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Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Old Dec 3rd 2013, 4:20 am
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Default Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

I'm curious to get the take from the likes of Dakota, Leslie, and other political wonks on this site who are Democratic leaning.

2 months ago, I was willing to bet good money that the Dems would win the 2016 presidential election. The government shutdown, the endless 'Benghazi' nonsense, the Tea Party loons, the apparent prominence of Ted Cruz and other nuts as possible future nominations, the complete lack of leadership, all led me to think the Repubs were toast, even at this early stage.

However, the recent events surrounding the ACA ('Obamacare'), combined with Chris Christie's successes, do have me slightly worried - especially if Hillary does NOT choose to run. Chris Christie vs Joe Biden, in the aftermath of a widespread ACA struggle, could spell trouble.

Let me be clear - I wholeheartedly support ACA, and would be devastated if the Dems did not get re-elected. I think the 'website' issues are temporary and will be history shortly, but the 'policy cancellations' angle of ACA has me concerned from a political perspective - I foresee an endless supply of red meat for the repubs over the next two or three years.

Hopefully the repubs will focus on this to the exclusion of everything else, and get pounded.

Thoughts?
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 11:04 am
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

With the ever increasing immigrant population, and the lack of will from the Republican controlled house to do anything on CIR, I don't think they have a chance in hell - even if they nominate another moderate.

That said, I don't see an obvious candidate for the Dems in Hilary doesn't't run - Biden would just be more of the same, and that same hasn't exactly been great.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 1:16 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Cards on the table I'm a GOP guy (though on the moderate Christie/McCain side of things than a Cruz/Tea Party guy, I would have voted David Duhurst in the Primary if I was eligible), I think it will be the same result after 2016 as we do at the moment, I think it will be a Democratic President and Senate with a Republican House. so a lot of people banging there heads against a brick wall again. I'm more interested in developments in my adopted own home state, Demographic change in the state due to immigration from Mexico, migration from the likes of California and other left leaning states plus a more urbanized populous could lead to a power shift here in a few years, with the first signs of that being Wendy Davis's well funded run for governor (I hope she gets thumped).
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 1:31 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by Steerpike
Let me be clear - I wholeheartedly support ACA ...
The idea is a good one, but the implementation leaves a lot to be desired.

Being left-of-centre (though I'm more a centre-left libertarian) is bloody confusing out here. The current president is clearly a centre-right authoritarian who would probably win an election running as a Tory in the UK.

I quite like the idea of Hillary in 2016, if she would run things the way Bill did. The thought of any of the current crop of GOP nutcases winning isn't great because they'd just end up sending us backwards another fifty years and if I'd wanted to live in a theocracy, I'd have moved to Iran, not the USA.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 1:33 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by civilservant
With the ever increasing immigrant population, and the lack of will from the Republican controlled house to do anything on CIR, I don't think they have a chance in hell .....
Never say never, the political pendulum swings back and forth for all manner of unpredictable reasons. Tony Blair appeared to have altered the political landscape in the UK with dramatic increases in public employees that on paper made it difficult for the Conservatives to rebound.

The public's political memory is notoriously short, and some unforeseen turning of events, coupled with an that motivates one side to "get the vote out", when the other is indifferent, can have unpredictable results. For starters, it is unlikely that the overwhelming support of the black electorate in supporting Barak Obama will be held onto by the next Democrat presidential nominee. Of course I do not mean that any meaningful percentage will switch sides, but a percentage, perhaps a small one, won't be as motivated to go and vote. A small decline in the black turnout, taken with other factors could change the outcome in several states, such as NC, VA, PA, and MI.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 2:11 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Chris Christie will have a hard time getting the Republican nomination. I don't think he's likely to allow himself to be turned to the far right as Romney had to do to get nominated.
Originally Posted by Steerpike
However, the recent events surrounding the ACA ('Obamacare'), combined with Chris Christie's successes, do have me slightly worried - especially if Hillary does NOT choose to run. Chris Christie vs Joe Biden, in the aftermath of a widespread ACA struggle, could spell trouble.
I agree.
Originally Posted by Pulaski
Never say never, the political pendulum swings back and forth for all manner of unpredictable reasons.

The public's political memory is notoriously short, and some unforeseen turning of events, coupled with an that motivates one side to "get the vote out", when the other is indifferent, can have unpredictable results.
Regards, JEff
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 2:25 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by jeffreyhy
Chris Christie will have a hard time getting the Republican nomination. I don't think he's likely to allow himself to be turned to the far right as Romney had to do to get nominated.
+1

Although the rollout of ACA was a disaster, I suspect that will be the 'straw that broke the GOP's back'. By the time 2016 rolls around, I suspect Americans will like ACA by at least 65% and the GOP will have egg on their face. There are many people that forget things within a month (ex. the shutdown) but when something helps people, relatives, or friends that could have bankrupted them without ACA, they will remember that and they will also remember how horrible it was portrayed by the GOP.

Also when people that need Medicaid realize that the GOP sh*t on them in about 25 states, they will go to the polls in droves (normally very few poor vote). From a governor standpoint, the GOP already lost Virginia and I can't see the republicans holding Florida, Maine, Vermont, and possibly even Wisconsin, Indiana, and Kansas due to the opt out of Medicaid. When people realize that they will be paying higher state taxes than necessary due to the opt out of Medicaid and the northern states can reduce taxes, they'll be pissed at those northern carpetbaggers raping the south.

