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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 10:41 am   #76
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by astera View Post
I don't see drone delivery being very popular anytime soon. Where are the darn things going to land? It's not like they'll set themselves down on your doorstep and leave a heavy package. Unsigned at that.

What about flight routes, etc.? Kids sabotaging the things all the time? Instead of playing Pokemon Go they'll go back to old school toys and try to down a drone...

Ultimately the biggest hit technology has done to traditional delivery is the fact that people don't write letters any more. They send emails. Even bills or banking statements come electronically nowadays. Same with books, though they are still holding up, with Kindle bound to gradually grow in terms of market share vs. pulp. As for music, movies or video games, haven't we already broken well past the 50% threshold of such "items" being delivered in electronic form vs physical media?

What's keeping delivery services going nowadays is the change in distribution methods, where people no longer head to local stores (or superstores) for all their clothing or electronic needs. In a way you could look at it differently: we have fewer but larger superstores (some in a global sense even), but those are far away, so we are seeing a return to... traditional mail-order shopping - just without the need to place an order via a postal form and with faster and cheaper shipping.
I think you are thinking about what's available today and forgetting what could be available tomorrow. As Garry has mentioned, you could develop a lofted landing pad in the street which collects and awaits for your pickup. Flight paths, well planes mange it, why not drones. Of course Zulu mentioned the danger factor, one loses its power and drops and kills, of course there's the safety issue ...... but all of this is today.

Amazon has just posted record job creation numbers, Ozzie has told us post delivery drivers have increase since 2001, the appetite is certainly there for new forms of delivery.

Who would have imagined something as simple as Uber 10 years ago? Like Uber there are things to solve, they just need to be solved.
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 11:31 am   #77
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by astera View Post
I don't see drone delivery being very popular anytime soon. Where are the darn things going to land? It's not like they'll set themselves down on your doorstep and leave a heavy package. Unsigned at that.
Actually that, rather than the number needed, is the bit I think is missing. I've been playing round with a few ideas as to how it could be addressed even (hey, there's money to be had). It's not impossible, but it has some very particular needs.

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What about flight routes, etc.? Kids sabotaging the things all the time? Instead of playing Pokemon Go they'll go back to old school toys and try to down a drone...
How many kids try to take down other flying things, or cars? It's about like trying to take down a bird, at least 100 foot up. These will be instrumented up the wazzo and anyone thinking its a smart idea is going to get arrested fast.

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Ultimately the biggest hit technology has done to traditional delivery is the fact that people don't write letters any more. They send emails. Even bills or banking statements come electronically nowadays. Same with books, though they are still holding up, with Kindle bound to gradually grow in terms of market share vs. pulp. As for music, movies or video games, haven't we already broken well past the 50% threshold of such "items" being delivered in electronic form vs physical media?
Yep, and Auspost making it worse means that mail delivery will likely die, unless a politician gets in there and sacks the lot of them.

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Originally Posted by astera View Post
What's keeping delivery services going nowadays is the change in distribution methods, where people no longer head to local stores (or superstores) for all their clothing or electronic needs. In a way you could look at it differently: we have fewer but larger superstores (some in a global sense even), but those are far away, so we are seeing a return to... traditional mail-order shopping - just without the need to place an order via a postal form and with faster and cheaper shipping.
Retail shops are becoming personal service fixated - hairdresser, nail bars, etc. The rest are either dying out, or looking to transition away from the expensive locations. To date the incredible uselessness of auspost has protected Oz shops from the full force of online competition, but the rise of things like drones will make postage something that can be offered for free.

And that means lots of retail workers that will be sacked as the online ordering/fulfilment wave rides over them.
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Old Aug 4th 2016, 9:24 am   #78
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Actually that, rather than the number needed, is the bit I think is missing. I've been playing round with a few ideas as to how it could be addressed even (hey, there's money to be had). It's not impossible, but it has some very particular needs.



How many kids try to take down other flying things, or cars? It's about like trying to take down a bird, at least 100 foot up. These will be instrumented up the wazzo and anyone thinking its a smart idea is going to get arrested fast.



Yep, and Auspost making it worse means that mail delivery will likely die, unless a politician gets in there and sacks the lot of them.



Retail shops are becoming personal service fixated - hairdresser, nail bars, etc. The rest are either dying out, or looking to transition away from the expensive locations. To date the incredible uselessness of auspost has protected Oz shops from the full force of online competition, but the rise of things like drones will make postage something that can be offered for free.

