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Old Oct 8th 2016, 2:15 am   #91
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Originally Posted by Kotare View Post
It depends on your timeframe, my last time in NZ in 2006—9 the rate was fluctuating from 2.7 to 3.0 (from memory) and it was well over 2.0 most of last year. Since the late 20's the UK has been deliberately devaluing the £ and the $ has wild swings due to commodity prices etc - I could do with one of the latter for a month :-)

Viewpoints: How low can the pound go? - BBC News

The above link is very relevant to anyone who wants/needs do any forex or has any interest in this thorny subject.
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Old Oct 17th 2016, 10:32 am   #92
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Smile Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

Seems inflation is picking up in imported FMCGs, food had actually been deflating for the last few years and it's clear from from the tussle between Tesco and Unilever there is a lot of pressure not to pass on costs. It'll be interesting to see how workers weather this and what wage pressure will be like. Bank of England say they'd tolerate an "overshoot" on inflation with annual rates forecast between 2.1 to 3% next year.

Full inflation figures will be out on Tuesday in the UK.
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Old Oct 17th 2016, 6:17 pm   #93
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

From what I have read the real impact will not be felt for a few months yet.
Most large buyers are hedged against currency risk until at least the end of the year.
After that, imports start to get expensive.
Ireland are not happy because they export a lot of beef and dairy produce to the UK and they are starting to look too expensive.
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Old Oct 18th 2016, 7:02 pm   #94
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Smile Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

Bumped to a 1% p.a. rate from 0.6% p.a. last two quarters. Wage growth is at 2% so wages are not yet deflating in real terms.

As for PM Mays wishful thinking in her speech about savers being rewarded etc. etc. anyone who depends on fixed returns is about to be properly screwed by inflation .

This is part of the Brexit adjustment and the UK can remain competitive by reducing real wages as inflation rises (people notice a nominal decrease more than a sliding standard of living.) The current account deficit is a more difficult problem, British buyers really love their imported tat.
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Old Oct 19th 2016, 10:51 am   #95
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Smile Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Originally Posted by Charismatic View Post
This is part of the Brexit adjustment and the UK can remain competitive by reducing real wages as inflation rises (people notice a nominal decrease more than a sliding standard of living.) The current account deficit is a more difficult problem, British buyers really love their imported tat.
ONS employment data:
Quote:
- UK labour market as jobs growth dipped to 106,000, compared with the 174,000 jobs added in the three months to July.
- Regular pay growth adjusted for inflation was just 1.7 percent, the least since February 2015.
I wouldn't have expected reduced employment growth, the UK has been able to reduce wages and remain competitive much more rapidly than most other countries which has kept unemployment low.
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Old Oct 19th 2016, 7:02 pm   #96
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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ONS employment data:


I wouldn't have expected reduced employment growth, the UK has been able to reduce wages and remain competitive much more rapidly than most other countries which has kept unemployment low.

Good lord. $1.67!
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Old Oct 20th 2016, 11:38 am   #97
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Good lord. $1.67!
Fabulous, time to stock up on shopping from M&S and buying a few pound notes.
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Old Oct 20th 2016, 11:20 pm   #98
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Fabulous, time to stock up on shopping from M&S and buying a few pound notes.
Indeed! Not so good for those who are currently in the throws of coming here with their weak pounds. Currency. There will always be a winner and a loser.
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Old Oct 24th 2016, 10:16 am   #99
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Unhappy Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

Looks like banks will get no special treatment and banks have responded to the threat to their business by promising relocation ASAP. If it's a bluff by Mays government it's getting pretty dangerous, once you start firing people it's probably more difficult to turn back than relocate.
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 5:20 am   #100
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

Kiwi is up again, in context I'm glad I'm paid in NZD rather than GBP.
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 6:16 am   #101
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Kiwi is up again, in context I'm glad I'm paid in NZD rather than GBP.
1.66. I feel for people who have their UK pensions paid in GBPs and need the money to live here. Their pension income is down by almost 20%.

I have no idea how anyone can afford to emigrate now given the miserable exchange rate.

I wonder if people who got almost 4 to the pound in the early 2000s said that when I moved here in April 2005?
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 6:20 am   #102
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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1.66. I feel for people who have their UK pensions paid in GBPs and need the money to live here. Their pension income is down by almost 20%.

I have no idea how anyone can afford to emigrate now given the miserable exchange rate.

I wonder if people who got almost 4 to the pound in the early 2000s said that when I moved here in April 2005?
Anyone who gets a State pension can switch to NZ super and do very well if outside the 4 year tax holiday.
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 7:11 pm   #103
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Anyone who gets a State pension can switch to NZ super and do very well if outside the 4 year tax holiday.
Indeed. But the ones who have a private or police, NHS or any other than a UK state pension are currently not doing well if they need to bring it over from the UK each month.
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 7:34 pm   #104
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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Indeed. But the ones who have a private or police, NHS or any other than a UK state pension are currently not doing well if they need to bring it over from the UK each month.
You are talking about me :-) and yes painful - I am leaving it it the UK in the hope that once Brexit is sorted the £ will rise. If in a couple of years it is still dire I will take the hit - sob.
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Old Nov 3rd 2016, 7:47 pm   #105
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Default Re: money to be made with brexit exchange rate

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You are talking about me :-) and yes painful - I am leaving it it the UK in the hope that once Brexit is sorted the £ will rise. If in a couple of years it is still dire I will take the hit - sob.
I took the 'hit' last year, I remember getting as much as 2.74 once, most of my capital was done at 2.64 back in March 2005.

I got (about last year around June time I think) 2.20. Before the big fall. I was delighted eh? Never ever thought it would bounce back from the doldrums of 1.80 (to 2.20 and above) where it was for so, so long.

Like you, what is left is staying there for now.
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