miltones

Why is this odd? Not being defensive (well maybe just a tad) just wondering.

A sign of a well managed business, for me, is that it can sustain itself. I have good managers that I trust.

scrubbedexpat099

So it is more of a passive investment?

mikelincs

Every tome you arrive in the US with a visitors visa you have a 50% chance of being let in, either you will get in, or get turned away, it may depend on a lot of factors, your travel history to the UK, proof of ties to home, what sort of night the POE official had the night before, did he have a row with his/her partner, did he get a good nights sleep, is he feeling in a good or bad mood. A lot of this you can do nothing about, but the travel history etc you can. No-one on here can give you a definitive answer because of the all imponderables that you can have no influence on. At the end of the day it's up to the POE official to decide.

miltones

No i own the business. I'm in charge. But I'm the director, not the day to day manager. If I go away for 2 months, nothing much changes, unless my manager quits suddenly. In which case I'd have to return instantly.

AdsUK

The problem is the fact that it can sustain itself. ie... you lose the proof that you need to leave the US for the sake of business, because you are admitting you could stay in the US and the business would carry on happily without you.

By saying "business needs me to be back within xyz timescale" actually works in your favour in my view.

miltones

Did you choose 50% based on personal experience if it being so unpredictable as to be essentially random. or do you mean about 50% of people get turned away on average.

They are quite different things.

miltones

So taking this logic, if I inherited 10 million pounds and quit my job. I would never be let in the US to visit?

scrubbedexpat099

He meant outcomes, seemingly a regular confusion and I have given up arguing.

There are 2 outcomes, you get in or you do not.

My soon to be available app computes a 46.82% chance of success.

miltones

Well that's like saying, if I post a letter by royal mail, it either gets lost in the post, or it does not. It's unpredictable. therefore a 50% chance.

Trying really hard to not sound ungrateful for your help, but I'm really struggling to see the point you are trying to make.

There is lots of anecdotal evidence out there I'm sure that might inform an answer. Just becuase you have not sent enough letters to give an opinion, doesn't mean it's impossible to do

AdsUK

Really...

OK, from a POE officer's view... With £10m in the bank, if you have no ties to the UK, what possible reason would you have to leave the US? You could buy a property, and live illegally quite comfortably... The POE officer is just concerned with "are you going to stay in the US legally and then leave?" They don't care how much you have in the bank - if you cannot prove you have reasonable cause to leave the US they won't let you in...

Of course with £10m, you could get an investor visa, leading to a green card and it's a moot point.

AdsUK

2 people with the same circumstances could end up with different results dependant on the POE officers involved. The reality is no-one is going to give you the answer or reassurance you're looking for because we cannot do it.

miltones

It's not moot. Maybe I just want to go shopping in New York for a couple of weeks.

So just to be clear, you are saying if I have 10m in the bank, no job, and an ESTA. The most likely outcome is refusal at POE?

Wow, that's crazy. Not saying I don't beleive you, you obviously have more experience than me with this, but I'm just completely blown away that the rules are so mad.

miltones

Two people sending letters will have two different results. It's still possible for me to say with confidence, that there is at least an 80% chance of the letter arriving.

I'm not looking for assurance, just an answer informed by evidence..

AdsUK

The fact is I don't know! Can you not understand no-one on here knows?

It doesn't matter if you believe me, i'm just giving an opinion as is everyone.

If you turn up with £10m in the bank, jobless on your first visit on a VWP, chances are you aren't going to be asked if you have a job etc etc.. You'd be asked the basic questions.

If you turn up regularly to the door of the US and asked to be let in, then the chances are they are going to look deeper and deeper into your circumstances.

YOU think the rules are mad - the USA doesn't care! All they care about is keeping non-US citizens out of the USA, so if you start waving red flags with your travel pattern they will say no.

AdsUK

I understand what you want, but i'm sorry to say it isn't going to be forthcoming from anyone.