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US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Old Mar 29th 2020, 4:59 pm
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Default US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

There isn't a straight-up thread in the US forum discussing the corona-virus disease, so, given that I couldn't match this thought to another thread, and that it is specific to the US, here goes.

The data on the worldometer.com for the US shows that at the start of March there were 100 known cases of Covid-19 in the US, approximately 9 days later there were 1,000 cases, and 9 days after that there were 10,000 cases, and by yesterday (another 9 days) there were 100,000 cases, so a log graph of the number of infections has been an almost perfect straight line. .... by April 7 there will be 1 million cases, and by April 16 +/- there will be 10 million cases, if the social distancing and lock-down restrictions don't have much/ any impact.

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Old Mar 29th 2020, 5:09 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

The US "lock-downs" seem to be shot full of holes, with so many exceptions as to be more meaningless, compared to for example Spain and Italy. .... We are getting a state-wide lock down in NC from Monday at 5pm, but IMO it is too little, too late, with too many exceptions, and not a hope in hell of being enforced.
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 5:21 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

One thing that’s emerging in the US, as in the U.K., is resentment from rural areas at “city folk” driving out to second homes and vacation rentals in order to WFH and ride out the pandemic in the healthful country air. It seems clear that by the time the country folk became aware of this danger, it was a bit too late to close the barn door.
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 5:28 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
One thing that’s emerging in the US, as in the U.K., is resentment from rural areas at “city folk” driving out to second homes and vacation rentals in order to WFH and ride out the pandemic in the healthful country air. It seems clear that by the time the country folk became aware of this danger, it was a bit too late to close the barn door.
A good point, but I am not sure how you would stop people moving to their vacation home, short of beseiging major cities.

I suspect that there are already people who live in NYC who have some to "visit" their parents, who have retired anywhere between NC and Florida. ... And no doubt some will have brought the disease with them.

Last edited by Pulaski; Mar 29th 2020 at 5:31 pm.
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 5:41 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
A good point, but I am not sure how you would stop people moving to their vacation home, short of beseiging major cities.

I suspect that there are already people who live in NYC who have some to "visit" their parents, who have retired anywhere between NC and Florida. ... And no doubt some will have brought the disease with them.
Exactly. In Britain and the US it’s legal to own more than one home. Places are very happy to get the business and the property taxes. Owners are free to spend time in their different homes, and in fact, many people buy a second home with the intention of making it their primary home when they retire, or if they feel able to run their business remotely etc.
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 6:04 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

In California, while we do not have full lockdown, we have had numerous public messages regarding social distancing. Many people took this seriously, but there were 2 groups who did not - and the consequence of that has been the complete shutting down of parks, open spaces and beaches.

While many people practised social distancing and took their exercise in 1's and 2's, family groups and youth groups distinctly ignored this advice. The last time I was allowed to walk on the beach there were groups of families/youths walking along together, meeting other family/youth groups, shaking hands, hugging and mingling while chatting. Walking along a hiking trail the same thing happened. This was noticed by authorities and everything closed down. So those folks who practised social distancing and walked in 1's and 2's, keeping a good distance from other people have been punished because of these particular groups.

Even now, while doing a solitary walk on a quiet road in my area, you still come across groups consisting of a kids, parents, grandparents, neighbors, friends, taking over the path/sidewalk and not practising social distancing at all. If you shout 'coming through' they still expect YOU to move off the path to make way for all of them.

In Germany where the death rate is low, and the testing/tracking system is high, exercise can still be carried on outside as long as is is done in no more than a group of 2. Of course, the Germans follow this rule.

What don't some Americans understand about 'social distancing' and how this is going to slow down the spread of the disease? Me, me, me, generation again?
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 6:39 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

I am currently in Spain in a small village close to the coast. We were far removed from the pandemic until Madrid went on lock down. A huge number of Madridolians went to their second homes in our area. As soon as it was realized what was happening our area went on lock down too with 6 hours warning and everyone from Madrid was told to go into isolation. But it was too late. If this is to stop then freedom of movement has to stop too.
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Old Mar 29th 2020, 6:57 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

I am not normally super excited to be in Canada generally, but I am so glad I am during this. Canada is doing a much better job overall, and in some provinces like mine we are starting to show the restrictions that started 3 weeks ago are starting to work, we did have 92 new cases yesterday which is the largest 24 hour jump so far, but the transmission rate is dropping, has gone from 24% to 12% and as of yesterday was 10% so that is encouraging, but we are being told to likely expect restrictions to continue for the foreseeable future, anywhere from 1-3 months has been thrown around based on current projections.

I would have thought the US would have wised up by now, but its still too patchwork, every state needs to be locked down for them to really work, if done correctly, lock downs do seem to work even if not hardcore, wouldn't call what we have in BC hardcore, but its enough to keep the curve down as they say.


