Trump Tracker - Spring
Feb 21st 2017, 12:54 am
#1
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Trump Tracker - Spring
It would be better with a spread sheet...but...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38663043
Hopefully this might make it more flexible...I'm figuring this topic might just run and run....and of course he's already campaigning for the following campaign...God Bless Us Every Trump!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38663043
Hopefully this might make it more flexible...I'm figuring this topic might just run and run....and of course he's already campaigning for the following campaign...God Bless Us Every Trump!
Last edited by Siouxie; Feb 21st 2017 at 4:13 am. Reason: fixed the link, thanks Ebonhawke :)
Feb 21st 2017, 2:31 am
#2
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Re: Trump Tracker - Spring
psst - you have http in there twice - breaks the link 
Feb 21st 2017, 11:05 am
#3
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Re: Trump Tracker - Spring
Not too many undecideds when it comes to Trump.
Feb 22nd 2017, 1:24 am
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Feb 22nd 2017, 3:39 am
#5
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Re: Trump Tracker - Spring
These poll trackers are often wrong as I recall......BREXIT, presidential election, Mrs May for Prime Minister. I wouldn't pay too much attention to them.
Do you think Front National will win the French Election? We live in a different world to that of just a year ago. Stick a poll on the frenchies and we can look again in a few months as to how accurate that was.
Do you think Front National will win the French Election? We live in a different world to that of just a year ago. Stick a poll on the frenchies and we can look again in a few months as to how accurate that was.
Feb 22nd 2017, 4:16 pm
#6
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Re: Trump Tracker - Spring
Polls may not always predict the outcome (for example the national polling average for the 2016 US election was spot on the results - there were a couple of geographic 'outliers' that swung the race for Trump). In the middle of an election term, the polling numbers don't really have much implication for people, except to confirm their bias for/against the administration, or for/against their fellow constituents (How can so many people believe that XX is doing a good job!?!)
However, polling numbers can have an impact on the actions of politicians, especially those who are coming up on re-election. Let's say you're a Republican member of the House of Congress and Trump/Republican leadership introduces a controversial bill, but it doesn't really impact your district.
If Trump's popularity poll is around 50% or higher, you may be more inclined to support the bill. If Trump's approval rating is 35% or lower, you may be more inclined to oppose the bill, because the chances that your support for the bill, which will air in attack ads during your re-election campaign, will be more damaging.
I think that the French 'run-off' system makes their polling more susceptible to unpredictable results than other systems. Most pundits are predicting that Le Pen will win her run-off, but that she'll lose to the winner of the Macron/Fillon run-off, with the assumption that Macron/Fillon voters will vote for each other, rather than Le Pen - but that may not be a valid assumption.
However, polling numbers can have an impact on the actions of politicians, especially those who are coming up on re-election. Let's say you're a Republican member of the House of Congress and Trump/Republican leadership introduces a controversial bill, but it doesn't really impact your district.
If Trump's popularity poll is around 50% or higher, you may be more inclined to support the bill. If Trump's approval rating is 35% or lower, you may be more inclined to oppose the bill, because the chances that your support for the bill, which will air in attack ads during your re-election campaign, will be more damaging.
I think that the French 'run-off' system makes their polling more susceptible to unpredictable results than other systems. Most pundits are predicting that Le Pen will win her run-off, but that she'll lose to the winner of the Macron/Fillon run-off, with the assumption that Macron/Fillon voters will vote for each other, rather than Le Pen - but that may not be a valid assumption.
Feb 22nd 2017, 5:45 pm
#7
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Re: Trump Tracker - Spring
Polls may not always predict the outcome (for example the national polling average for the 2016 US election was spot on the results - there were a couple of geographic 'outliers' that swung the race for Trump). In the middle of an election term, the polling numbers don't really have much implication for people, except to confirm their bias for/against the administration, or for/against their fellow constituents (How can so many people believe that XX is doing a good job!?!)
However, polling numbers can have an impact on the actions of politicians, especially those who are coming up on re-election. Let's say you're a Republican member of the House of Congress and Trump/Republican leadership introduces a controversial bill, but it doesn't really impact your district.
If Trump's popularity poll is around 50% or higher, you may be more inclined to support the bill. If Trump's approval rating is 35% or lower, you may be more inclined to oppose the bill, because the chances that your support for the bill, which will air in attack ads during your re-election campaign, will be more damaging.
I think that the French 'run-off' system makes their polling more susceptible to unpredictable results than other systems. Most pundits are predicting that Le Pen will win her run-off, but that she'll lose to the winner of the Macron/Fillon run-off, with the assumption that Macron/Fillon voters will vote for each other, rather than Le Pen - but that may not be a valid assumption.
However, polling numbers can have an impact on the actions of politicians, especially those who are coming up on re-election. Let's say you're a Republican member of the House of Congress and Trump/Republican leadership introduces a controversial bill, but it doesn't really impact your district.
If Trump's popularity poll is around 50% or higher, you may be more inclined to support the bill. If Trump's approval rating is 35% or lower, you may be more inclined to oppose the bill, because the chances that your support for the bill, which will air in attack ads during your re-election campaign, will be more damaging.
I think that the French 'run-off' system makes their polling more susceptible to unpredictable results than other systems. Most pundits are predicting that Le Pen will win her run-off, but that she'll lose to the winner of the Macron/Fillon run-off, with the assumption that Macron/Fillon voters will vote for each other, rather than Le Pen - but that may not be a valid assumption.
Can't fault your reasoning. However, polls do not win elections, it could be said they can galvanize the electorate to vote, my view is that many now choose how they will vote based on their own circumstances rather than follow what dad did with his beligerant and narrow 1960/70 views. People realize now, that their vote might actually count for something and are using it. The middle class, professional, older voter can expect to find an entire family show up at the ballot box that had previously thought "what's the point".
