itsasecret

SORRY ITS A CUT AND PASTE.




Yahoo! Australia & NZ Finance



Thursday 11 March 5:15 PM


Aussie slipping towards 74c as rate doubts grow
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By Colin Brinsden

SYDNEY, March 11 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar came within a few ticks of this year's low on Thursday after weak labour force data cast a cloud over the interest rate outlook.

Previously, at least one more rate hike had been expected.

The Aussie touched a low of 74.17 U.S. cents after data showed just 1,300 were added to the workforce in February when expectations had centred on a 20,000 rise, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent from an upwardly revised 5.8 percent.

"It appears that employment has started to tread water after a very strong improvement in the second half of 2003," said Stephen Roberts, director of research at Grange Securities.

"The soft employment reading increases the likelihood of the Reserve Bank pausing again on the cash rate at its next board meeting in early April...the current correction in the Australian dollar against the resurgent U.S. dollar may go a little further," he said.

At 4:45 p.m. (0545 GMT) the AUD AUD= was $0.7425/30 compared with $0.7564/69 late here on Wednesday. Last week it hit $0.7402, wiping out its seven percent gain over the first few weeks of 2004, a far cry from February's $0.8005 seven-year high.

The Aussie was already on the backfoot after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate at 5.25 percent earlier in the day. Some economists had been expecting a further tightening, causing a tumble in the kiwi dollar NZD=.

Australia's, and New Zealand's, high interest rates in comparison with the rest of the world have been a major prop for both currencies but there is now a risk investors will start looking elsewhere for potential high-yielders.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar appears to have a new lease of life after its two-year downtrend as various countries talk down their currencies to protect export industries.

Indeed, the RBNZ said it would recommend to the government that it be given the ability to use New Zealand dollars to buy foreign exchange, putting further pressure on the kiwi.

New Zealand officials have repeatedly expressed concerns over the resulting strength of the kiwi due to the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. The RBNZ said it wanted to only intervene in extreme circumstances when the kiwi was unjustifiably high or low.

"This is similar to the RBA's intervention practice which is largely designed to smooth extreme movements and temper the pace of appreciation/depreciation, rather than influence the direction of the currency," said Su-Lin Ong, senior economists at RBC.

The RBA has been selling the Aussie for more than a year as it tries to replenish reserves that took a heavy hit in 2000/01 when the central bank was trying to slowdown a rapid sell-off in the currency.

ABCDiamond

But against the £ -

Time period: 01/03/04 to 11/03/04.
Daily averages: 01.03.2004,2.41810
02.03.2004, - 2.42210
03.03.2004, - 2.41050
04.03.2004, - 2.4370
05.03.2004, - 2.43240
06.03.2004, - 2.42710
07.03.2004, - 2.430
08.03.2004, - 2.43210
09.03.2004, - 2.43840
10.03.2004, - 2.41030
11.03.2004, - 2.41940

itsasecret

2.4452 todays high.
2.4439 now.

OzTennis

You beat me to it ABC! What matters to most on this forum is the A$ to £stg E/R. However, the 'not as good as expected' job figures and the doubt about an RBA interest rate increase in the first week of next month are probably bound to have an effect on this E/R in due course.

(Quick check), at 11.25 am the interbank rate is £2.4448 so the weakening of the $A against the £stg is happening!

http://www.hifx.co.uk/members/quotes.asp

OzTennis

ABCDiamond

Current rates checked NOW.

Oanda Interbank rate
1 British Pound = 2.41938 Australian Dollar

HIFX Standard rate 2.4251 http://www.hifx.co.uk/currency/converter.asp

HIFX Interbank 2.4486 http://www.hifx.co.uk/members/quotes.asp


I now see that HIFX have two rates, and worth noting the difference.

itsasecret

The standard rate has not changed all day..
I should imagine this is not updated very often,
however the Interbank rate is almost realtime..
Im not sure how much margin % they work to when converting, I bet it depends on the deal at the time and how much transfering etc..

ps.. Ive stopped looking at Oanda Interbank rate as its not realtime, its well off the mark.

OzTennis

Yep, as it says at the top of the interbank rates page this is not the rate an HIFX dealer will offer you, it depends on amount etc. Realtime rates have to be better. Of course there may be differences between rates in Oz and rates in the UK also (if only because when one sleeps the other trades!)

OzTennis

OzTennis

Over $2.45 30 minutes later. Where's those spare £'s?

OzTennis

itsasecret

OzTennis

Cheers, great information. Can you point me to where you got it or perhaps itsasecret?

OzTennis

itsasecret

lol.. No worrries.



http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/quic...ncy/index.html

I find this one good to get the figures, and HIFX for the realtime quotes.

Its always good to see how the Aus is doing against other currencies and try and work out what is causing rises/drops etc.. this in turn i hope will help me with timing of changes...
One thing i have learnt is that the Bl**dy oz $ is volitile to say the least.

Cheers.

andy thomas

I spoke with a Halewood dealer yestereday. he said that the rates shown are the Interbank rates and that when exchanging money you are quoted an exchange rate. worst case scenario he said would be a rate which is $3 cents bolow the interbank rate at the time, reading between the lines I would say that depending on the amount being transfered this margin would be less. Also remember that for only a 10% deposit you can guarentee the current rate if its acceptable until you are ready to exchange at some point in the future for no additional cost.

anyone got any spare cash as i would be happy to secure at the current rate i think,

andy

andy thomas

should have put $0.03 cents

itsasecret

2.47 on the next bit of news. (what ever that maybe.) thats the price i want.

OzTennis

Thanks for that mate and for Andy's information also. I was going to open an account with Halewood because they seem to come well recommended by others in the forum and their rates are said to be very competitive. I would guess from what Andy said that their rates, dependent on amount, would probably be between 1 and 3 cents of the interbank rate?

You say about the volatility of the A$! When we bought our property back in Melbourne (in 1994) and we were shifting £'s we only got $2.09, but when we moved to the UK it only cost us $1.33 (yep, an Aussie buck was nearly worth a quid) to buy our £'s and then a few years back we did a transfer at $3.02. We've been there, done that and got the T shirt as it were! Now we are just looking for the best timing financially, jobwise, family commitments etc for our move back.

OzTennis