Originally Posted by ozzieeagle

With Countries borders and nationalities being so homogonised now., Possibly the most homogonised in history making it very hard to find a traditional enemy.. Combine that with the mess that youngsters are inheriting from what they would presumably see as pure greed on our parts ... being property and material owners. I'm wondering if there has ever been a full on generational war in history. With the oldies or the property owners being seen as the enemy ? It's just a niggle I've got. Like a world wide Sandanista movement, which was very much a young peoples struggle.

Originally Posted by Turban Explorer

That would be a great futuristic movie OE. A cross between Children of the Corn and Logan's Run style euthanasia for the over 60s.

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

Using the 3/5 process:

A) Best scenario: Greece defaults. Slips out of the Euro, but the rest of the Eurozone supports each other, the IMF steps in and damage is contained. Slight dip in confidence, but everyone slips pro rata, based upon their exposure. Lots of back slapping and everyone saying it was inevitable. Rates all move in co-ordination, so no big changes. Banks suffer but get over it.

AUD/UKP slips a little lower - maybe even 1.3 in the initial days, then over the next five years recovers to around 1.6 to 1.8.

B) most likely scenario: Greece defaults, followed by the rest of the PIGS over the next year or so, as they take advantage of the opportunity to get out and take contol of their currencies. Major players like IMF, USA and China try to cushion the impacts, as does the EU. Runs on banks, some fail. Governments resolve to QE, and try to print their way out. Globally we stagnate for 10 years, with large cuts in standards of living. During this time the world restructures and the old powers become less important.

AUD/UKP falls, maybe even to parity. It recovers slowly but steadily as confidence in Europe recovers.

C) Worst scenario: utter chaos. Ones Greece defaults others fall like dominos. The Euo is abandoned by most countries, leaving it as the Mark by another name.
Confidence in Europe fails, and brings down global confidence. Confidence in all currencies and nations erodes. Massive depression, cut off money supply, raging inflation to counter it. Huge cutbacks in government spending across the wold. The socialist concept of the state as a protector and provider vanishes.
Massive runs on banks all over the world. This hits London very badly. AUD remains stronger than most, due to less exposure at first. China finds its markets decimated, and cuts back on manufacturing. China collapses, and the outcome hits Australian minerals. AUD falls but later and not as badly as other currencies.

AUD/UKP rates fall alarmingly in the first 2 years, far lower than parity, then the AUD falls back and the UKP starts to climb, but not back to the same levels seen today.

Using the 3/5 rule, the most probable results fit somewhere between A and B, if we are lucky, and B and C if we are not.

Just my opion, and there are a lot of experts onBE who can and will contradict me....

Originally Posted by papilon

The Au$ is seen as a risk currency, if we do actually get a Greek default then the shit will hit the fan and there will be a flight to safety, ie US$ The Yen and Stirling. It might not make sense but that's what will happen and the Au$ will tank like it did after the GFC1.

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

I really really really haven't seen any evidence to suggest that the money will flow to the UK. Perhaps you can help a tired old man out?

Originally Posted by renth

I agree, I reckon the US$ will be seen as the only safe haven, everything else will tank. It will be a great opportunity to get some gold/silver at discount prices before they shoot for the moon shortly after.

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

Interesting perspective Papilon. I'm not sure who thinks the AUD is a risky currency, or why you think that Sterling would be a safe bet.

The UK is massively exposed to Europe, and if Europe farts the UK will crap itself. The UK is a financial centre, and we all know what happens to banks don't we? Maybe not?

The UK is also part of Europe, and may well have to pay to get them out of the mess.

The UK also has a habit of printing it's way out of problems (QE) thus devaluing the pound. Everyone laughed when Idi Amin suggested printing more money, and shot his finance minister for arguing with him. Now everyone is doing the same.

You might also like to consider interest rates, and the UKs options, as opposed to the Austrslain options.

I really really really haven't seen any evidence to suggest that the money will flow to the UK. Perhaps you can help a tired old man out?

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

Smaller newer economies might be a good bet. Korea perhaps?

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

Interesting perspective Papilon. I'm not sure who thinks the AUD is a risky currency...

Originally Posted by bingobob777

It may not be rational but it happened during GFC1. Australia sailed through relatively unscathed, meanwhile the UK was hours away from RBS closing it's doors and had to nationalise two of it's biggest banks.

Yet the $ fell from 2 to 2.6 in a few weeks. Daft I agree but still possible.

Originally Posted by papilon

The Au$ is seen as a risk currency, if we do actually get a Greek default then the shit will hit the fan and there will be a flight to safety, ie US$ The Yen and Stirling. It might not make sense but that's what will happen and the Au$ will tank like it did after the GFC1.

Originally Posted by slapphead_otool

Interesting perspective Papilon. I'm not sure who thinks the AUD is a risky currency, or why you think that Sterling would be a safe bet.

The UK is massively exposed to Europe, and if Europe farts the UK will crap itself. The UK is a financial centre, and we all know what happens to banks don't we? Maybe not?

The UK is also part of Europe, and may well have to pay to get them out of the mess.

The UK also has a habit of printing it's way out of problems (QE) thus devaluing the pound. Everyone laughed when Idi Amin suggested printing more money, and shot his finance minister for arguing with him. Now everyone is doing the same.

You might also like to consider interest rates, and the UKs options, as opposed to the Austrslain options.

I really really really haven't seen any evidence to suggest that the money will flow to the UK. Perhaps you can help a tired old man out?

Originally Posted by Amazulu

Strangely, the price of hotel rooms has gone up by at least 30% - the perfect poms wouldn't be trying to rip people off would they?