And that means lots of retail workers that will be sacked as the online ordering/fulfilment wave rides over them.
It doesn't matter whether there is a solution for drone delivery or not. America will do it, they'll throw money at regulators to disguise the failure rate and advertise to the rest of the world of how big a success it is. Then Australia will push to contract that US company to do it over here. Thousands of jobs will go based on lies, as you'd expect. More unemployed and homeless. The technology potential has the answers but the money driven bullshit artists want it asap and are prepared to cut on the investment in order to maximise profit. If technology wasn't so handicapped by the sales/marketers end, everything would be built far better and with far greater resilience.

Technology might one day take my job. I might see that as fair enough but will not I'm replaced with a tax funded subscription based program that costs the country more than what I was being paid. Buts the true future, isn't it?
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Old Aug 4th 2016, 10:26 am   #79
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Default Re: The world of automation

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It doesn't matter whether there is a solution for drone delivery or not. America will do it, they'll throw money at regulators to disguise the failure rate and advertise to the rest of the world of how big a success it is. Then Australia will push to contract that US company to do it over here. Thousands of jobs
And yet when guaranteed mincomes are talked about, the far right doesn't like the sound of that.

BTW, I expect 'fly in' food to be a winner from drones.
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Old Aug 4th 2016, 12:52 pm   #80
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Default Re: The world of automation

There is a potential massive for market for drones, and it's something that people haven't given a lot of thought too yet.


Farmers or farming communities and producers direct to the public. Cut out the Supermarkets and other affiliated shops.

You'll need 8kg maybe even 12kg payloads though and long distant drones.... 150 ks.

BTW Mail as in letters is dying no matter what Aus Post does.... although Parcels will continue to increase....no matter what Aus post does once again.


In fact given the above Aus Post could actually afford to build those 33 machines and centers as a forwarding base and justify the cost of sorting machines.
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Old Aug 4th 2016, 1:15 pm   #81
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Default Re: The world of automation

Nice little writeup of the automation of trucks problem

1.8 million American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots. What then? - Vox

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A company called Otto, founded by 15 ex-Google types, is working to build a kit that it can attach to ordinary semis, bringing them up to level 3. They expect to commercialize "soon," likely in the next year or two.
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Old Aug 4th 2016, 2:20 pm   #82
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Technology might one day take my job. I might see that as fair enough but will not I'm replaced with a tax funded subscription based program that costs the country more than what I was being paid. Buts the true future, isn't it?
Thought you were in IT - that would mean Technology created your job in the first place.

See where we are headed on this?
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 12:39 am   #83
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Thought you were in IT - that would mean Technology created your job in the first place.

See where we are headed on this?
Well no and that's the point. No-one knows where it's headed. And technology didn't create my job. It was created by demand. Most technology has been compromised for the sake of profit and the cost or billing of this technology is the new 'innovation'. No clever scientist required. AI could also be the killer of the developer, the person you believe has a job for life.

Also, if we look at the trends of global unemployment and homelessness, it suggests that technology isn't replacing jobs with other jobs.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 3:35 am   #84
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Default Re: The world of automation

Tesla have claimed they've done it..... Level 4 Automony is here. Being released en masse next year.


Elon Musk on Tesla fully autonomous car: ‘What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind… it’ll come sooner than people think’ | Electrek


I'm very surprised as I figured the Chinese would have beaten them to it......maybe they will yet.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 3:46 am   #85
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Tesla have claimed they've done it..... Level 4 Automony is here. Being released en masse next year.


Elon Musk on Tesla fully autonomous car: ‘What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind… it’ll come sooner than people think’ | Electrek


I'm very surprised as I figured the Chinese would have beaten them to it......maybe they will yet.
I just don't see the fun in autonomous cars as I enjoy driving. Public transport will surely benefit but only if its tax payer owned and won't fight for road/rail space with people controlled vehicles. But are there many prepared to buy one of these cars and take the early risk into the unknown? Not me.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 3:53 am   #86
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Default Re: The world of automation

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I just don't see the fun in autonomous cars as I enjoy driving. Public transport will surely benefit but only if its tax payer owned and won't fight for road/rail space with people controlled vehicles. But are there many prepared to buy one of these cars and take the early risk into the unknown? Not me.
It ends car ownership....you will subscribe.

All cars will be less than 33 seconds away.... With these next gen Teslas there is a fortune to be made as they will if you wish, be headed straight for car pooling uber style... So whilst your not using it it will be making you money... Tesla expect people to make a profit on their purchase... depending on how much you wish to let it out, within 18months.

