Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

No, he actually DID do it. He cut off our exports, fuel and much needed armaments for 2 weeks to convince us they were serious. Smith decided to test him just is case he was bluffing.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

Oh, thanks for this, TigerOC. I didn't know. As you suggested in one of your earlier posts, one wonders who has ended up better off after all this "liberation". What an empty slogan that was!

I am too young to remember the horrors of Congo, Zanzibar etc., or the dashed hopes of west Africa. But I do remember, oh so clearly, how, with Zimbabwe, this time things were going to be different. And I was taken in by all that. When people said that Mugabe was just another thug and a terrorist, I thought they were being excessive. But they were right, and I was wrong.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

I disagree. I believe now, right now, is the ideal time for the US/UK to use surgical air strikes using carrier based F16/Harriers and a limited number of cruise missiles. You need to initiate with cruise missiles on strategic targets like Bob, Head of the army and various Barracks situated on the periphery of Harare. Jet strikes on Thornhill and New Sarum and Kadoma to neutralise any air support. Shortly after this put in special force units to take strategic points.

Sounds really dramatic but given the support that MT got and the election was rigged anyway I would say there is a government in waiting. The serious shock of such an attack would discourage further resistance from some of the bolder factions in the army. The Shona are a very peace loving people. They do not like violence and I know from personal experience that they do not make good soldiers. Elite Rhodesian units had the following kill rates; SAS 1000:1, RLI 500:1. The general vibe is that the population including many army and police members want a change. The people that could give problems and are really good soldiers, are the Ndebele and they want Bob's blood for the "cleansing rain" genocide. There is actually no need for any lengthy deployment as they should be in and out within a few weeks.

If you leave this for another few months Bob will have the population totally subdued again. His thugs are in process now.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

While I agree that it would be ideal now, capabiltity not a problem, and could be over within a week, the long term effects would be catastrophic.

The blacks need to understand that to get the democracy they deserve, they are going to have to do it themselves.

Military intervention won't give them any backbone- it will just make them more dependant the next time round, on someone else sorting their problems out.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

You know, I think Zimbos have had enough violence. They have had it since 1965. I get a strong impression that they have had enough but they just don't have that violent streak that is present in all caucasians to confront Mugabe and kick his ass.

The longer this situation persists the more expensive the repair is going to be. Let's face it, we are the ones that are going to be paying that bill.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

TigerOC, much as tho I agree with your wish list, what happens the day after?
The Matebele will even some scores,the Shona will even even more,
The great white Bwana will be imposing his will again,It will immediately be a PR disaster,the troops will have to leave as neither the UK nor the US wants any more bodybags in places they have no real interest in.
nope, sorry,it's going to be the same as always.
Peace eventually, treaty's with who ever is in power,lend them some money, watch oxfam ads etc wring their hands about the poor murdered etc
TIA

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

Maybe they could try a bit of ghandi's peaceful resistance- what if the 3 million plus that voted for the opposition made their way into the city centre of harare, sat down and refused to move- what if the 3 million zimbos in limbo in sa sat down somewhere and refused to move...just maybe the army or a section of it would lose their nerve.... maybe its a disaster, but what if it worked?

Am I brave enough to do that- probably not, but pushed far enough, maybe.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

That may have been true for most of the war, but during the two years I served with the RLI [1978 - 1979], we suffered some of the heaviest losses of the whole sorry bush war. It wasn't for want of trying, I might add ......

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

The Saints..RLI here too...your intake suffered most but what many, if not all the new recruits didn't know was that the country had been given away years earlier- fighting for nothing- aint that a joke.

dirty politicians, dirty crooked businessmen.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

I was in a group being briefed 15 Oct 1976. My eldest daughter was born whilst in the meeting. Kind of sweet and sour feeling.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

And I was one of the slopes,if we were closer together we could have a beer and raise to lost ones.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

slopes!- had completely forgotten that word... nothing wrong with the slopes. If it weren't for the slopes that ship would probably have offloaded its cargo by now.

a society needs checks and balances eh ;)

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

I suppose it all makes sense- when the negotiations start up, thats when the violence kicks in, with 'leaders' jockying for position. How naive I was.

I've never been impressed by mugabe- recently heard one s.african journalist describe him as the most intelligent person on the planet though- not something a slope would say...:)

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

I've no doubt the US and the UK could carry out a succesful military intervention using air strikes and cruise missiles from naval platforms, but why would they want to do this? Zimbabwe and Mugabe aren't very high on their list of priorities, and I don't think their electorates have the appetite for any more military adventures at the moment.

The solution, assuming there is one, has to come from Africa (or at least enjoy African support) to have any chance of being sustainable. I'm not very optimistic about this, but I'm even less optimistic about imposing regime change unilaterally. I suppose the West has the power to it in the short term, if they simply ignore all the political and diplomatic factors, but would they have the will to stay in place afterwards and weather the storm that would follow, including the probablity of some sort of confrontation with China? Brown doesn't seem to have the guts to prevent Chinese "security" thugs manhandling protesters in his own country.

Re: There is no crisis in Zim - Mbeki
 

To shiftdelete and 1066; off topic but I personally would like to thank you both for the fine job you did keeping us safe. Next to the "supers" you were the best COIN operatives the World has ever seen which is something to be very proud of and I salute you both with great humility. In the final year of the war I had interaction with a new black Lt who was in the Copper Queen area with some of Sithole's clowns. I asked him what he would like to achieve. He said he was a career soldier, as his father had been, but he would forgo his commission just to be a troopie in the RLI. He said they were the very best troops he had ever seen.

We had quite a connection with 1 RLI. A great friend in Gatooma was Tony Matkovich and his son Roy had been OC and his other son was the local magistrate. 1 RLI had the freedom of Gatooma. I was a Rotarian and we had an annual camp in the area for disadvantaged children every year and a stick would give up their R&R to come to the camp and help the kids. They were great guys.