Mallory

In your dreams!

Budawang

I absolutely agree that Australia is not insulated from what's going on elsewhere. However, some of the big factors at play in the world are working to Australia's advantage, namely:
1. Increased demand for food
2. Increased demand for minerals
3. Increased demand for energy
4. Reduced appetite for risk
Point number 4 is underestimated. Australia is considered to have one of the best regulated, and least risky, economies in the world. The US used to be the ultimate safe-haven, but how things have changed. As it becomes more and more apparent just how badly regulated (and corrupt) its financial markets are, countries like Australia are looking very appealing.

I predict China will face a serious political/economic crisis at some stage, but it will probably be a few years off. This will be a huge challenge for Australia and will jeopardize our impressive run of economic growth.

BATS666

like I said "an economy base solely on one industry....."

NKSK version 2

I still cannot get over the fact that, depending on which you take as your reference, Perth house prices are on average between $450K and $497K.

Even to take the lower end of the spectrum - $450K - that's GBP220000.

Whatever is happening to the mining boom (and I heard the term 'maturing' the other day), this is an amazingly high average price to pay for a house.

Talkback radio today was full of denials - led by REIWA trying to oppose the APM report (suggesting a 15% drop in Perth prices). Probably the same group of people who 18 months ago were saying that the mining boom and continued immigration to WA would ensure that Perth prices wouldn't fall - flatline possibly but not fall.

Since then they've fallen 6% in 6 months and, according to the real estate institute today, (said trying to justify that prices wouldn't fall in the future) they've fallen between 15 and 20% in 18 months in suburbs beyond 15kms from the CBD.

Seeing house prices collapse in Perth brings me great joy! Trouble is, they're collapsing in the UK also which isn't so joyful!! Which brings me to another point - all of those people arriving in WA each day - where are they going to find the money to put on to a house in Perth? Collapsing markets in the developed world means that the equity they bring will be reduced. I can't see many people who want to be truck drivers in the mines bringing vast amounts in.

And if interest rates do start to drop later this year, they won't shave much off the monthly payments on a $400K mortgage.

BATS666

like I said....I'll make less money on the UK house sale than a year ago but certainly won't be paying Perth prices from a year ago either ! Swings and whatsits..... I mean, half a million quid for a wooden shack in Fremantle??? Perrrlease !!!
Some land prices already down in Mandurah by 33% since last year and nothing much else is selling.
Renting, wherever you are, is the short term answer. Wait til prices stablilise then buy back in. Could be a few years yet ! Money's better off in the bank, which, thankfully is where most of ours is !

NKSK version 2

Strangely I was trying to work out the maths today. If my house in the UK is currently worth 65% of what the equivalent house in Perth costs and both go down by 20% over the next year am I better off selling now (impossible I think) or waiting until after the bloodshed...? (Even though we'll probably leave Perth I wouldn't mind keeping a small house here......)

Done it - better off waiting - esp given the poor exchange rate and the UK market.

Tableland

By Christmas 2009 people will look back on 15% correction as the good old days.