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Exchange Rate going Down?

Exchange Rate going Down?

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Old Feb 5th 2015, 5:01 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by FatFrank
My condolences for your loss Yorkie. One thing that does trouble me living here in the US is my parents aging back in the UK Anyway, I would like to wait for 1.7 before I wire money over, but looking at the historical rates it may be a quicker return to 1.6+

Historical Exchange Rates | OANDA
But remember at $1.50 it could easily go either way, or stay where it is ..... $1.50-$1.60 is right in the middle of the exchange rate fluctuations over the past 30 years. IMO it is as likely to go $1.40 as it is to go to $1.60, and furthermore is as likely to go to $1.30 as it is to $1.70.

My recommendation would be to exchange at least 20%-25% now, and then see what happens over the next six months or so. If the rate has moved favourably then exchange the same amount again, but if the rate has moved against you you might want to wait longer. ..... Keep on monitoring the rate and exchanging money when the rate is favourable, or you need the money. This strategy will even out the bumps, and transferring at least some of it now will seem like a bargain if the rate drops to $1.40.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 5:23 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Pulaski
But remember at $1.50 it could easily go either way, or stay where it is ..... $1.50-$1.60 is right in the middle of the exchange rate fluctuations over the past 30 years. IMO it is as likely to go $1.40 as it is to go to $1.60, and furthermore is as likely to go to $1.30 as it is to $1.70.

My recommendation would be to exchange at least 20%-25% now, and then see what happens over the next six months or so. If the rate has moved favourably then exchange the same amount again, but if the rate has moved against you you might want to wait longer. ..... Keep on monitoring the rate and exchanging money when the rate is favourable, or you need the money. This strategy will even out the bumps, and transferring at least some of it now will seem like a bargain if the rate drops to $1.40.
+1

Or even longer ... dollar cost averaging is the only way to go for people with a seriously big chunk of change, IMO. All other ways lead to madness, but especially trying to guess the market.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 5:31 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by dunroving
+1

Or even longer ... dollar cost averaging is the only way to go for people with a seriously big chunk of change, IMO. All other ways lead to madness, but especially trying to guess the market.
With you there.
Market timing is gambling.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 5:45 pm
  #34  
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by dunroving
+1

Or even longer ... dollar cost averaging is the only way to go for people with a seriously big chunk of change, IMO. All other ways lead to madness, but especially trying to guess the market.
Totally agree....not just on transferring money, but also on a lot of investments. The largest decision is deciding on your timeframe for transferring the money - size and frequency of transfers then follow easily, and can largely be determined by costs of transfer (if any) and any rate tiers applied. The tricky thing is deciding the timeframe if the money isn't needed for a specific reason, or by a specific time.

The money I've inherited from my Mam hasn't figured in our investment strategy at all until now - possibly a mistake, in hindsight, although basing an investment plan on a possible future inheritance is also not really wise (and would have left a slightly icky taste...). It has left us at something of an intial loss as to how to handle it. I have helped her with her finances over the 17 years since Dad died, but I've always looked at it from her point of view, and never really considered what I would do once it came to me!
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 5:48 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by FatFrank
My condolences for your loss Yorkie. One thing that does trouble me living here in the US is my parents aging back in the UK
Thanks Frank (I assume that is preferred to the alternative contraction!). Ageing parents is a tough one, and one that many on here have had to deal with over the years. Last year seems to have been a particularly bad year for the "short notice flights" for folk on here, although my view may have been skewed by my own experience.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 6:38 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

A piece of advice given to me by the guy who was my currency broker when I first moved over was "don't be greedy".

Very early on I ignored that advice and decided to wait as the rate went up to get a few more dollars. It suddenly dropped to below what it was on the day I first thought about the exchange and I lost out. Learned my lesson.

I do think in some ways for those of us transferring a monthly pension(s) Travelwise has changed the game a little. As they give the mid rate less a 0.5% fee on any size transactions. While most others have a fairly high minimum amount and the rate changes as the amount increases. In the past when the rate was good, I could get above $1.60, I used forward contracts which World First accept for up to 12 months in advance. Below that I would exchange on the day I needed to. Either way with WF above £10k was an amount for a reasonable trade off on the rate. My last forward contract is payable Monday at $1.667. Now I think if it is above $1.60 I'll stick to forward contracts with WF, and below will transfer monthly using Travelwise. Hopefully that will flatten out the poor rates and give me a chance to gain a little on the good rates.

But as I've said before for most of us spending the time messing around to get an extra cent or two here and there makes a small different to the sums we receive. Where it is worthwhile are on the one off large transfers such as house sales, inheritances or investment payouts.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 6:44 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Pulaski
But remember at $1.50 it could easily go either way, or stay where it is ..... $1.50-$1.60 is right in the middle of the exchange rate fluctuations over the past 30 years. IMO it is as likely to go $1.40 as it is to go to $1.60, and furthermore is as likely to go to $1.30 as it is to $1.70.
Oh dear, good point, I hadn't really considered that it might actually go the other way! Decisions decisions. If/when the house sale goes through I will see where it is...
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 6:52 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by lansbury
A piece of advice given to me by the guy who was my currency broker when I first moved over was "don't be greedy".
Good advice.

