Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Dec 21st 2014, 8:11 pm
#16
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
The problem concerns the type of jobs. In essence things that are repeatable and where you can/have to learn how to do them, can often be automated.
So, your truck driver, along with the taxi drivers, etc. get automated by driverless vehicles. And even if it's only at the margins, maybe 3% of the jobs each year, the bottom drops out of the wages.
And as we already know, most office jobs are rote moving of paper that don't need to exist if you were a bit smarter.
Most sales staff are a net negative to the store.
And 90% of doctors are replaceable.
Hell, even hairdressers.
What's left requires creative, imaginative, non-rote input - and there aren't many of those jobs in this cog biased world - and even less that have the required spark of intellect to do them. What do you do with the rest that are ... unemployable?
If we continue with the economic model we have now, the oligarchs taking all the profit, then the wheels come off and the whole thing falls apart. You NEED to change the model, but climate change has shown how the oligarchs fight any change, even when it threatens the species, if it means they have one less zero in their bank balance.
History says we will sleepwalk into a revolution.
So, your truck driver, along with the taxi drivers, etc. get automated by driverless vehicles. And even if it's only at the margins, maybe 3% of the jobs each year, the bottom drops out of the wages.
And as we already know, most office jobs are rote moving of paper that don't need to exist if you were a bit smarter.
Most sales staff are a net negative to the store.
And 90% of doctors are replaceable.
Hell, even hairdressers.
What's left requires creative, imaginative, non-rote input - and there aren't many of those jobs in this cog biased world - and even less that have the required spark of intellect to do them. What do you do with the rest that are ... unemployable?
If we continue with the economic model we have now, the oligarchs taking all the profit, then the wheels come off and the whole thing falls apart. You NEED to change the model, but climate change has shown how the oligarchs fight any change, even when it threatens the species, if it means they have one less zero in their bank balance.
History says we will sleepwalk into a revolution.
You could look at it another way. Google employs over 50000 people. Google didn't exist 20 years ago. So in 20 years 50000 jobs were created. It just doesn't employ coders. It employs accountants, data entry clerks, cleaners, car park attendants, cooks and other type of workers not directly associated with tech. There are many more googles that have appeared in the last 20 years.
Jobs will disappear. Like the milkman, but in its place is a massive money making industry in powdered milk. But this has been going on for centuries. The individuals involved at the core levels like the milkman will just naturally evolve.
Dec 21st 2014, 8:39 pm
#17
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
People have talked about 'steady state economies', but it's such a massive change from everything we know, and with so many unanswered questions in a world that has entropy, that you are more likely to see Tony Abbott cartwheeling down the main Canberra drag, naked, with a rose up his a*** singing "The International".
Dec 21st 2014, 8:56 pm
#18
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Its not like the revolution in automated truck and taxi drivers is going to occur tomorrow. It occurs over a long period of time therefore unlikely to leave a load of truck and taxi drivers destitute.
You could look at it another way. Google employs over 50000 people. Google didn't exist 20 years ago. So in 20 years 50000 jobs were created. It just doesn't employ coders. It employs accountants, data entry clerks, cleaners, car park attendants, cooks and other type of workers not directly associated with tech. There are many more googles that have appeared in the last 20 years.
Jobs will disappear. Like the milkman, but in its place is a massive money making industry in powdered milk. But this has been going on for centuries. The individuals involved at the core levels like the milkman will just naturally evolve.
You could look at it another way. Google employs over 50000 people. Google didn't exist 20 years ago. So in 20 years 50000 jobs were created. It just doesn't employ coders. It employs accountants, data entry clerks, cleaners, car park attendants, cooks and other type of workers not directly associated with tech. There are many more googles that have appeared in the last 20 years.
Jobs will disappear. Like the milkman, but in its place is a massive money making industry in powdered milk. But this has been going on for centuries. The individuals involved at the core levels like the milkman will just naturally evolve.
