral monetary policy. The Australian mining boom is still posing the risk of needing to have interest rates back at a more restrictive level. From an investors perspective it closes the gap between the UK’s interest rate(0.5%) and the Australian interest rate(4.50%). It’s still more attractive to hold Aussie Dollars because of the huge difference in yields.
Back over in Europe the German Chancellors comments that the Eurozone is in its worst state since World War 2 created more uncertainty yesterday. Funds are flowing back to the safe haven currencies of choice, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Although two new technocrat governments have been formed in the Eurozone, with both Greece and Italy appointing new prime ministers, it seems that investors are ever more concerned about contagion. This could drag on Australia as its economic performance is so connected to global growth.
Any questions or thoughts on the Aussie Dollar?
This morning’s price is 1.5572. That’s a healthy increase on the 1.50 price toward the end of October. Australia's central bank decision to cut interest rates this month is a move toward a more neutral monetary policy. The Australian mining boom is still posing the risk of needing to have interest rates back at a more restrictive level. From an investors perspective it closes the gap between the UK’s interest rate(0.5%) and the Australian interest rate(4.50%). It’s still more attractive to hold Aussie Dollars because of the huge difference in yields.
Back over in Europe the German Chancellors comments that the Eurozone is in its worst state since World War 2 created more uncertainty yesterday. Funds are flowing back to the safe haven currencies of choice, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Although two new technocrat governments have been formed in the Eurozone, with both Greece and Italy appointing new prime ministers, it seems that investors are ever more concerned about contagion. This could drag on Australia as its economic performance is so connected to global growth.
Any questions or thoughts on the Aussie Dollar?
Sadly the world isnt turning, its in the process of stopping. I hope someone is reflecting on their post.
Nov 19th 2011 | 1:04 am
#42
Account Open
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,298
From: Brisbane
Re: Australian Dollar
Nov 20th 2011 | 10:51 pm
#43
Melbourne - NE suburbs
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,032
Re: Australian Dollar
I find this appears to give a balanced view of how it could swing either way.
http://www.currencynews.co.uk/foreca...forecast-.html
"As the recent economic crisis unfolded in the Autumn of 2008, causing the demise of investment banks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, the GBP AUD exchange rate spiralled to briefly touch 2.7000.
As panic in the markets subsided, investors regained their appetite for risk, global stock markets rose and the Australian Dollar was well-supported.
This saw the GBP AUD rate gradually drift downwards through the 2.00 level, eventually breaking to a multi-decade low of 1.4760 in July, 2011. 1.4760 remains a strong level of ‘support’ for GBP AUD.
This low was strongly rejected, signalling a key reversal, as investors began to scale back on riskier assets, fearing that the Eurozone’s debt crisis was set to escalate. This saw the GBP AUD rate improve to 1.6390 by the second week of August, 2011.
1.6390 remains as an 8-month high on GBP AUD, making it a strong ‘resistance level’ in the market and a near-term target for the pair, if there is further uncertainty emanating from the Eurozone.
Looking further ahead, if Europe’s debt crisis does escalate and begins to spread to other peripheral nations, then a return to the 1.70-1.82 range which GBP AUD occupied between October 2009 and September 2010, is likely.
An alternative scenario which could trigger a return to the 1.70-1.82 range is further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA cut their interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50% earlier this month. This was the first time Australia’s Central bank had cut rates since the Spring of 2009.
The surprise cut in Australian interest rates made the Australian Dollar a less attractive prospect for institutional investors to hold. However, the minutes of November’s RBA meeting, released earlier today, suggest that further cuts in domestic interest rates are unlikely in the near-term.
The alternative scenario would see Eurozone leaders show strong leadership and global economic indicators improve, making a revisiting of the 1.4760 support level likely.
A break below 1.4760 would send out a highly negative signal for GBP AUD, effectively pushing the pair into free-fall as it sinks to levels that it has not traded at for over two decades."
http://www.currencynews.co.uk/foreca...forecast-.html
"As the recent economic crisis unfolded in the Autumn of 2008, causing the demise of investment banks Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, the GBP AUD exchange rate spiralled to briefly touch 2.7000.
As panic in the markets subsided, investors regained their appetite for risk, global stock markets rose and the Australian Dollar was well-supported.
This saw the GBP AUD rate gradually drift downwards through the 2.00 level, eventually breaking to a multi-decade low of 1.4760 in July, 2011. 1.4760 remains a strong level of ‘support’ for GBP AUD.
This low was strongly rejected, signalling a key reversal, as investors began to scale back on riskier assets, fearing that the Eurozone’s debt crisis was set to escalate. This saw the GBP AUD rate improve to 1.6390 by the second week of August, 2011.
1.6390 remains as an 8-month high on GBP AUD, making it a strong ‘resistance level’ in the market and a near-term target for the pair, if there is further uncertainty emanating from the Eurozone.
Looking further ahead, if Europe’s debt crisis does escalate and begins to spread to other peripheral nations, then a return to the 1.70-1.82 range which GBP AUD occupied between October 2009 and September 2010, is likely.
An alternative scenario which could trigger a return to the 1.70-1.82 range is further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA cut their interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50% earlier this month. This was the first time Australia’s Central bank had cut rates since the Spring of 2009.
The surprise cut in Australian interest rates made the Australian Dollar a less attractive prospect for institutional investors to hold. However, the minutes of November’s RBA meeting, released earlier today, suggest that further cuts in domestic interest rates are unlikely in the near-term.
The alternative scenario would see Eurozone leaders show strong leadership and global economic indicators improve, making a revisiting of the 1.4760 support level likely.
A break below 1.4760 would send out a highly negative signal for GBP AUD, effectively pushing the pair into free-fall as it sinks to levels that it has not traded at for over two decades."
Nov 21st 2011 | 9:56 pm
#44
Account Open
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 4,298
From: Brisbane
Re: Australian Dollar
edit - just noticed the title of the article "technical outlook forecast". That explains it.
Last edited by asprilla; Nov 21st 2011 at 9:59 pm.
