Genesis

Viewpoints: How low can the pound go? - BBC News

The above link is very relevant to anyone who wants/needs do any forex or has any interest in this thorny subject.

Charismatic

Seems inflation is picking up in imported FMCGs, food had actually been deflating for the last few years and it's clear from from the tussle between Tesco and Unilever there is a lot of pressure not to pass on costs. It'll be interesting to see how workers weather this and what wage pressure will be like. Bank of England say they'd tolerate an "overshoot" on inflation with annual rates forecast between 2.1 to 3% next year.

Full inflation figures will be out on Tuesday in the UK.

LittleGreyCat

From what I have read the real impact will not be felt for a few months yet.
Most large buyers are hedged against currency risk until at least the end of the year.
After that, imports start to get expensive.
Ireland are not happy because they export a lot of beef and dairy produce to the UK and they are starting to look too expensive.

Charismatic

Bumped to a 1% p.a. rate from 0.6% p.a. last two quarters. Wage growth is at 2% so wages are not yet deflating in real terms.

As for PM Mays wishful thinking in her speech about savers being rewarded etc. etc. anyone who depends on fixed returns is about to be properly screwed by inflation .

This is part of the Brexit adjustment and the UK can remain competitive by reducing real wages as inflation rises (people notice a nominal decrease more than a sliding standard of living.) The current account deficit is a more difficult problem, British buyers really love their imported tat.

Charismatic

ONS employment data:
I wouldn't have expected reduced employment growth, the UK has been able to reduce wages and remain competitive much more rapidly than most other countries which has kept unemployment low.

Genesis

Good lord. $1.67!

Bo-Jangles

Fabulous, time to stock up on shopping from M&S and buying a few pound notes.

Genesis

Indeed! Not so good for those who are currently in the throws of coming here with their weak pounds. Currency. There will always be a winner and a loser.

Charismatic

Looks like banks will get no special treatment and banks have responded to the threat to their business by promising relocation ASAP. If it's a bluff by Mays government it's getting pretty dangerous, once you start firing people it's probably more difficult to turn back than relocate.

Charismatic

Kiwi is up again, in context I'm glad I'm paid in NZD rather than GBP.

Genesis

1.66. I feel for people who have their UK pensions paid in GBPs and need the money to live here. Their pension income is down by almost 20%.

I have no idea how anyone can afford to emigrate now given the miserable exchange rate.

I wonder if people who got almost 4 to the pound in the early 2000s said that when I moved here in April 2005?

Kotare

Anyone who gets a State pension can switch to NZ super and do very well if outside the 4 year tax holiday.

Genesis

Indeed. But the ones who have a private or police, NHS or any other than a UK state pension are currently not doing well if they need to bring it over from the UK each month.

Kotare

You are talking about me :-) and yes painful - I am leaving it it the UK in the hope that once Brexit is sorted the £ will rise. If in a couple of years it is still dire I will take the hit - sob.

Genesis

I took the 'hit' last year, I remember getting as much as 2.74 once, most of my capital was done at 2.64 back in March 2005.

I got (about last year around June time I think) 2.20. Before the big fall. I was delighted eh? Never ever thought it would bounce back from the doldrums of 1.80 (to 2.20 and above) where it was for so, so long.

Like you, what is left is staying there for now.