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Old Apr 21st 2016, 6:37 am   #1
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Default Brexit consequences?

It is well known that UK has a referendum planned for 23 June 2016 to determine whether to stay in EU or exit (Brexit). The UK media is full of info but not much debate from expats....except those living in EU.
There are estimated between 1-2 million UK expats living around the EU countries and I just read a number have legally challenged the UK Gov't as they have been excluded from the referendum vote. Apparently the law states if non-resident UK for over 15 years a UK citizen loses his vote...I didn't know that.
If this challenge is accepted by the court in UK the date for the referendum cannot be met.
All expats on UK's Old Age Pension (OAP), living in EU, have their pensions index-linked while others, living in other countries (i.e. Indonesia; Malaysia; Australia; Canada) are denied. I haven't heard anything about the consequences of this ruling...and how UK, after exiting EU, will deal with perhaps millions of EU expats returning and demanding their pension rights if they are treated similarly to non-EU expats.
If UK exits EU it is likely the pound will devalue significantly..and so will the value of pensions paid in sterling but usually converted to expats residency currencies...this will significantly impact expats but I haven't heard any debate on this either.
Any comments?
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 4:32 am   #2
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Doesn't sound like anyone's too worried about it :-)

We're not receiving a pension from the UK so no thoughts on that. We have sometimes considered that when we're ready to settle down, we might want to go to South of France or Greece. Should UK leave the EU this will no longer be so easy

Anyway, I refuse to believe that that it will come to this
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 5:16 am   #3
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

There's s big discussion going on here, Davita. Join it at you peril!

Leaving the EU
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 5:30 am   #4
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Thanks Fenella...I agree the Brits (at least the media) seem more concerned that Obama has the audacity to mention the issue than deal with the issue.

Boris Johnson knows how to stir the ploretariat...much like Stalin and Hitler.
Trump applies the same type nationalism rhetoric in the USA Primaries.

Anyone notice that Donald and Boris are look-alikes! Strangely, Boris was born in Manhatten as was Donald.

If Trump becomes President he has vowed USA will become Great America.
If Johnson leads UK to Brexit, and the consequent dissolution when Scotland leaves, there will be no Great Britain...

If I were a UK expat living a retired life in EU I'd be very worried...in fact, I'd consider returning and claiming all benefits like NHS and welfare etc.
If millions of expats did that...the UK economy would bankrupt...

Last edited by Davita; Apr 24th 2016 at 6:19 am. Reason: sp
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 5:34 am   #5
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by InVinoVeritas View Post
There's s big discussion going on here, Davita. Join it at you peril!

Leaving the EU
See my post a couple of days ago....on the German forum as many UK expats live there...the Take-it-Outside forum isn't my type of debate.
Deathly silence is the response so far but, even here in Bali, I can hear the sucking of false teeth as my question is germinating thought...

Last edited by Davita; Apr 24th 2016 at 5:39 am.
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 7:22 am   #6
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

I do still believe that Boris is the lesser of two evils:-)

The problem is the whole the whole "Great" in "Great Britain". Too many Brits still believe this is the case and that's why they'll be much better off out of the EU. The days of the great British Empire are long gone but not everyone sees it.
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 9:55 am   #7
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davita View Post
If Johnson leads UK to Brexit, and the consequent dissolution when Scotland leaves, there will be no Great Britain...
Although I don't follow things closely anymore I can't understand why Scotland will ever again even think about leaving the UK.

Shirley after the plunge in oil prices Scotland's economy would have nose dived to zilch if the Scots had voted to leave the UK last time. They would then have had to get out the begging bowl to Westminster.
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 10:12 am   #8
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ex reg View Post
Although I don't follow things closely anymore I can't understand why Scotland will ever again even think about leaving the UK.
I suggest searching anything about Scotland leaving UK, if UK leaves EU, and you'll find lots of news on that subject....mainly to the effect United Kingdom would collapse.
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 10:53 am   #9
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ex reg View Post
Although I don't follow things closely anymore I can't understand why Scotland will ever again even think about leaving the UK.

Shirley after the plunge in oil prices Scotland's economy would have nose dived to zilch if the Scots had voted to leave the UK last time. They would then have had to get out the begging bowl to Westminster.
Shame they didn't leave, would have stopped them threatening to (not) leave again.
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Old Apr 24th 2016, 12:28 pm   #10
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ex reg View Post
Although I don't follow things closely anymore I can't understand why Scotland will ever again even think about leaving the UK.

