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Exchange Rate going Down?

Exchange Rate going Down?

Old Jan 22nd 2015, 9:42 pm
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Question Exchange Rate going Down?

Last Thursday the exchange rate was at a good $1.501 to the £ then on Saturday it went to 1.47 but it went back to 1.49 on Monday!

Now today it's gone back to 1.47..
I only hope it's not going to go further down, especially as I need to transfer funds!!
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Old Jan 22nd 2015, 9:51 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

News here in Canada reports the USD is getting stronger against several currencies. We are being battered with the Canadian dollar. Lost 3 cents in 3 days, down to 80 cents to the USD and likely to fall further. Joys of foreign currencies.
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Old Jan 22nd 2015, 11:32 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
News here in Canada reports the USD is getting stronger against several currencies. We are being battered with the Canadian dollar. Lost 3 cents in 3 days, down to 80 cents to the USD and likely to fall further. Joys of foreign currencies.
I just bought my round trip ticket from Ottawa to Heathrow, $850 US. (I live in the US but fly from Canada.) Flying from Ottawa used to be more expensive than from Boston or other US airports, but now seems to be cheaper, presumably because the fare is in Canadian dollars but the exchange rate is favorable to me.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 2:59 am
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by brit_usa2014 View Post
Last Thursday the exchange rate was at a good $1.501 to the £ then on Saturday it went to 1.47 but it went back to 1.49 on Monday!

Now today it's gone back to 1.47
I only hope it's not going to go further down, especially as I need to transfer funds!!
It's called "volatility". Every liquid market has it.

The general consensus appears to be that the dollar will continue to strengthen. My guess is that it will stop its run-up somewhere between $1.40/£1 and $1.30/£1, during the second half of 2015. ....... The last time I made a major $/£ rate prediction, last August IIRC, for further strengthening of the £, I was proved wrong within days when the £ started to slide and has fallen more than 20c.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 3:51 am
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by robin1234 View Post
I just bought my round trip ticket from Ottawa to Heathrow, $850 US. (I live in the US but fly from Canada.) Flying from Ottawa used to be more expensive than from Boston or other US airports, but now seems to be cheaper, presumably because the fare is in Canadian dollars but the exchange rate is favorable to me.
It's usually the other way around, Canadian's going into the US...lol

Depending on where one is going, from BC if close to the border, you can still save money flying from SEA or Bellingham, but if the CAD drops much more, Canadian's will likely slow down their travels outside of Canada as they have in the past.

Doesn't make sense for most to leave Canada if the dollar gets much below 70 cents.

I know the border town airports dried up the last time the CAD got into the 60-70 cent range, so I predict by fall airlines that rely heavily on Canadian's reduce service. (Allegiant namely.)
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 5:21 am
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

The Euro is causing the last few days volatility. Finally, after years of ignoring the obvious, the ECB is going to start QE. The Euro is dropping like a rock (a good thing), and weighting down the pound a little. Dollar has liftoff. I'm a bit surprised to see USD rise that much against CAD, however.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 1:31 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
It's usually the other way around, Canadian's going into the US...lol

Depending on where one is going, from BC if close to the border, you can still save money flying from SEA or Bellingham, but if the CAD drops much more, Canadian's will likely slow down their travels outside of Canada as they have in the past.

Doesn't make sense for most to leave Canada if the dollar gets much below 70 cents.

I know the border town airports dried up the last time the CAD got into the 60-70 cent range, so I predict by fall airlines that rely heavily on Canadian's reduce service. (Allegiant namely.)
We have that too... Small airports near the border that cater to Canadians. Plattsburgh, Ogdensburg and Saranac Lake to name just three of them. Allegiant flies to Florida from Plattburgh, and the other two basically fly into Boston. Flew from Ogdensburg to Boston recently, and all other passengers were from Canada.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 7:38 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
It's called "volatility". Every liquid market has it.

The general consensus appears to be that the dollar will continue to strengthen. My guess is that it will stop its run-up somewhere between $1.40/£1 and $1.30/£1, during the second half of 2015. ....... The last time I made a major $/£ rate prediction, last August IIRC, for further strengthening of the £, I was proved wrong within days when the £ started to slide and has fallen more than 20c.
I hope your previous level of accuracy in your currency predictions proves to be the case this time around as well. I have my last booked forward contract coming on Feb 6 at $1.67 to £1, then I can sit and wait it out to the last three months of the year. I assume the worth of our UK pensions at $1.40 and so far never traded as less than $1.53, certainly do not want to have to do an exchange below $1.40.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 10:37 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

It is now gone down to 1.45 to the £...
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 10:53 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Not sure what you are looking at. The spot rate at this minute is $1.4990
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 10:55 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Really? Looking at xe.com (after I log in) but before booking trade?

Maybe I am looking at it wrongly..
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 11:02 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

OK I follow, you are looking at the rate you would actually get for a given trade. Spot rate on XE right now is $1.4992 so anything less than $1.47 for a trade is a bad rate, and really I would expect to see the rate you were quoted around $1.475 plus.

Edit: Just logged into XE and look at a trade of £10K. They only quoted a rate of $1.4563. That is a terrible rate.

Last edited by lansbury; Jan 23rd 2015 at 11:07 pm.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 11:09 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
OK I follow, you are looking at the rate you would actually get for a given trade. Spot rate on XE right now is $1.4992 so anything less than $1.47 for a trade is a bad rate, and really I would expect to see the rate you were quoted around $1.475 plus.

Edit: Just logged into XE and look at a trade of £10K. They only quoted a rate of $1.4563. That is a terrible rate.
Yup, which is why I am worried, since I need to transfer funds by next week.. and with the rates going down I don't know if its worth the wait or not. Last week I transferred £10K funds and got a good $15,263 (exchange rate of $1.501) but now.....
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 11:13 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by lansbury View Post
Just logged into XE and look at a trade of £10K. They only quoted a rate of $1.4563. That is a terrible rate.
The Euro to the USD is now at $1.12. I suspect xe.com fears that the GBP will drop in sympathy and isn't currently willing to take the risk.
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Old Jan 23rd 2015, 11:13 pm
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Default Re: Exchange Rate going Down?

Originally Posted by brit_usa2014 View Post
Yup, which is why I am worried, since I need to transfer funds by next week.. and with the rates going down I don't know if its worth the wait or not. Last week I transferred £10K funds and got a good $15,263 (exchange rate of $1.501) but now.....
Transferwise right now on £10k less their fees to get their true rate, you would get $1.4843

Last edited by lansbury; Jan 23rd 2015 at 11:15 pm. Reason: added £
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