notacrime

Low in relation to what?

It IS a bit surprising that the dollar is staying so strong. Probably because USD is still the world reserve currency for better or worse.

If China decides to start dumping US t-bills that will put downward pressure on the dollar. But they don't appear to have anything to spend it on or replace the t-bills with. Everyone is in the same boat! What are they going to do - buy pesos instead?

Jerseygirl

Everyone knew it wouldn't last...you had a run of good luck for a while that's all.

CarrotCruncher

Indeed we did. I am just grateful that I was able to get $2.05 to the £ when I did my major currency exchange. At the time I was trying to decide wethere or not to keep my money in the UK or move it; I am glad I moved it.

zargof

Why should the dollar tank? In fact it's already pretty weak in relation to the yen. However, the euro and the pound are even weaker, and there doesn't seem to be any indication that that is going to change in the near future.

Taffyles

Yes lets hope Hilary can appease the giant. China is now asking for guarantees on its US treasury holdings, they want to keep the dollar high, but how long are they going to keep buying US debt. In the meantime major economists here all seem in (rare)agreement that to combat the recession we have to devalue the dollar. If China calls the US on their IOUs??? or if anybody else does at the moment.... it has happened before.

It's inevitable that the dollar will devalue for a variety of reasons- we're printing money like there's no tomorrow - the budget deficit -rising unemployment- all the big money going into gold................

bromleygirl

I hope you are right I'm hoping the dollar will become weaker so that when I need to exchange my pounds for USD this summer the rate will be better.

Scot_in_NYC

Aye, and Hearts might win the Champions League.....

meauxna

But the price of everything will have doubled & there you'll be.

We get paid from the UK too and it's like having a pay cut after all those raises last year...

zargof

OK, a couple of points here:

1) We are not printing money, there has been no quantitive easing. However, there has been an increased amount of debt. But the thing is, this hasn't made the dollar weaker, if anything it's become stronger. The reason for this is mainly because of the reserve currency status of the dollar. Until that changes then the dollar is always going to remain relatively strong.

2) Regardless of the state of the US economy, the UK economy is in a worse state, and IMO it's going to take longer to improve than the US. What this means is that the dollar is going to stay strong against the pound for the forseeable future.

3) I'd like to see evidence of a consensus from economists on a devaluing of the dollar, because I don't see it. Got any links?

Here's a little light reading for you:

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/0...upport-dollar/

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/0...ollar-rallies/

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currenc...689962577.html

Taffyles

[QUOTE=zargof;7295386]OK, a couple of points here:

1) We are not printing money, there has been no quantitive easing. However, there has been an increased amount of debt. But the thing is, this hasn't made the dollar weaker, if anything it's become stronger. The reason for this is mainly because of the reserve currency status of the dollar. Until that changes then the dollar is always going to remain relatively strong.

" Just how much money is the U.S. government printing to meet its debts? Steven Horwitz, professor at St. Lawrence University, and co-author of The Austrian Economists blog, explains that the amount of money printed in the past few months since the October economic crisis, has been absolutely unprecedented in U.S. history. “Since September, the 'monetary base,' which is the measure of currency plus bank reserves, has doubled from about $850 billion to $1.7 trillion, about $600 billion of which is in the form of bank reserves,” he says. "

Article continues here info here http://hnn.us/articles/60041.html





2) Regardless of the state of the US economy, the UK economy is in a worse state, and IMO it's going to take longer to improve than the US. What this means is that the dollar is going to stay strong against the pound for the forseeable future.

I don't believe that- its being generally reported that things are worse in the US. We have the biggest budget and trade deficits of any nation ever- the dollar is being held up by nothing but debt

3) I'd like to see evidence of a consensus from economists on a devaluing of the dollar, because I don't see it. Got any links?

Can't give a link for a consensus. It was my consensus gleaned from the horses mouths.. watching interviews with top economists, financiers, investors on TV channels such as Bloomberg. For example Feldstein (Harvard U) explaining how the only way to turn a trade deficit into a trade surplus is to devalue the currency.
While they all differ in their opinions of the current crisis and what to do about it- they have all stated that the dollar will be devalued this year.

Here's a link though to the ten major threats to the Dollar in 2009 (its a skeptics viewpoint but the article contains many interesting links)

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/0...ng-dollar.html


But it doesn't matter who's right or wrong- we'll all know by the end of the year. But I'm glad I listened to the sceptics on talk radio way back when and cashed out my 401K and bought gold bullion when the spot price was selling in the $400s.

zargof

Yeah I read the article, and the amount of t-bills is large, but...

"In the first nine months of the fiscal year, the deficit soared to 71.2 billion pounds from 37 billion pounds a year earlier. The gap will reach 77.6 billion pounds by the end of the year and peak at 118 billion pounds, or 8 percent of gross domestic product, in fiscal 2010, the Treasury forecasts."

And...

"With 1.8 trillion pounds of liabilities at the end of 2007, Royal Bank of Scotland could lift debt to almost 170 percent of GDP when the Edinburgh-based lender is taken onto the Treasury books."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...kZQpo&refer=uk

The point I'm trying to make is that yes the US is in trouble, but the UK is in a deeper hole, and if you don't believe me, then how about the IMF:

"The International Monetary Fund has today issued a report on a variety of Western governments, Western economies and how they are coping with the ongoing economic difficulties. Yet again the UK has been mentioned as the weakest economy in the developed world with forecasts indicating a 2.8% reduction in the UK economy this year. This is the largest one-year fall since 1946 and a rate which is faster than any other industrialised country in the world."

http://www.financialadvice.co.uk/new...8-in-2009.html


Hmm... interesting, rather negative though. I can see there are definitely some good points there, but the main threat to the dollar IMO is that it is no longer the reserve currency, and I just can't see that happening in the near future (i.e. the next five years)

vegas

1.37890 looks like its on the way down again. Already below 52 week low. How far will it fall this time?

DeanUK2US

1.38150

First rise!

Bob

woot bloody woot...just got a couple of squid I need transfering, couldn't have gotten the money a few months ago could I....bloody governments lol

SpoogleDrummer

I can't be the only one paying UK debts off can I? The lower the pound in relation to the dollar the better for me Though my mom is visiting this summer so I guess it would be nice if the exchange rate was better during her stay so it'd be nice and cheap for her.