the troubadour

Germany has had an immigration of sorts of medical professionals for a decade. Many to UK funny enough. Mass migration though I think not. Life is pretty bloody good for those in work. I do know younger people in the finance industry in London complain about taxation aspects at home but they were making big pounds with tax perks and would still do very well just not clear as much in Frankfurt.

A lot of people I know with expertise do indeed work abroad but in Switzerland. Some life there while others commute and live in cheaper Germany. Austria has attractions for others, with pensions better deals than Germany as I understand but only here say.

Having a stable and affordable housing market with the added options to remain renting and a definite pensions still in place will not see a rush out the door.
Germany has it right on pensions largely as creates a stable working life with knowledge of years required and reward after assured. If can maintain at present level probably not without changes to the system.
Few would opt for an Australian type of pension or market dependant super though. I have of course discussed this within people in banking circles there.

Most of those until recently were from Eastern Europe not Islamic countries, but the Syrian crisis has seen Germany take many tens of thousands from that country both Christian and Muslim.

There are those on the right of the spectrum that share your view as protests in recent days in Dresden have shown.

With such high levels of asylum seekers gaining entry tolerance may well wane.

By and large a large degree of tolerance remains in the west with less in the east, where there are far fewer immigrants oddly.

Amazulu

I'm often surprised by the number of Germans living overseas. Met a family from Hamburg recently who were very scathing about most aspects of life in Germany. Each to their own

Both Australia and Germany are successful countries that are pleasant places to live. They basically get it right overall - although both are lacking in some areas. Germany is a very successful manufacturer for instance, but they've got the wrong idea on pensions. Australia has abundant resources that we exploit well and they provide wealth and stability. On the other hand we rely on them too much to the detriment of other areas of the economy. Germany's renewable energy policy is pathetically green and ridiculously costly, whereas our reliance on brown coal for power generation is equally stupid. Good and bad

2 great countries, each with their own problems

We'll have to agree to disagree

the troubadour

I have met Germans in Australia also a little like that. One case in question they were back in three years. Another remained as daughter preferred the lack of intensity in education in OZ. In Germany it can be merciless.
As you say all to their own. Am checking out the German work market at the moment oddly enough and would gladly locate given the right circumstances.

the troubadour

Dollar continuing its decline on the back of further big falls of the Russian Rouble. Both being commodity nations.

It seems that a 17% rise in interest rates has failed to stem the decline of the Russian currency. Putin may be in trouble.

How far will the Australian dollar decline? We need to be careful what we wish.

Beoz

Foreign funny currency fluctions always hit A dollars. That would suggest time to buy up A dollars now.

swans

Utter nonsense.

So the house I bought in 1990 as an investment cost 100k,at an interest rate of 18%,on an annual wage of around25K.Affordable,dream on.Close to 70% of gross wages just to meet the interest payments on it.(rounded down)

Same house is worth around 500k now,no huge growth or bubble.Interest rates @less than 5%,so the interest on it borrowing the full amount would be 25k rounded up.Fact is that house could be bought for payments of 30% of average wages now,unaffordable my arse.

As for saving up to retire,nonsense,but we'll all repeat that nonsense and tell each other how wise it is shall we.

Commbank funds a lot of my retirement through dividends,around 40% of my income. Total borrowings to fund both purchases would be around 195k,round it to 200k shall we.At present they have a combined worth of over $3 million,and produce a gross income of around $200k.

Now here is a difficult one,which would be easier,paying back a loan of 200k or trying to save 3 million,the answer is just so obvious isn't it..

Imagine it,no $ cost averaging,no listening to the clowns in the financial industry,no diversification,no following the crowd,no asking for the opinion of everybody else,no having my life run by opinion polls and articles.That nasty habit of thinking for myself,who could imagine it.

The infinite amusement of how mad the crowd is,always claiming they can predict the future and not one of the dozy bastards can get history right.

funny old life innit

Geordie downunder

the troubadour

Are you telling me you bought a house all those years ago costing 70% of your gross wages? So you lived on baked beans day in out and cycled to work? Not a way most of us would want to go Geordie.