I'll be totally amazed if the Chinese don't leapfrog everyone on this within 2 years.

Uber lost their battle for dominancy where it counts...... in China..... So Didi Chuxing/Baidu "will" be the biggest company in the world within 15 years.





It's a total game changer.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 3:57 am   #87
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Tesla have claimed they've done it..... Level 4 Automony is here. Being released en masse next year.
Not exactly, since they haven't actually announced it. Plus he's said that he want's his autonomous mode to be 10x safer than a human - and that's going to take some testing.

Still think 2020 for a big rush of autonomous vehicles from various manufacturers.

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I just don't see the fun in autonomous cars as I enjoy driving. Public transport will surely benefit but only if its tax payer owned and won't fight for road/rail space with people controlled vehicles.
Enjoy driving in commute traffic?

What about in town?

To the shops?

Picking up kids from school?

What about to and from the pub?

There will be instances where people actually enjoy driving, and they will likely hire a car specifically for the purpose when that bug bites. All the rest of the time the robotaxi will be a better bet.

My guess the call to ban dangerous manual drivers from urban driving will start when the number of autonomous vehicles hits 30%.

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But are there many prepared to buy one of these cars and take the early risk into the unknown? Not me.
If the autonomous car is available (a few extra $k of hardware) and you don't buy it, how are you going to sell your obsolete car a few years down the line?
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 4:09 am   #88
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Not exactly, since they haven't actually announced it. Plus he's said that he want's his autonomous mode to be 10x safer than a human - and that's going to take some testing.

Still think 2020 for a big rush of autonomous vehicles from various manufacturers.



Enjoy driving in commute traffic?

What about in town?

To the shops?

Picking up kids from school?

What about to and from the pub?

There will be instances where people actually enjoy driving, and they will likely hire a car specifically for the purpose when that bug bites. All the rest of the time the robotaxi will be a better bet.

My guess the call to ban dangerous manual drivers from urban driving will start when the number of autonomous vehicles hits 30%.



If the autonomous car is available (a few extra $k of hardware) and you don't buy it, how are you going to sell your obsolete car a few years down the line?
Just in time for my "Dottage" only issue I have is will I miss out on my Motor-homing around Aus

I cannot wait for the day, that I can get in a vehicle with everyone onboard being over the legal alcohol limit....but that's my non PC 1970's 'tudes resurfacing. I will see that as total freedom personally.

The traffic around here was getting beyond a joke....now with the internet of moving things coming along at an equal pace to automonous vehicles, I'm expecting travel times to start reducing from 2020 onwards.




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Old Aug 5th 2016, 4:22 am   #89
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Just in time for my "Dottage" only issue I have is will I miss out on my Motor-homing around Aus

I cannot wait for the day, that I can get in a vehicle with everyone onboard being over the legal alcohol limit....but that's my non PC 1970's 'tudes resurfacing. I will see that as total freedom personally.

The traffic around here was getting beyond a joke....now with the internet of moving things coming along at an equal pace to automonous vehicles, I'm expecting travel times to start reducing from 2020 onwards.




\
I prefer public transport when it's easy and affordable. I enjoy driving when I can though as it offers freedom.

My manual car is not likely to become obsolete in my lifetime and the success of the autonomous car will come down to people wanting it or not. If a truly environmentally friendly car that would last long enough without 'refilling' and offered the same or necessary power was available, I think people would opt for that first. As I said, autonomous public transport makes more sense, but people like to own and drive their own cars.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 4:45 am   #90
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Default Re: The world of automation

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I prefer public transport when it's easy and affordable. I enjoy driving when I can though as it offers freedom.

My manual car is not likely to become obsolete in my lifetime and the success of the autonomous car will come down to people wanting it or not. If a truly environmentally friendly car that would last long enough without 'refilling' and offered the same or necessary power was available, I think people would opt for that first. As I said, autonomous public transport makes more sense, but people like to own and drive their own cars.
Yehp and I think your's is definitely going to be the majority western view. Which is how I'm absolutely convinced that this will be where China and perhaps even India will race ahead as world powers with their factories pouring out billions of Automonous vehciles. The Chinese and Indians will definitely take this up.... in fact most of their first vehicles will be driverless.

As for Car Ownership..... Nope I dont want or need the hassle as soon as is practicable that is.

I was just talking to my 18yo son.... he may well never need a licence. I've been putting car licensing off for my 22yo and 18yo as I didn't want 4 vehicles at my inner urban place.
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