Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
#17
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
Well looks like I'll be renting my house out here in the UK and rent in Oz and when the market does collapse there, I'll be in a strong position to buy.
I could be buying YOUR house for 50% current value.
I could be buying YOUR house for 50% current value.
#18
Banned
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 421
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
http://www.businessinsider.com/vanco...ollapse-2010-7
For those inclined to take such reports seriously (maybe those who're a bit over-extended on their mortgage or who fear their job might disappear within the next 6 to 12 months) the thing to watch is sales in your immediate vicinity
because what happens is, desperate neighbours and others in your region might decide to dramatically drop their asking price
when this happens, their sale-price will become the new bench-mark for your property, like it or not. Estate agents will start your asking-price at your neighbour's sell-price
You may well protest and point out how much you paid for your property. Estate agents will shrug and tell you 'too bad, so sad', and inform you that the market (and not the price you paid) determines the value of your property
If you become stubborn (as well you might) you will sit there watching properties around you selling for a dramatically reduced price. It will seem surreal (especially for those who've been persuaded that 'property always goes up, never down' )
If you remain stubborn and leave it too late, you may well look back at what at the time were the 'insulting' offers you knocked back -- and wish you'd taken the money. Because twelve months on, the offers you receive may be tens of thousands lower again
So keep your eyes on property-sales in your region and surrounding suburbs and if you know you're going to have to get out of your mortgage for whatever reason in the next 12 months -- do it sooner rather than later. Because when property dives in Australia (and most particularly on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts) it has a history of going down to the wire -- and staying there for a long time
Mass migration saved the Gold Coast, which at the time had been in a deep trough for close to 12 years. Migrants pushed up the property prices in the southern cities. People in the cities sold for ridiculously high prices (600,000, 700,000 for jerry-built 2-bedroom slums in many cases, built in the 1920s). The southerners grabbed the money and retired to the Gold and Sunshine coasts and snapped up cheap properties there which had been languishing for close to a decade. Then more migrants bought into the Gold and Sunshine coasts, pushing prices up even higher. Many real estate agents who couldn't afford coffee in the late 90s were able to retire on the easy money brought about by the most recent Qld property booms. Migrants were suckered, in many instances. But with their strong UK Pound, were persuaded they'd won a bargain
It's to be suspected that bubble is deflating fast, despite estate agents and media, etc. claiming there's a 'housing shortage'
Brisbane people are reporting online that 13 or more houses in their streets are still unsold, despite being on the market for close to a year
So keep your eyes open and remember that estate-agents earn their car and mortgage payments from selling properties, as do newspapers (all those real-estate ads .. thousands of them, every day)
It's your life, your future, your money. No-one is going to care about you and your family as much as you do. So don't buy the BS. Do your homework. Watch the actual employment situation. Can you survive and for how long if your job disappears ? Should you sell, downsize or rent until things stabilise, etc. ? Only you know.
And remember, despite the advice about rent being dead money, there is genuine research which claims that unless you're going to live in a place for a minimum of 7 years, then it's cheaper or at least no more expensive -- all factors taken into account -- to rent
For those inclined to take such reports seriously (maybe those who're a bit over-extended on their mortgage or who fear their job might disappear within the next 6 to 12 months) the thing to watch is sales in your immediate vicinity
because what happens is, desperate neighbours and others in your region might decide to dramatically drop their asking price
when this happens, their sale-price will become the new bench-mark for your property, like it or not. Estate agents will start your asking-price at your neighbour's sell-price
You may well protest and point out how much you paid for your property. Estate agents will shrug and tell you 'too bad, so sad', and inform you that the market (and not the price you paid) determines the value of your property
If you become stubborn (as well you might) you will sit there watching properties around you selling for a dramatically reduced price. It will seem surreal (especially for those who've been persuaded that 'property always goes up, never down' )
If you remain stubborn and leave it too late, you may well look back at what at the time were the 'insulting' offers you knocked back -- and wish you'd taken the money. Because twelve months on, the offers you receive may be tens of thousands lower again
So keep your eyes on property-sales in your region and surrounding suburbs and if you know you're going to have to get out of your mortgage for whatever reason in the next 12 months -- do it sooner rather than later. Because when property dives in Australia (and most particularly on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts) it has a history of going down to the wire -- and staying there for a long time
Mass migration saved the Gold Coast, which at the time had been in a deep trough for close to 12 years. Migrants pushed up the property prices in the southern cities. People in the cities sold for ridiculously high prices (600,000, 700,000 for jerry-built 2-bedroom slums in many cases, built in the 1920s). The southerners grabbed the money and retired to the Gold and Sunshine coasts and snapped up cheap properties there which had been languishing for close to a decade. Then more migrants bought into the Gold and Sunshine coasts, pushing prices up even higher. Many real estate agents who couldn't afford coffee in the late 90s were able to retire on the easy money brought about by the most recent Qld property booms. Migrants were suckered, in many instances. But with their strong UK Pound, were persuaded they'd won a bargain
It's to be suspected that bubble is deflating fast, despite estate agents and media, etc. claiming there's a 'housing shortage'
Brisbane people are reporting online that 13 or more houses in their streets are still unsold, despite being on the market for close to a year
So keep your eyes open and remember that estate-agents earn their car and mortgage payments from selling properties, as do newspapers (all those real-estate ads .. thousands of them, every day)
It's your life, your future, your money. No-one is going to care about you and your family as much as you do. So don't buy the BS. Do your homework. Watch the actual employment situation. Can you survive and for how long if your job disappears ? Should you sell, downsize or rent until things stabilise, etc. ? Only you know.