Anyway whatever and today's reality is far removed from nonsense. Few young these days would wish endure such hardship you claim anyway.
Australia's housing was not at levels third most expensive in the world nor were people buying through cheap interest rates. Cheap cash loans lead to problems further down the line.
An increase in interest rates and taking it at a longstanding norm being around 7% will seriously impact on many and the market in general.
This was not the case during high interest rates of a few decades back when the movement was eventually down.

Wages for many are not that high in Australia. Well at least for many. According to Urban Economics just under two thirds of Australians earn less than $52,000 per annum.

Ok take a modest house of say $400,000 (very modest and usually very far out in most Australian cities)

So we'll round the figure for convenience sake to $50,000 which produces a multiple of 8 x gross pre tax.

Result two thirds stuffed in being able to afford a modest $400,000 unit.

That's a bit low and many I expect will claim they don't know anybody on such low earnings. Taking if up a notch to $80,000. According to Urban Economist less than 15% of the gross population fit this category.

This would still require multiples of five at this salary to afford a very modest 400,000 dollar house.

Now looking at combined salaries still close to a third earn less than $52,000 while another 15% earn between $52,000 and $78,000 combined household income. Hardly a lot.

30% of household combined incomes do top $104,000 but 7 in 10 earn less.

Hence roughly half of household incomes top $80,000 per annum.

Those that got into the market when housing was affordable as I did are laughing. I have seen a 300% rise in thirteen years with a fall in more recent times of a few per cent. My salary has not kept pace with that raise. In fact our house hold income has declined in recent times considerably.

Hence the market is way over represented by speculators thanks to Australia's far too generous tax incentives and in the bigger cities foreign investors.

As I noted first time home buyers have never been so low on the ground. The term Generation Rent is not without reason. Many will never get into the market or at tremendous personal sacrifice with likely poor returns as the wealth creation through housing runs its course.

Perhaps we may at sometime in the future return to the purpose of house buying. That being to raise a family, have security of tenure, covering inflation and modest gain rather than runaway housing inflation and wanta be get rich quick jocks without actually working.

the troubadour

Hitting resource dependant currencies as to be expected with falls in commodity prices. Should have purchased US $ when they were $104 to the Aussie. It was clear it would be short lived. Still the fall has a way to go yet I expect. So yes especially for travel.

ABCD......

The Australian aged pension will probably not be relevant to most working people, as it is exactly what you say above. It is an income support payment only, for those with low incomes after the age of 65 or 67 (depending on date of birth).

All working Australians (earning $450+ per month) have their own personal pensions, paid for by employer contributions (An extra 9.5% of your basic earnings), with lower tax on the funds earnings. 15% on fund earnings, and 10% on capital gains. With no tax paid on the superannuation payments after retirement age.

the troubadour

The Australian Aged Pension remains last time I checked still the main source of retirement funding for Australians.

Super payments are nowhere near high enough for most although do certainly favour the wealthy. Not forgetting those that use their super to enable a pension before 65 or 67.

Just what future the super in the future has is highly debated on if the regulations are changed and the government dips into it. Also those depending on share market variations over time may be in for a shock as well.
I certainly experienced a big loss some years back.

commonwealth

No rate cuts from the RBA next year.

US Feds will do the lifting = lower A$ = happy Glenn Stevo = no rate cut.

Beoz

I posted that a number of days ago when the Russians were doing funnies. And it rose the next day.

Interestingly I sent a bunch of $A to the UK at 60p. I'm in the UK in a few weeks. Might come in handy.

commonwealth

Don't travel to US. It's not that nice a place anyway.

the troubadour

It probably does depend on the housing market though. I am increasingly of the opinion that Glenn is somewhat out of his depth. Lower interest rates will feed the housing bubble and attract more off shore investors with that and cheap dollar.
Leaving rates will prohibit first time home buyers, already at a record low from entering the market.
Far too much reliance on the housing market to replace the resource decline. 2015 may be interesting or more wait and see?

Beoz

Do you know what the current proportion of property investors are foreign? I read an article a few months back stating it wasn't very much - like 1%.

So stats would be good though.