- Driverless vehicles are within sight, with google's car clocking up 700,000 autonomous miles already. In short, it's in the foreseeable. And once you can do it once, you can mass produce it and churn them out on every new truck. The economics of driverless makes a lot of sense, so you should expect to see a swap over as fast as regulations will allow. Anyone who has ever done finances on a company know how big a burden people are.
- Even if it's only something that at first extends driver hours by taking over the freeway/motorway driving - it cuts the number of driver jobs quickly, and thus cuts the wages. In essence the salary is priced on the margin - and this would be like an atom bomb.
- It's not specific jobs. It's a whole class of jobs - those that you get trained for and have a rote repetitive nature. In other words, most of them. Every business manager will jump at the chance of automating most of their jobs and cutting their workforce to a tenth of its original size, and because it happens to whole job types in one go, it's almost as if you say "hairdressers, you're all sacked tomorrow".
- There are no replacement jobs of the same class, the trained for, repetitive class - since they get automated from the get go. It's not a case of retraining, it's a case of different classes of jobs, and I don't think they are likely to be there, or that the sacked rote repeaters would be able to do them.
- And in any case, the financial system and society collapses before you can make the change. The swiftness of it outpaces the possible adaptation rate. Rough guess, once this gets going? 50% of people lose their jobs within 20 years, if nothing stops the BAU business models.
Dec 21st 2014, 9:55 pm
#20
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Your are missing five things in what I said:
- Driverless vehicles are within sight, with google's car clocking up 700,000 autonomous miles already. In short, it's in the foreseeable. And once you can do it once, you can mass produce it and churn them out on every new truck. The economics of driverless makes a lot of sense, so you should expect to see a swap over as fast as regulations will allow. Anyone who has ever done finances on a company know how big a burden people are.
- Even if it's only something that at first extends driver hours by taking over the freeway/motorway driving - it cuts the number of driver jobs quickly, and thus cuts the wages. In essence the salary is priced on the margin - and this would be like an atom bomb.
- It's not specific jobs. It's a whole class of jobs - those that you get trained for and have a rote repetitive nature. In other words, most of them. Every business manager will jump at the chance of automating most of their jobs and cutting their workforce to a tenth of its original size, and because it happens to whole job types in one go, it's almost as if you say "hairdressers, you're all sacked tomorrow".
- There are no replacement jobs of the same class, the trained for, repetitive class - since they get automated from the get go. It's not a case of retraining, it's a case of different classes of jobs, and I don't think they are likely to be there, or that the sacked rote repeaters would be able to do them.
- And in any case, the financial system and society collapses before you can make the change. The swiftness of it outpaces the possible adaptation rate. Rough guess, once this gets going? 50% of people lose their jobs within 20 years, if nothing stops the BAU business models.
If everyone sticks with the idea of "this will happen for sure" with a half glass full attitude then we go no where.
Dec 21st 2014, 10:13 pm
#21
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Think of the historical example of farming, and how mechanisation so massively change the employment on the land. Think of typists, secretaries, bank tellers. Now think of the intelligence needed to do most jobs, and of how "working from home" so easily and quickly changed to "outsourced to India".
We are already in the beginning of these changes, with automation and outsourcing cutting the legs from the employment market and with it the spending power on which the economy is based. "Something will turn up" isn't a strategic plan for coping.
Dec 22nd 2014, 12:09 am
#22
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
More "when will".
Think of the historical example of farming, and how mechanisation so massively change the employment on the land. Think of typists, secretaries, bank tellers. Now think of the intelligence needed to do most jobs, and of how "working from home" so easily and quickly changed to "outsourced to India".
We are already in the beginning of these changes, with automation and outsourcing cutting the legs from the employment market and with it the spending power on which the economy is based. "Something will turn up" isn't a strategic plan for coping.
Think of the historical example of farming, and how mechanisation so massively change the employment on the land. Think of typists, secretaries, bank tellers. Now think of the intelligence needed to do most jobs, and of how "working from home" so easily and quickly changed to "outsourced to India".