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Old Mar 29th 2020, 8:29 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Originally Posted by SanDiegogirl View Post
What don't some Americans understand about 'social distancing' and how this is going to slow down the spread of the disease? Me, me, me, generation again?
The lack of clear consistent federal rules isn't helping. When you've got different states (and citiies/towns) imposing different rules, I suspect compliance is reduced in general.

A good test of whether these shelter-in-place rules have an effect is the San Francisco area. Our "lockdown" started almost two weeks ago and was the first in the country. Clearly the curve flattening is going to be nowhere near as effective as in China (and South Korea, which did far higher per-capita testing), but it will be a good barometer as to effectiveness.
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Old Mar 30th 2020, 9:04 am
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

We are now exactly 1 week into our countrywide lockdown in the UK and at the press briefing yesterday were told it could last 3 to 6 months. It’s mostly being obeyed with some news worthy exceptions such as this weekend police breaking up a climbing group from Bristol who had gone to Wales. In places like the Peak District police have been using drones, and showing footage on the news, of people driving to beauty spots to go for their 1 form of exercise a day. (They are stopping this).

We Skype much more often with our daughter in LA where they are are on lockdown. She is by herself now, her partner usually spends weekends with her, and all her out of house activities such as the orchestra group she plays in, the volley ball team etc has stopped. Fortunately she works in the tech industry and was able to bring her works PC and equipment home and continues to work from home. She walks in the neighborhood every day and her quirky local cafe is still open for takeout. Like us she is so pleased to be living in a house with garden, her partner lives in an apartment at the top of a high-rise building. He works for Apple and is also working from home now.

My brother lives in Queensland Australia who actually went ahead with local elections last week, 1 million people going to the polls or being fined. He and his wife will avoid the fine as they are still on mandatory 14 day isolation having returned from Singapore the day before Singapore closed its borders to visitors. He plans to go back to work once his isolation is over as he is the manager of a coal mine and mining is considered an essential industry.

My wife had eye surgery last year and is still getting treatment to improve her vision post surgery. At the end of February her surgeon tried her on some new drops after he’d come back from a conference in the USA and her next appointment was due this week. She had a call saying it was canceled and next day while we were walking on the moors her surgeon called from the hospital, conducted her appointment over the phone and since the new eye drops are working so well said he would send a letter to her doctor telling her to write a repeat prescription. Way to go NHS! We live on the edge of the N York’s moors National Park and can walk there from our house, hardly anyone about these days since the driving restrictions have been in place.

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Old Mar 30th 2020, 1:33 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

In Georgia, other than a noticeable drop in the number of people 'out and about' there is little to show that anything is happening beyond the suspension of dine in restaurants. All of them are still doing take out service though.

My employer, as a healthcare facility, has also suspended visitors and non-essential personal. Unfortunately that doesn't include the CFO

I am receiving a package from New Jersey through USPS today, which will be thoroughly sanitized before entering the house.
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Old Mar 30th 2020, 3:06 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Here in Austin we're seeing some pretty good compliance with the shelter in place order, although there's still WAY too many people who think that it's OK to congregate on a trail with everyone else, or that it doesn't count if you have five of your neighbors over for a BBQ because they all live on the same street.

I'm hoping that we get through this relatively unscathed on account of the lower population density and the lack of public transport vs the UK, but I'm pretty jealous of our more rural friends at this point - this would be a great time to hole up in a ranch on some acreage.
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Old Mar 30th 2020, 6:11 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

This article from the Washington Post makes me despair:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...5b5_story.html

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Old Mar 30th 2020, 6:23 pm
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
One thing that’s emerging in the US, as in the U.K., is resentment from rural areas at “city folk” driving out to second homes and vacation rentals in order to WFH and ride out the pandemic in the healthful country air. It seems clear that by the time the country folk became aware of this danger, it was a bit too late to close the barn door.

That is certainly the case here. I live on a small island where about half of the properties are second homes. Our state has a 'stay at home' order and the locals here on the island have assumed that means 'stay in your main home' whereas the second-home lot have interpreted it to mean 'stay in any of your homes'. I personally don't have an issue with the second-home owners coming to their part-time homes and getting away from the cities. There has been resentment from the full-timers that the part-timers are 'taking up all the resources from the full-timers" (aka 'buying all the toilet paper from the small convenience store') but that's ridiculous. It's the same number of people as any summer weekend. Even if all the part-timers come here to ride out the storm, there is still enough space here for all to keep our distance. Even if every dwelling was occupied, we are by no means overcrowded.

The locals have been wanting to cut us off completely. Except when they want to go across to the mainland for Walmart or McDonalds.
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Old Mar 31st 2020, 12:45 am
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Default Re: US Coronavirus and US-style lockdowns

Per-State projections with numbers and dates for wave peaks here:
COVID-19

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