Shirley after the plunge in oil prices Scotland's economy would have nose dived to zilch if the Scots had voted to leave the UK last time. They would then have had to get out the begging bowl to Westminster.
I guess thay could sell those Trident nuclear subs based in Faslane. Indonesia or N. Korea might want them and then I guess Australia would cancel their bidding for new subs from France, Germany and Japan.
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Old May 6th 2016, 2:52 pm   #11
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ex reg View Post
Although I don't follow things closely anymore I can't understand why Scotland will ever again even think about leaving the UK.

Shirley after the plunge in oil prices Scotland's economy would have nose dived to zilch if the Scots had voted to leave the UK last time. They would then have had to get out the begging bowl to Westminster.
Best get with the news ex reg...the Nationalist Party have, for the third time, taken most seats in the Scottish Parliament.
They have already stated that if UK leaves EU the Scots will have a referendum to leave UK.
Soon I might have 3 passports...
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Old May 6th 2016, 3:16 pm   #12
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davita View Post
They have already stated that if UK leaves EU the Scots will have a referendum to leave UK.
Neither the SNP nor the Scottish Parliament has the authority to call such a referendum. Only the UK Government has this authority. Of course the SNP would like this restriction removed, but currently that is the position.

SNP MPs claim Scottish Government should have power to call a second referendum | UK Politics | News | The Independent
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Old May 14th 2016, 4:54 am   #13
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davita View Post

All expats on UK's Old Age Pension (OAP), living in EU, have their pensions index-linked while others, living in other countries (i.e. Indonesia; Malaysia; Australia; Canada) are denied. I haven't heard anything about the consequences of this ruling...and how UK, after exiting EU, will deal with perhaps millions of EU expats returning and demanding their pension rights if they are treated similarly to non-EU expats....Any comments?
Hi Davita

As you say, currently British pensioners living in the EU get their state pensions inflation adjusted each year. The same applies to those countries with which the UK has reciprocal agreements, including the US.

But the UK stopped signing such agreements in 1981 and there are lots of countries where Britons’ pensions are frozen at their value when they are first drawn, such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Following a Brexit Britons living in many EU states could find themselves with a ‘frozen’ state pension. Those countries that entered the EU after 1981 probably won’t have a reciprocal agreement with the UK (including Greece, Spain and Portugal). Baroness Altmann (Pensions Minister) was asked about this in the House of Lords. Her response? “If there are reciprocal agreements and legal obligations to uprate, pensions will be uprated”. To my mind that’s not re-assuring.

I think another major concern for many Britons living in the EU will be healthcare. Currently they are generally entitled to free healthcare under reciprocal agreements. Following a Brexit this would no longer automatically be the case, and they may be required to pay additional social security contributions in the host country in order to qualify for state health benefits, or take out private health insurance.

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Old May 14th 2016, 5:17 am   #14
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Thanks for your very eloquent input JC3.
I wasn't aware that the issue had been even thought about in the UK parliament and thus my question.
If those UK pensioners in EU, and I read there are over a million, were to return as they might not get the pensions and welfare and medical benefits they previously enjoyed, I imagine that would be a huge drain on UK's resources.

No need to discuss immigration in that event...those retirees are citizens.
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Old May 14th 2016, 7:28 am   #15
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Default Re: Brexit consequences?

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC3 View Post
Hi Davita

As you say, currently British pensioners living in the EU get their state pensions inflation adjusted each year. The same applies to those countries with which the UK has reciprocal agreements, including the US.

But the UK stopped signing such agreements in 1981 and there are lots of countries where Britons’ pensions are frozen at their value when they are first drawn, such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.
There is a full list here:- The full list of FROZEN and UNFROZEN countries

Quote:
Originally Posted by JC3 View Post

Following a Brexit Britons living in many EU states could find themselves with a ‘frozen’ state pension. Those countries that entered the EU after 1981 probably won’t have a reciprocal agreement with the UK (including Greece, Spain and Portugal). Baroness Altmann (Pensions Minister) was asked about this in the House of Lords. Her response? “If there are reciprocal agreements and legal obligations to uprate, pensions will be uprated”. To my mind that’s not re-assuring.

I think another major concern for many Britons living in the EU will be healthcare. Currently they are generally entitled to free healthcare under reciprocal agreements. Following a Brexit this would no longer automatically be the case, and they may be required to pay additional social security contributions in the host country in order to qualify for state health benefits, or take out private health insurance.
If there is a Brexit vote (and the government votes to follow it) there is a 2-year period (after the date on which notice is given to leave) during which the EU rules will still apply and it is during this period that alternative arrangements will need to be made.
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