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Dec 31st 2014, 7:59 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Of course, that would give me confidence that there is about a 50% chance of success. That kind of sample size would be robust. The extra 1 person who voted no would not be statistically significant...
Dec 31st 2014, 6:01 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

No it can't determine the outcome, but it can give an estimate of risk.

I agree it's super rare and naive of me to think that I would get many responses. But that naivety aside, given enough data...
Dec 31st 2014, 5:42 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Thanks, that's a really useful post. I apologise for letting my anxiety creep in to the discussion.

I also agree that sufficient data isn't freely available to draw conclusions. Thought it was...
Dec 31st 2014, 5:08 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

It's not like dice because the chances of each outcome occurring are not precisely equal. Horse race, maybe, dice no.

We can all agree that certain time gaps between entry, (assuming the same...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:58 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Two people sending letters will have two different results. It's still possible for me to say with confidence, that there is at least an 80% chance of the letter arriving.

I'm not looking for...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:56 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

It's not moot. Maybe I just want to go shopping in New York for a couple of weeks.

So just to be clear, you are saying if I have 10m in the bank, no job, and an ESTA. The most likely outcome is...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:51 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Well that's like saying, if I post a letter by royal mail, it either gets lost in the post, or it does not. It's unpredictable. therefore a 50% chance.

Trying really hard to not sound ungrateful...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:46 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

So taking this logic, if I inherited 10 million pounds and quit my job. I would never be let in the US to visit?
Dec 31st 2014, 4:45 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Did you choose 50% based on personal experience if it being so unpredictable as to be essentially random. or do you mean about 50% of people get turned away on average.

They are quite different...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:43 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

No i own the business. I'm in charge. But I'm the director, not the day to day manager. If I go away for 2 months, nothing much changes, unless my manager quits suddenly. In which case I'd have to...
Dec 31st 2014, 4:40 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Why is this odd? Not being defensive (well maybe just a tad) just wondering.

A sign of a well managed business, for me, is that it can sustain itself. I have good managers that I trust.
Dec 31st 2014, 4:36 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

I'm hoping for anecdotal evidence only of course. If somebody has been in the situation, then that has some value. I don't think it's perfectly true to say no one has any idea at all.
Dec 31st 2014, 11:23 am
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Yes I unerstand how this is slightly dodgy. Any one care to guess what the chances of success are for this particular one off 70-30-60 situation?
Dec 30th 2014, 11:45 pm
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Re: Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

Yes sorry, I meant ESTA of course.

So this is the likely sequence of events:

I go to the US for around 70 days.
I return to the UK for around 30 days.
Then I return to the US again
...
Dec 30th 2014, 6:28 am
Replies: 40
Views: 2,308
Posted By miltones

Uk Business owner and b2 visa.

I own a business in the uk with 500k turnover and permanent staff and offices. I also have 200k cash in the bank. No house. Is this sufficient tie to the uk to obtain a b2 visa? I'm single 35.
...
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