We are already in the beginning of these changes, with automation and outsourcing cutting the legs from the employment market and with it the spending power on which the economy is based. "Something will turn up" isn't a strategic plan for coping.
That said, the concept of farmers, secretaries and bank tellers has shifted and will continue to shift. A good case point is dairy farming in New Zealand. What was once sheep farming has turned into dairy farming for the world wide export market. Powdered milk plants generate 2 million dollars a day in powdered milk for world wide export, and the surrounding industries that hang off this booming industry is huge. New plants are being designed and built all the time. Farmers have either, sold up, or shifted their efforts to hang off this booming industry.
Dec 22nd 2014, 12:29 am
#23
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Which is why I've been rabbiting on about govt policies on tertiary education. The one big policy I disagree about. The govt should be investing heavily into education to start shifting the "intelligence" level into these areas and be competitive world wide with brain power.
Dec 22nd 2014, 12:40 am
#24
Account Closed
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 0
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Asking us to embrace un heard of job losses coinciding with un heard of population increase is asking us to embrace the end of humanity as we know it. Logans run meets mad max. The end is nigh, we're all doomed
Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas
Dec 22nd 2014, 1:25 am
#25
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Driverless cars initself has the potential to create a whole new industry with people needed to service that industry. Every car could be hired as there would be many different types for different purposes, a commute car would be totally different to a long distance "rest and entertainment vehicle" v a shopping car etc etc. Driverless cars to me spells the end of the tie and responsibility of car ownership. You summons your vehicle at a certain time and it's there waiting.
I can see lots of jobs being created in the service and maintainance and cleaning industry because of driverless cars.
On the jobs front I dont think it's anywhere near as gloomy as people are projecting.
I can see lots of jobs being created in the service and maintainance and cleaning industry because of driverless cars.
On the jobs front I dont think it's anywhere near as gloomy as people are projecting.
Dec 22nd 2014, 3:14 am
#27
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
The more people to buy the products the richer the corporates become, there will be a cut off point somewhere on the jobs front.
Dec 22nd 2014, 3:20 am
#28
da Bonehead
Joined: Jan 2004
Location: Lion in da jungle
Posts: 22,767
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Seeing cheap operating / production costs could blind them.
Dec 22nd 2014, 3:37 am
#29
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Who knows, but I'll stick with the lessons of history on this one, where every job related revolution was met with the end of days... In fact the opposite has happened every single time. We'll be fine as long as the population increases IMO.
All one has to do is remember the Luddites and previous generations of Naysayers.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Dec 22nd 2014 at 3:43 am.
Dec 22nd 2014, 4:48 am
#30
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2008
Location: Perth
Posts: 6,775
Re: Why A Big Australia When Future Is Automation?
Its not like the revolution in automated truck and taxi drivers is going to occur tomorrow. It occurs over a long period of time therefore unlikely to leave a load of truck and taxi drivers destitute.
You could look at it another way. Google employs over 50000 people. Google didn't exist 20 years ago. So in 20 years 50000 jobs were created. It just doesn't employ coders. It employs accountants, data entry clerks, cleaners, car park attendants, cooks and other type of workers not directly associated with tech. There are many more googles that have appeared in the last 20 years.
Jobs will disappear. Like the milkman, but in its place is a massive money making industry in powdered milk. But this has been going on for centuries. The individuals involved at the core levels like the milkman will just naturally evolve.
You could look at it another way. Google employs over 50000 people. Google didn't exist 20 years ago. So in 20 years 50000 jobs were created. It just doesn't employ coders. It employs accountants, data entry clerks, cleaners, car park attendants, cooks and other type of workers not directly associated with tech. There are many more googles that have appeared in the last 20 years.
Jobs will disappear. Like the milkman, but in its place is a massive money making industry in powdered milk. But this has been going on for centuries. The individuals involved at the core levels like the milkman will just naturally evolve.
The jury is out on the number of jobs about to be lost but the extreme number it is in the millions. Few areas will be free losing out. New jobs will be formed but in the main cold comfort for those cast out. Robotic technology is the thing to study though.