Techno Freak

For sake of argument though, say you are lucky enough to have GBP 150k in equity, savings, whatever and are come out now exchanging at $1.65, you'd have approximately $247k.

Working on a median house price of around $450k in Melbourne, (there are cheaper places about, but in my opinion $450k would start to get you close to what you'd want in an Ozzie house).

If you wait 12 months on the off-chance that the exchange rate gets back toward the 2:1 mark, if it ever does, but again for sake of argument we'll assume it's back at 2:1 in 12 months time, however, it is not inconceivable that the house prices have risen 10% in the same 12 months, so your 150k GBP is now worth $300k (an extra $53k), but your $450k house is now going to cost you $495k. So, you've waited 12 months to 'save' $8k, (or 4k GBP).

Working on a 20% increase means you're actually considerably worse off by waiting as your savings, unless very well invested or are are huge in amount, are not necessarily going to keep up with house price inflation, even including the possible increase in exchange rate.

In my opinion, it is far more likely that Australian house prices will continue to increase at a fair rate whilst I have yet to be convinced that the GBP/AUD exchange rate will start to perk up any time soon. As long as UK interest rates remain low there is no chance the rate will change much.

Yes, it's all assumption, but fairly calculated assumptions based on the way Melbourne property has performed over the last few years, including through the GFC, and based on many so called financial experts that warn of the current GBP/AUD exchange rate being the new norm for many years to come.

The way I look at it at the moment the less money you have in the UK, them more reason to move sooner rather than later as your savings & equity, coupled with potential increase in exchange rate probably won't be able to keep pace with the house price increases.

There has been talk of a house price crash in Australia for some time, and maybe it will happen one day, but at the moment (and I'm no expert), there is a chronic housing shortage in the major growth areas there is still a huge influx of people moving to Australia. Quite how there can be a house crash when the demand will be out stripping supply for many years to come, I just can't see it....yet.

mark wool

there is a housing shortage in the uk they still came down. Its a case that in oz wages are not high enough to support the housing economy. People are strugglin to save any deposits up.

Techno Freak

In the UK, was the house price drop more a function of the GFC and massive job losses though?

There are still affordable houses around Melbourne, the problem I see with un-affordability are the youngsters that think they deserve/can have a 4 bed house on a decent block with a theatre room as their first house. There are plenty of affordable units and apartmnets around, what's wrong with starting at the bottom these days?

Deposit saving is an age old problem. When we bought our first house in the UK in 2000, we both had good jobs , no kids and no debt. We struggled to save for a deposit and ended up having to take a 97% loan, that was a small starter house and we were skint for the first two or three years until wages rose enough to make it bearable.

eugene43

how do houses keep going up as you need buyers? Average wage + interest rises do not work.

Techno Freak

Not everyone is on an average wage.

eugene43

thanks for the info

coolshadows

From my experience as a UK seller, I believe the slow down was due to a lack of credit, and not because people had lost jobs. I lost count of the number of people who viewed, then saw the EA mortgage adviser, only to find out they couldn't get credit.

Strewth Bruce

I work in finance and don't dispute your theory at all. The fact that Sterling is at its weakest against the AU$ for well over 10years and the Australian housing market growth is growing at an unsustainable rate means that now is probably not the best time to make the move (if you have savings).

My view is that the housing market in Australia may continue to boom in the short term but in the longer term will flatten and should then fall back (even with the supply/demand issues). The interest rate rises will bite eventually although some of the boom is driven by foreign investors who are buying australian property and could be borrowing in their home country currency for example in yen (Japanese Interest Rates 0.1%).

The Australian government have recognised that foreign investors have contributed to the rise in house prices and are introducing measures to control foreign ownership. Its a bit of a strange one however as the government won't want house prices to fall too much, as they will miss out on all that juicy stamp duty taxes.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1225857656381

As for the exchange rate I can't see it dropping below £1/$1.50, although do think within 3 years could be back nearer the £1/$2.20-$2.40

australianinleicester

I have had the same thoughts concerning the negativity on this site and other similar sights, it seems as usual the negative posters enjoy being negative and also shout loudest, I have many friends in Australia and have put the very same comments to them from some of these posters and they dispute them all, except, food has gone up, but we all eat too much anyway!

AS for the beasties that inhabit Australia with you, I lived there for 17 years, Victoria, Queensland and NSW and never had one single problem with anything at all, if you are very careless or ignore good advice you may have an issue, but the awareness of the wildlife is as natural as taking an umbrella when its raining.

As for those negative posters, how many people have emigrated to Australia in recent years, 100,000, 200,000? more, most of them are having a blast, and a few sad ones are moaning about everything, even the weather for god's sake.

So go and judge for yourself otherwise you will regret it forever.

mohogony

Yes l agree l've lived here 30 years and never had any problems with OZ's deadly creatures and l go swimming in the ocean and camping in the bush all the time, the only thing that has ever attacked or bitten me is bull ants and bees. l've seen snakes a few times out in the bush but unless you actually pick one up or step on one they won't bite you and if they did with modern anti venom treatment almost no one dies.

Pollyana

Don't assume we enjoy it until you have walked a mile in our shoes

One thing I've noticed recently is that when there is a thread viewed as "negative" it gets a lot of replies, keeps running for days or sometimes weeks. When a positive thread is started, and someone is really happy about an aspect of their life and wants to share it, it rarely has as long a life. People don't know what to say to it, and it often dies a death a lot quicker.
Bit like the fact that newspapers sell better when there is a disaster or a bad news story I suppose. Human nature is such that people enjoy reading about bad news, disasters, failures etc, far more than they enjoy the good news stories.

Personally I prefer to see all the threads as "realistic" - they are all stories of someone's experiences, and they all reflect someone's life, so they all deserve equal space and equal respect.

mark wool

i think your right there are alot of negative comments on this site but why did you leave Oz. Also leicester come on its the most un british place in britain. You probably dont really know what england is like.

coolshadows

Why keep going on about negative posts? It's as if people are desperate for positive posts to reassure their own self doubt (or negative attitude).

Perhaps someone can set up a forum that only allows positive posts, and the people needing reassurance (without the possibility of reading something they might interpret as negative) can go there.

For others who are interesting in hearing it all, feel free to use the information/comments/posts you read as pointers for your own research.

australianinleicester

I'm sorry I do not see all threads as realistic, they are the personal views of individuals and the real truth is often a casualty, the negative posters can often exaggerate their opinion to get their point across to the frustration of other posters who know what they are saying is not true.

I came back to the UK for specific personal reasons, but that was 10 years ago. I know exactly what large parts of England is like, thats why I want to leave, Leicester is where the friends and family are which is why I am here.
Anyway going back to Australia when houses sold and pound has picked up.

Because thats what the thread is about.

Droidling

'Why keep going on about negative posts? It's as if people are desperate for positive posts to reassure their own self doubt (or negative attitude).'

I've never understood that either,these are of course discussion forums after all.
I mean honestly,just how futile and pointless would it be if everyone posted 'OOh it's wonderful here etc etc' and everyone else replied 'well yes I agree totally,it sssoooo
aammaaazzzing.'
Make for a rivetting forum .