Just like when the GOP was tried to stop people from voting, that backfired and people waited in line for hours. In 2016, the very poor will likely wait in line for hours and during any race to get ride of their governor. The GOP may have opened Pandora's box since I doubt the poor were considered when they gerrymandered the districts since that was not in the risk analysis.

Last edited by Michael; Dec 3rd 2013 at 2:47 pm.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 2:27 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Happily for the Dems, the Obamacare website issues will ancient history by the time the 2014 mid-terms roll around, let alone the next Presidential election.

Sadly for the Dems, so will be the GOP's shutdown and debt-ceiling hostage taking antics.

Unless the GOP is stupid enough to have another go when the debt ceiling comes up again in the New Year, and they probably are.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 2:35 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by Steerpike
I'm curious to get the take from the likes of Dakota, Leslie, and other political wonks on this site who are Democratic leaning.

2 months ago, I was willing to bet good money that the Dems would win the 2016 presidential election. The government shutdown, the endless 'Benghazi' nonsense
'nonsense'? You mean, the alleged cover up when a US Ambassador was murdered?
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 2:50 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by hungryhorace
'nonsense'? You mean, the alleged cover up when a US Ambassador was murdered?
+1

That is only for the far right and they'll keep milking that forever but most Americans could care less. But the GOP ego gets boosted everything someone says Benghazi since is sounds like Bonsai.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 3:06 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

The 2016 presidential elections will be won or lost based largely upon the economy and on the charisma of the contenders. At this point, I wouldn't be inclined to predict who will win.

Americans tend to dislike the Congress as a whole, but do like their individual representative. Issues such as Benghazi won't affect most of those individual elections, either way.

I don't see ACA impacting the outcome of the 2016 elections. It's a talking point among partisan voters, but Obama obviously isn't running for a third term. The GOP made a mistake labeling it as "Obamacare"; they have made him own it, which helps to protect his successors from most of any blowback.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 3:06 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by Steerpike
I'm curious to get the take from the likes of Dakota, Leslie, and other political wonks on this site who are Democratic leaning.

2 months ago, I was willing to bet good money that the Dems would win the 2016 presidential election. The government shutdown, the endless 'Benghazi' nonsense, the Tea Party loons, the apparent prominence of Ted Cruz and other nuts as possible future nominations, the complete lack of leadership, all led me to think the Repubs were toast, even at this early stage.

However, the recent events surrounding the ACA ('Obamacare'), combined with Chris Christie's successes, do have me slightly worried - especially if Hillary does NOT choose to run. Chris Christie vs Joe Biden, in the aftermath of a widespread ACA struggle, could spell trouble.

Let me be clear - I wholeheartedly support ACA, and would be devastated if the Dems did not get re-elected. I think the 'website' issues are temporary and will be history shortly, but the 'policy cancellations' angle of ACA has me concerned from a political perspective - I foresee an endless supply of red meat for the repubs over the next two or three years.

Hopefully the repubs will focus on this to the exclusion of everything else, and get pounded.

Thoughts?
The ACA rollout debacle won't necessarily sway an election --- it should be "fixed" by then anyway.

Mark my words ....

Hispanics, hispanics, hispanics.

If the GOP can sway a significant amount of the Hispanic vote then they've got it in the bag. The country is undergoing Democratic fatigue and it's hard to get 3 terms in a row for either party.

The Dems could definitely lose but it's not going to be simply because of what happens with the ACA.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 3:23 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by hungryhorace
'nonsense'? You mean, the alleged cover up when a US Ambassador was murdered?
Oh horse shit.
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 3:25 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

The problem as I see it is that the electorate are so poorly informed and apathetic, it doesn't matter what actually happens to the ACA or any other issue. The vote is driven my extremists and the fanatics that believe in them (both sides).
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Old Dec 3rd 2013, 3:55 pm
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Default Re: Just how much trouble are the Democrats in?

Originally Posted by Leslie
The ACA rollout debacle won't necessarily sway an election --- it should be "fixed" by then anyway.

Mark my words ....

Hispanics, hispanics, hispanics.

If the GOP can sway a significant amount of the Hispanic vote then they've got it in the bag. The country is undergoing Democratic fatigue and it's hard to get 3 terms in a row for either party.

The Dems could definitely lose but it's not going to be simply because of what happens with the ACA.
To clarify, I'm not concerned by the ACA rollout debacle (the website issues, etc) but the more subtle issue of existing policies being cancelled. As I understand it, the policies being cancelled at this moment are private, individual policies, which only affect that small slice of the population that does not have group health care and does not qualify for any 'program' (Medicare, Medicaid, etc). I'm not sure what the demographic for this 'slice' is, but I assume self-employed, unemployed, and/or, early retirees. It's clear these policies were sub-standard, and never had any business being offered for sale in the first place (and would probably fail to deliver if ever actually 'used'), but it is feasible that they are lower cost than the replacement (since they don't insure much!), and this could cause sticker shock. So that voting block could be turned against ACA and thus the dems. Now I hear that 'group' policies will be 'next' in terms of getting cancelled. I'm hoping this is just a republican talking point, because I can't imagine group healthcare being overly affected by ACA, but if for some reason there is great upheaval in the group healthcare market, that will affect the majority of the country.

Even today, the combination of people who approve of ACA, together with the people who don't think ACA goes far enough, exceeds 50% so that suggests the dems could be ok.

On the hispanic issue, the failure of the republicans to pursue their own Rubio-led proposals must surely blow up in their faces?
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