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nun Jan 23rd 2015 10:51 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543565)
I appreciate the help but I'm not loving these assumptions that:
1) I will be taxed in the UK as income, when in fact I may well just drip the money in, during years of low income.

If you take a number of small early withdrawals, rather than cashing the entire 401k in, and time them to coincide with low UK income years you can manage your the tax you pay. But you will still pay the 10% penalty and the money will still be taxed in the UK as income......unless you use the ROTH strategy I suggested.


2) That by not having money invested that I'm losing out on growth.
Well that's a general investing and AA comment. How you are invested across retirement and non-retirement accounts is entirely up to the investor and their individual circumstances.


The economy is like the coyote in the roadrunner cartoons, it's only going to fall when it looks down and we realize it. We keep printing money like an addict, to stop us from looking down, but you can't fight gravity.

We've had the biggest wealth transfer of human history. The fed has printed $16,000BN of money and it's inflated assets of only the very rich. If you think somehow this is just going to work out, then you've great knowledge but a very poor imagination. I'm not saying the world is going to shit, but I am saying the absolute assumption on here of pleasantly steady growth is puzzling.
I know nothing. I keep costs to a minimum and have an AA appropriate for my circumstances. I've been through many market cycles and growth is seldom steady, which is why it's important not to market time. If you feel that QE has inflated the market to a peak and you know that now is the right time to be in cash, then be in cash. I don't know enough to make that call. In fact being smart enough to realize that I'm too dumb to make that call sums up my investing philosophy pretty well.

nun Jan 23rd 2015 11:03 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543585)
So you are saying the period of time where thousands of billions of dollars being printed, while interest rates have kept low has somehow miraculously also had the effect of increasing your mutual funds, how strange.

And that seemingly inevitably has means the next 5 years should be roughly the same?

I didn't say I was a talented investor, I said that I've outperformed the majority of professionally run funds. I've been making more risky investments, and I've been lucky. That doesn't make me more talented, but it's made me more involved and agile. Again, I prefer my chances of acting in my own self interest than their chance of acting in mine.

I think this is the essence of DIY investing. However, the approaches of the DIY investors can be radically different. Myself and Hotscot look to minimize expenses and track the markets and so will go up and down with them. So it's important to be diversified so a crash in one sector isn't catastrophic. You have to take a holistic approach to finances.....with your 401k think about being tax efficient as well as investing wisely. You should be saving into a ROTH as well as saving into regular accounts too. If you are worried about a crash look at a CD ladder or I-bonds. Next think about buying a house. Also if you have any UK investments like ISAs or Investment Funds make sure you understand their US tax consequences. Finally have you looked into paying Class 2 voluntary National Insurance, that's the best investment I ever made.

Michael Jan 23rd 2015 11:04 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 
When you leave your job, you can rollover a 401K to a traditional IRA penalty and tax free. The IRA could be at a brokerage, a bank, a mutual fund company, or any financial institution and invest in whatever they offer (a few things may be excluded from IRA investments).

TD Ameritrade

Vanguard

Wells Fargo

Hotscot Jan 23rd 2015 11:24 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543585)
So you are saying the period of time where thousands of billions of dollars being printed, while interest rates have kept low has somehow miraculously also had the effect of increasing your mutual funds, how strange.

And that seemingly inevitably has means the next 5 years should be roughly the same?

Yes. It's not strange if you know investing. Go to any decent broker site, eg Vanguard and check the performance indicators for the past 5 years.

And no, past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, however over time, decades for example, while short term volatility can gut the impatient, the market generally goes up.

As indicated, the data is freely, and easily, available at any broker site.

dunroving Jan 24th 2015 9:43 am

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543380)
I'm young and entrepreneurial , from the UK and working in the USA -and I want my "pension" to not be a large lump sum in a bank paying an annuity, but a business I own, or other assets I'm in control of.

I also don't think the stock market will perform particularly well for the next 5 years, something about printing trillions and China stalling makes me a little uncertain.

But I'm paying close to 40% income tax ( single, child free, nice paying job) and my employer has a decent 401K matching policy.

Let's say I stay and work in the US for 5 years, then leave and want to extract my 401K money, pay the 10% early withdrawal fee, but then do what I wish with it by taking it as cash. I'd plan on doing this when I am in the UK.

