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Wow - Iowa primary

Wow - Iowa primary

Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:16 am
  #1  
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Default Wow - Iowa primary

the initial results do not look good for sanity

Barack and Huckabee are projected to win

My reason for saying this is that

1. Huckabee is a religious nutter

2. Given the choice in the real thing america will vote for a conservative christian over a black man

= reason loses
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:18 am
  #2  
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Early days.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 10:11 am
  #3  
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by scotch03 View Post
Early days.
Way too early to forecast anything from this. Carter (76) and Clinton (96) both won the Democratic Iowa Caucus and went on to become the nominee and then president and were the only two to do this in the last 35 years.

Meanwhile plenty of people have won the caucus and not even got nominated to run, like Muskie, Gephardt, and Harkin.

Taking contemporary factors into account though, I would argue that Obama is looking good for the Democratic nomination. Let's just wait and watch the NH primary.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 12:26 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by BritGuyTN View Post
2. Given the choice in the real thing america will vote for a conservative christian over a black man
My initial thought was the exact opposite: that while Huckabee has a degree of personality, his religious views are so immoderate and his tax plans so barking that he will alienate so many to the point that this is an election the Democrats could only lose with a concerted effort. But then I was struck by the fact that a) most of the people likely to be alienated by Huckabee are Democratic voters anyway and b) the Democrats have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

I'm not a huge fan of Obama: he's not an electrifying speaker like he's been made out to be, his answer on Pakistan was disturbing, and I don't want hope/inspiration/values from a elected official, I want concrete plans! But then as I'm not a registered voter, I suppose I can ram my opinion...
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 12:36 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by lapin_windstar View Post
My initial thought was the exact opposite: that while Huckabee has a degree of personality, his religious views are so immoderate and his tax plans so barking that he will alienate so many to the point that this is an election the Democrats could only lose with a concerted effort. But then I was struck by the fact that a) most of the people likely to be alienated by Huckabee are Democratic voters anyway and b) the Democrats have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

I'm not a huge fan of Obama: he's not an electrifying speaker like he's been made out to be, his answer on Pakistan was disturbing, and I don't want hope/inspiration/values from a elected official, I want concrete plans! But then as I'm not a registered voter, I suppose I can ram my opinion...
I am hugely disappointed with the present line-up on both sides. Is this the best a country of 300 million people can do? Not inspiring.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 1:12 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by Tableland View Post
I am hugely disappointed with the present line-up on both sides. Is this the best a country of 300 million people can do? Not inspiring.
Agree there, I don't like any of them.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 1:41 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by Tracym View Post
Agree there, I don't like any of them.
Totally agree, 100%. Whoever it comes down to, I figure I'll vote for the lesser of 2 evils.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 1:55 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by Tableland View Post
I am hugely disappointed with the present line-up on both sides. Is this the best a country of 300 million people can do? Not inspiring.
Take anybody and have a large team working the dirt on them 24/7 for months on end (or considerably longer in the case of Hils) and you'll manage to discredit them all.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:15 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by fatbrit View Post
Take anybody and have a large team working the dirt on them 24/7 for months on end (or considerably longer in the case of Hils) and you'll manage to discredit them all.
Maybe Hils is the best bet because they may have blown their load too early on her.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:20 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

I bet it shoke Hilary I felt that she thought it was a done deal, I can't believe she came in 3rd!
NH will be interesting I am getting into this and can't even vote.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:24 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

I can't either. However, after reading up on how the Iowa caucus is done, it really shouldn't be a surprise. I agree with the need for new and younger blood in politics as a whole but I won't be voting for Obama if he becomes the candidate for his party. From what I've read and seen of him, it is as phony as the any other politican. An Oscar contender he is not.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:24 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by sunflwrgrl13 View Post
Totally agree, 100%. Whoever it comes down to, I figure I'll vote for the lesser of 2 evils.

Unfortunately, that has been our choice for far to long
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:37 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by neil View Post
Maybe Hils is the best bet because they may have blown their load too early on her.
The biggest problem with Hils is that she doesn't appeal to disgruntled old-style Repugs who could swing coz they're not really into the crazy neocon crap. Something, which I find really odd because she is a Republican in the Goldwater mold. Indeed, she was a member of the party in her college years.

Edwards is the best bet for the Dems -- white, southern twang, attractive to middle-aged women. Bit like Carter and Clinton, really.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:44 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

This caucus represents the collective will of about 400,000 (total for both sides) particularly politically-motivated Iowans, nothing more.

My predictions:
Huckabee's done once he's out of Iowa. On a personal level, I hope this is true.

Guiliani will make a resurgence.

McCain will win a bunch of primaries.

Clinton will stomp Edwards from here on out.

Obama's a bit of a wild card, but I still can't see him getting the nominations.

I predict McCain/Guiliani vs. Clinton/Edwards in the election. No idea who would win that one.
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Old Jan 4th 2008, 2:46 pm
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Default Re: Wow - Iowa primary

Originally Posted by fatbrit View Post
The biggest problem with Hils is that she doesn't appeal to disgruntled old-style Repugs who could swing coz they're not really into the crazy neocon crap. Something, which I find really odd because she is a Republican in the Goldwater mold. Indeed, she was a member of the party in her college years.

Edwards is the best bet for the Dems -- white, southern twang, attractive to middle-aged women. Bit like Carter and Clinton, really.
I would have to say Edwards also for the Democrats lets see what he pulls of in NH.

Republicans Huckabee.
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