And remember, despite the advice about rent being dead money, there is genuine research which claims that unless you're going to live in a place for a minimum of 7 years, then it's cheaper or at least no more expensive -- all factors taken into account -- to rent
ABC Diamond, you post some valuable data on here, and appreciated by me and most, but you are the housing market resident bull. Well in Australia, notibly the Bayside area. I would like to see your response, not a copy and paste, but something hand made by you, outlining why house prices are not falling and why they will not fall in Australia. Its just you seem to argue with all intense and purposes using public data?
Again a great reponse, i do feel you have gotten a point there folic. The higher they go, the more they will drop, and the lower they will go.
Get ready folks, it will be a long way down.
#19
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
I do think house prices in Aus are way too high for the average earnings but isn't the issue supply & demand? There are acute housing shortages in some areas so will this not protect the market to some extent?
#20
Account Closed
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 14,188
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
For the life of me I cannot see why so many people seem to be wishing that the market collapse's. Yes it will make a house cheaper to buy... but it doesn't matter how cheap it is if you have no job.
I guess those hoping for a collapse are thinking that their job is safe because, as we see so quoted so many times in this thread "it's different here" and they of course wouldn't be effected.
#21
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2008
Location: newbury
Posts: 943
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
#22
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
ABC Diamond, you post some valuable data on here, and appreciated by me and most, but you are the housing market resident bull. Well in Australia, notibly the Bayside area. I would like to see your response, not a copy and paste, but something hand made by you, outlining why house prices are not falling and why they will not fall in Australia. Its just you seem to argue with all intense and purposes using public data?
The highly residential areas of Western Sydney for example, where I have shown that prices have dropped. But the people that argue say that isn't possible, because prices have risen, and have yet to drop. In 2003 a property in 2759 was valued at $430,000, it is now valued at about $370,000. I personally do not see it dropping further, yet others say it it will drop and is 61% overvalued ? That would make it $228,000 or about 2 x the annual average income of a two full-time income family.
You say I am a housing market resident bull ? What does that mean ?
A bull indicates a person who says that prices will keep rising. How often do I say that ? When asked about WA, my answer was that prices had to drop.
I don't see how prices can keep rising forever, and cant recall saying they will, yet it is said that I say they will.
I do use public data a lot, as it seems more relevant than pure opinion that could be wildly inaccurate.
What this data often shows is that some figures that some people produce are from fantasy land.
Too many people are a one size fits all.
I have got figures for the Bayside area that show some houses here have dropped in price since their last sale, and others that have risen. I could use either examples to prove either argument, just as some others on here do.
Peoples opinions are just opinions. Facts are facts. Some people don't like facts, they prefer opinions. Opinions are easier to argue with, as they can't be proved, otherwise they would be facts
Remember though that median prices mean nothing....
My personal opinion on Median prices: The Truth about Median Property Prices
#23
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
(That is 8 times the average male full time wage)
#24
Account Closed
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 14,188
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
The highly residential areas of Western Sydney for example, where I have shown that prices have dropped. But the people that argue say that isn't possible, because prices have risen, and have yet to drop. In 2003 a property in 2759 was valued at $430,000, it is now valued at about $370,000.
#25
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
...or, you could sat in a dole queue somewhere because the property market has collapsed and taken the entire economy with it. Of course the doom mongers in this thread will be able to say "I told you so"... from their position in the same dole queue.
