TouristTrap

Say you live in S.Africa and you're in your 30's or 40's right about now. Life is great, you have a big house, nice cars, etc...etc...

Now, what if S.A. does land up the way of Zims in the next 10 to 20 years which statistically is a very real possibility due to so much legislation being enacted through similar to Zims', and you're in your 50's or 60's and sitting in a Zim-like situation. What do you do?

Another scenario here.

You have children who are at school in S.A. Unless they're in a private school and studying for their Cambridge iGCSE's, their schooling is worthless. Their university degrees are not accepted around the world - even if they can get in in the first place. Your kids can't find work in S.A. as so many hundreds of thousands of kids currently, and move overseas. Most find a way to live there permanently.

What happens to you?

Campbells

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Welcome to the BIG PICTURE, grab a pop corn and watch

Just to add to this. Our house here in NZ is valued at around $600 k at 5-1 = R3 mill.

We know couples in the area, both working, one is a teacher at our son’s nursery school and they are having a similar house built. They are not high-powered business people and just ordinary folk yet they can afford such a house.

Now, if these folk were in SA what would they have to earning to afford a R3 M house ?

SA has great weather but for me if you look at things in a global perspective it is not financially attractive.

If you consider the risk and uncertainty of the future of SA I know where I am investing in.

If we had moved out of SA ten years ago and applied all our efforts into a business here we would way better off than staying in SA like we did.

If we want sunshine we hop on a 3 hour flight to Oz.

Kitten24

My Dad bought his house 12 years ago for R90k. They have now put business rights on some of the houses in the area and he was offered R1 million last year for his house. He has decided to stay there for another year or so or till their offer reaches R1.5 million.

Daxk

TT, it's that scenario with a slight twist that went through my mind one Sunday afternoon in 2004.
We'd had the nasty, 4 guys in the house yada,yada,yada, they'd been caught and were now out on bail, parked in my driveway,waving at me and my 5 year old daughter washing the classic before a drive.

When calmness had set in late that night with a bottle of wine I had the following thoughts: A lot of my retirement top up funding had to do with rental properties that increased by 10% pa with a nice capital growth of
between 10 to 18% per year.

with all the other bits over 50 plus years,retirement one day was going to be comfortable. not stupendous, the wife did'nt marry as well as she should have, but it was'nt going to be embarrassing.

Then I looked at a few scenario's:
I tend to do the cooking and grocery shopping, it's my distress after a long day. I'd noticed a definite rise in grocery bills over a few years, it was easy, Voyager miles, i used a credit card for groceries which I would settle in full every month so there was this record spanning yonks.
Forget about the CPI, I was looking at plus 15% increase every year buying the same quantities,same groceries...
Over the next week or so, I pulled out all the other expenses, Electricity, telephone, Ama Maid and ama Gardener got way higher than minimum, 13th check, pension,free medical, accommodation,food and a 10% pay increase every year...
all the costs were between 6 and 12% higher.

I thought ok, retired person now, house paid off ,2 small new ish cars paid off, how much do they need to live a month?
how much will they need to live a month in 10 years time, assuming an average CoL of 10%?
How much will my daughters varsity cost me today and how much when I retire?
If Medical Aid has increased by x% in 5 years and it continues at that rate, when do I end up in a State Hospital, Tembisa in my case?

If I have to leave at 65 is the ZAR likely to be more or less than ZAR14=BST£
If a reasonable 4 bedroom ,swimming Pool, Golf Course estate house was selling for2.2Bar in Blue Hills in 2004, that was the price of a piece of vacant land in the UK or Ireland ,then, If property prices kept pace,

Apart from all the other motivating factors, I decided to get out while I was still employable.
And yeah, it's not a tan, I'm rusting, my daughter talks about keers needing new Tars and the Geeridge should sart eat ot ,
I'm reminded of a friend of the family who still lives in Bulawayo, 40 years pension on Rhodesian railways buys him a pack of 20 ccigarettesa month.

Campbells

Ouch, 50% up in a year or two. Serious inflation

Wonder what happened to the previously disadvantaged folk that would love to buy their own home.

I believe that the entry level in Jo’burg now is R1 mill for a new home in a complex and if it is a new complex you are talking matchbox style. We had a friend over in Dec and she was saying that the new complexes in and around Fourways you will be lucky to get a king size bed in the main bedroom and in some cases this is the only bedroom.

All this for R1 mill ?

The days of big houses in SA are gone unless you pay big time.

Mizz Teapot

I have asked the almost the same question to our "rich" friends still staying in South Africa...their answer was:

"South Africa is in a different boat that Zim, it's not going to happen in SA"


and a other answer was:

"Our business are doing so well, we worked so hard, we can't just pack up and start from scratch again"

I really hope it's not going to get worst, all my not so rich family is still there

Campbells

The first thing to go will be the amount of R you are allowed to take out.

I remember meeting ex-Rhodesians ( then) that left with their car, what they could pack in it and I think it was the equivalent to R200 they got out with.

Tick tock ………

sa2oz

The interesting thing for me is why are the prices going up an up if the situation is so bad.
We sold our home 3 yrs ago for about R500k and 2 years later friends with a similar house got over 1M?
The other BIG advantage of first world homes is the interest rate. We pay 6.5 to 7.5%, it is about 14% in RSA. So the ZAR1.5M home over 20 years costs ZAR 4.4M, at a similar rate to us it would cost ZAR 2.9M. well Excel tells me this and I believe. Also car insurance feels like a give away here becuase there is a good chance your car will remain in your possesion until you sell it to an unsuspecting buyer, not donate it to the freedom fighters RDP program

sa2oz

I dont think so, because they are busy taking out what they can too
The Zims here mostly got here with nothing too, but they lived like kings whilst there I believe. They just left it too late.
Again there are guys still doing well there too, they obviously have worked with the system.
All places where there is lack of rule, there are a small minority that seem oblivious to the problems, or just ignore it, and can't understand why they should think of leaving.

TouristTrap

If I had a dollar for every time I heard that one, I'd be wealthier than I am by far.

At least those excuses are better than the ones you used to see a lot, not that much any more funnily enough, about 7 years or so ago who packed for Perth and then promptly returned because 'it was too hard to run a house without a meid and a gardenboy'.

The only ones in Zims who do well are those who made an effort early on to get pally pally with a cabinet minister or two - trust me, I can tell some stories

sa2oz, I recall the days when the rates were in the early 20's - anyone remember those days?

Kitten24

My Dad them left Rhodesia with nothing. Him and my uncle were at school the day and my Grandfather pitched up there with the bakkie with some blankets on the back to fetch them. The left the country with their school clothes and suitcases. They lost a house in town, a farm and all their money.

Daxk

Sa2Oz, a theory about the rise in house Prices?
Demand from the Black Diamond sector plus easy credit, a very high transition rate between jobs if you are AA qualified and degreed, resultant rise in disposable income ,more credit etc...
I recall a time when bond rates hit 21% , if it happens again,the housing market will throw a wobbly.
That time the banks were giving houses away on Auction.

I see Mboweni and Uncle Trevor warning about credit levels..
and credit is based on income, 25% for the Bond, 25% for the car,25% for the credit card, 10% for Edgars,10% for Woollies,10% for Jet, 10% for each of 4 Furniture stores, etc...

Campbells

Not sure if I was in ANY situation in Zim I would consider myself ( or anyone) to be doing well.

Campbells

What did they gain for their loss ?

Every action - re-action

Campbells

Everything in Africa is subject to change without prior notice

e.g. - monorail

El preseidente , has da power. It is his own monery to do as he pleases - as per Mugabe etc etc ......