I want to ask.
1) Assuming the income when I "cash in" is US income, but I am then based in the UK, will I pay UK income tax on this amount?
2) If I think the US stock market will do badly, is there a way to get a 401K which doesn't invest in the market but acts as a bank account paying a pathetic interest rate?
3) Any general advice or thoughts to help?
Thanks.

Not sure if I saw anyone point this out, but frankly you would have to be pretty foolish not to take this. That is an immediate doubling of your investment. :nod:

dunroving Jan 24th 2015 9:51 am

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543525)
What do you mean by " once you cash in the 401k you have also lost years and years of tax free growths" what is this tax free growth you speak of? Are you saying I will lose the growth I may have gained from when holding the money in a 401k or are you again assuming that I can make less money than a bunch of coked up bankers ( I know how hopeless most hedge fund traders are since I hang out with them ) who've Ive outperformed for the last 5 years myself many times over ?


Originally Posted by Newbie1001 (Post 11543585)
So you are saying the period of time where thousands of billions of dollars being printed, while interest rates have kept low has somehow miraculously also had the effect of increasing your mutual funds, how strange.

And that seemingly inevitably has means the next 5 years should be roughly the same?

I didn't say I was a talented investor, I said that I've outperformed the majority of professionally run funds. I've been making more risky investments, and I've been lucky. That doesn't make me more talented, but it's made me more involved and agile. Again, I prefer my chances of acting in my own self interest than their chance of acting in mine.

No, I'd say it means you have been lucky. Luck is no more inevitable than the assumption that S&S will continue to rise, which you so roundly criticised.

It's your money, but I'd listen to the advice you are being given, which is coming from people who aren't coked up and don't rely on luck for their long-term financial planning.

Michael Jan 24th 2015 4:42 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by dunroving (Post 11543945)
No, I'd say it means you have been lucky. Luck is no more inevitable than the assumption that S&S will continue to rise, which you so roundly criticised.

He isn't lucky but probably about average.

Hedge Funds Trail Stocks for Fifth Year With 7.4% Return - Bloomberg

George Soros stated that hedge funds can no longer beat the market with such high fees and investors unwilling to leverage their investment to the hilt. However the big secret is that even when investors were leveraging their investments to the hilt, hedge funds still didn't beat the market and after taxes, likely underperformed the market.

The 20-Year Performance Of Hedge Funds And The S&P 500 Are Almost Identical

dunroving Jan 24th 2015 4:50 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by Michael (Post 11544150)
He isn't lucky but probably about average.

Hedge Funds Trail Stocks for Fifth Year With 7.4% Return - Bloomberg

George Soros stated that hedge funds can no longer beat the market with such high fees and investors unwilling to leverage their investment to the hilt. However the big secret is that even when investors were leveraging their investments to the hilt, hedge funds still didn't beat the market and after taxes, likely underperformed the market.

The 20-Year Performance Of Hedge Funds And The S&P 500 Are Almost Identical

I was going on his statement that he'd outperformed them "many times over" by making risky investments. I didn't think that reflected an average approach to investments.

nun Jan 24th 2015 5:31 pm

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by dunroving (Post 11544158)
I was going on his statement that he'd outperformed them "many times over" by making risky investments. I didn't think that reflected an average approach to investments.

The only return you need to make is the one the meets your financial goals with a level of acceptable risk.

Michael Jan 26th 2015 12:39 am

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 

Originally Posted by dunroving (Post 11544158)
I was going on his statement that he'd outperformed them "many times over" by making risky investments. I didn't think that reflected an average approach to investments.

The market has "many times over" outperformed hedge funds during the past 5 years so I stand by my statement. I don't understand why there is still a hedge fund industry anymore except possibly that the rich have too much money and never educated themselves to understand the basics of investing.

Barclay Hedge Fund Index | BarclayHedge, Ltd.

Hedge Fund vs S&P500 Performance | The Big Picture

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...505141_big.gif

nun Jan 26th 2015 1:10 am

Re: O1 401K - investing when you think the market won't do well
 
Statistics and comparisons can be made to tell almost any story you want. However, a definite fact is that passive index fund investing has lower expenses that an active fund, stock picker, market timing approach. Place you bets however you want


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