For the life of me I cannot see why so many people seem to be wishing that the market collapse's. Yes it will make a house cheaper to buy... but it doesn't matter how cheap it is if you have no job.
I guess those hoping for a collapse are thinking that their job is safe because, as we see so quoted so many times in this thread "it's different here" and they of course wouldn't be effected.
For the life of me I cannot see why so many people seem to be wishing that the market collapse's. Yes it will make a house cheaper to buy... but it doesn't matter how cheap it is if you have no job.
I guess those hoping for a collapse are thinking that their job is safe because, as we see so quoted so many times in this thread "it's different here" and they of course wouldn't be effected.
#26
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
$435,000 2/8a Market Pl 3 bed Unit
$548,500 17 Evans St 3 bed House
$650,000 18/60 Harbour St 3 bed Unit
$760,000 23/12 Bank St 3 bed Unit
$835,000 1 Wiseman Av 4 bed House
Median price so far ... $650,000
April Median price $420,000. They need more lower end sales to get that median down
#27
Account Closed
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 14,188
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
How do these recent Wollongong sales compare to your knowledge of Wollongong.
$435,000 2/8a Market Pl 3 bed Unit
$548,500 17 Evans St 3 bed House
$650,000 18/60 Harbour St 3 bed Unit
$760,000 23/12 Bank St 3 bed Unit
$835,000 1 Wiseman Av 4 bed House
Median price so far ... $650,000
April Median price $420,000. They need more lower end sales to get that median down
$435,000 2/8a Market Pl 3 bed Unit
$548,500 17 Evans St 3 bed House
$650,000 18/60 Harbour St 3 bed Unit
$760,000 23/12 Bank St 3 bed Unit
$835,000 1 Wiseman Av 4 bed House
Median price so far ... $650,000
April Median price $420,000. They need more lower end sales to get that median down
#28
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
$277,000 8/88 Daintree Dr 3 bed Townhouse
$313,000 252 Tongarra Rd 3 bed House
$349,000 9 Mayfield Clt 3 bed House
$369,000 13 Campaspe Cct 3 bed House
$375,000 2/5 Munduran Cl 3 bed Duplex
$410,000 16 Golden Gr 4 bed House
$420,000 10 Barwon Pl 4 bed House
$429,000 26 Cascade Ct 4 bed House
$515,000 14 Manning Pl 4 bed House
$630,000 5 Abercrombie Cr 5 bed House
#29
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
What a great post, not a copy and paste but a post from experience.
ABC Diamond, you post some valuable data on here, and appreciated by me and most, but you are the housing market resident bull. Well in Australia, notibly the Bayside area. I would like to see your response, not a copy and paste, but something hand made by you, outlining why house prices are not falling and why they will not fall in Australia. Its just you seem to argue with all intense and purposes using public data?
Again a great reponse, i do feel you have gotten a point there folic. The higher they go, the more they will drop, and the lower they will go.
Get ready folks, it will be a long way down.
ABC Diamond, you post some valuable data on here, and appreciated by me and most, but you are the housing market resident bull. Well in Australia, notibly the Bayside area. I would like to see your response, not a copy and paste, but something hand made by you, outlining why house prices are not falling and why they will not fall in Australia. Its just you seem to argue with all intense and purposes using public data?
Again a great reponse, i do feel you have gotten a point there folic. The higher they go, the more they will drop, and the lower they will go.
Get ready folks, it will be a long way down.
I have noticed him say many times that prices could go down. I don't think he denies this.....I just think he likes to refute the many inaccurate statements claiming things have already happened or have to happen because of this or that number without always being accurate.
#30
Re: Australia Next ? - Vancouver Property Drops 30%
.....
Interestingly, those who warned of up to a 40% price-drop were experienced old-timers who'd seen it all happen before --- even as real-estate agents and the media continued to talk-up prices
and those who insisted it could 'never happen' were migrants and/or under-30s (in other words, those who had not experienced loss of 30 and 40 percent off their property's supposed 'value')
For those interested, here's a link to current reports re: Vancouver property's day of reckoning:
http://www.businessinsider.com/vanco...ollapse-2010-7
Interestingly, those who warned of up to a 40% price-drop were experienced old-timers who'd seen it all happen before --- even as real-estate agents and the media continued to talk-up prices
and those who insisted it could 'never happen' were migrants and/or under-30s (in other words, those who had not experienced loss of 30 and 40 percent off their property's supposed 'value')
For those interested, here's a link to current reports re: Vancouver property's day of reckoning:
http://www.businessinsider.com/vanco...ollapse-2010-7