It's similar to the gas prices. Is your tank empty? Yes, then you need to fill up or you run out of gas. Most cars have something like a 15-20 gal tank. The price may go down a cent tomorrow at which point your 15-20 cent saving can't even buy you half a postage stamp.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 7:00 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by sir_eccles
Good advice.

It's similar to the gas prices. Is your tank empty? Yes, then you need to fill up or you run out of gas. Most cars have something like a 15-20 gal tank. The price may go down a cent tomorrow at which point your 15-20 cent saving can't even buy you half a postage stamp.
As I was reading lansbury's post, I was already constructing a reply along the gastank analogy lines. You beat me to it! Great minds and all that.....
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 7:02 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by sir_eccles
....... your 15-20 cent saving can't even buy you half a postage stamp.
That's a variation on why I never drive out of my way for cheaper gas (I think twice in 12 years I have driven from home to the edge of town just to buy gas). Even driving a mile or two will cost as much in gas as you'll save by buying at 1-2c less/gal.

I keep an eye on the prices, and if I know I'll be passing the cheapest gas station later then that is where I will buy gas. If not I buy the cheapest gas that I will be passing. ..... Occasionally I buy a gallon or two if I know I will be passing a much cheaper gas station within a day or two.
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Old Feb 5th 2015, 7:24 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Pulaski
That's a variation on why I never drive out of my way for cheaper gas (I think twice in 12 years I have driven from home to the edge of town just to buy gas). Even driving a mile or two will cost as much in gas as you'll save by buying at 1-2c less/gal.

I keep an eye on the prices, and if I know I'll be passing the cheapest gas station later then that is where I will buy gas. If not I buy the cheapest gas that I will be passing. ..... Occasionally I buy a gallon or two if I know I will be passing a much cheaper gas station within a day or two.
Yeah, about the only exception is if you have accumulated gas points at the supermarket and have to use a particular brand to save 10c/gal, even then you're going to save a dollar maybe two.
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Old Feb 9th 2015, 12:00 am
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Lansbury, great info in your above posts, thank-you. Travelwise sounds like a great system, but I've never yet strayed from using my mainstream uk bank for moving £ over, and I'm a bit wary of trying an alternative, but feel I need to, as I have some larger amounts [to help buy a house in USA] to make.

Travelwise appears to have spammed a site called "trusted view" with rave self-reviews, and been called out on that. That is a concern.

I noticed Zoopla offers a currency service. Any feedback on theirs?

How often have you used Travelwise? Anybody else got any experience or observations?
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Old Feb 9th 2015, 5:21 am
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by expatrobe
Lansbury, great info in your above posts, thank-you. Travelwise sounds like a great system, but I've never yet strayed from using my mainstream uk bank for moving £ over, and I'm a bit wary of trying an alternative, but feel I need to, as I have some larger amounts [to help buy a house in USA] to make.

Travelwise appears to have spammed a site called "trusted view" with rave self-reviews, and been called out on that. That is a concern.

I noticed Zoopla offers a currency service. Any feedback on theirs?

How often have you used Travelwise? Anybody else got any experience or observations?
I have used Travelwise 3 times, small amounts just to try them out. It is a shame if they have been spamming as there is no need, as I found them OK. The disadvantage to Travelwise is they don't lock the rate when you book the transaction, they use the rate on the day they do the transfer. There is an option to tell them what difference is acceptable but you have to look for it.

If you have large amounts to move over my personal choice would be World First. If you go to their web site you can get their US office number and give them a call. Others here will recommend different brokers, but all will give you a better exchange rate than your bank, and much lower fees.

As an example I noticed NatWest now do international transfers online. I checked them against World First and Natwest rate was 1.5 cents less to the £ and charged a £22 to £30 fee. For large amounts I would really suggest you use a currency broker than a high street bank. I have no knowledge of Zoopla.

Last edited by lansbury; Feb 9th 2015 at 5:28 am.
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Old Feb 9th 2015, 7:52 am
  #44  
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Zoopla refer their clients to Rational FX, so best check them out online for yourself.

As Lansbury mentioned, for the larger amounts, it's probably better to use a currency broker as the savings can be thousands over a normal high street bank.

Please feel free to check my partner forum on BE where I post regularly on all currencies. It might give some useful information as to what might happen in these volatile markets.

Thanks

Originally Posted by expatrobe
Lansbury, great info in your above posts, thank-you. Travelwise sounds like a great system, but I've never yet strayed from using my mainstream uk bank for moving £ over, and I'm a bit wary of trying an alternative, but feel I need to, as I have some larger amounts [to help buy a house in USA] to make.

Travelwise appears to have spammed a site called "trusted view" with rave self-reviews, and been called out on that. That is a concern.

I noticed Zoopla offers a currency service. Any feedback on theirs?

How often have you used Travelwise? Anybody else got any experience or observations?
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Old Feb 10th 2015, 3:52 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

More excellent info and advice. Again thanks Lansbury, and George.

I wish I could contribute more than gushing gratitude at this point, but I arrived on a quest to find out more about this subject because it's about to become a top priority in my life for a while: and I landed in a good place!

World First seems like the way to go, but I will also check out the other recommendations, and continue to learn. I'm glad there's an alternative to the high street giants so the customer doesn't get taken for granted.

One thing I find hard to fathom is that if the system is based on hooking up with people who are sending money in the opposite direction, how can the companies guarantee the amounts balance out? Would not more money flow towards the weaker currency? But hey, if it works -- it works!
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