Originally Posted by clydegirl

Never mind that was Dennis, he's still here or the remnants of Dennis and it's still raining

Originally Posted by ImHere

He's all yours. Weve got Emily and her baby Bro Franklin following on.

Originally Posted by anotherlimey

Will Hurricane Franklin be threatning litigation against anyone calling it names?

Originally Posted by anotherlimey

I see the predicted track was updated; unfortunately for Cuba - and like you mentioned earlier - it's following Dennis' track.

Originally Posted by ImHere

Yeah, that seems to be where the current steering winds are pushing them. Of course this can all change.

Originally Posted by krizzy

Well people generally dont want to hear views they might not like.

I thinks its fascinating trying to predict something so primal and ostensibly so unpredictable. The sheer magnitude of the forces involved are nothing short of humbling and really do make you realise just how insignificant we are.

As you say, its very much a case of experience combined with knowledge. An old professional forecaster friend of mine used to tell me to make a forecast, take all the knowledge, known facts and figures, computer models...and then apply your intuition.

As I type I see that hurricane advisories have just been issued for the Lesser Antilles:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 121443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Originally Posted by ironporer

So nice to see the potential track covers basically anywhere from northern Brazil to South Carlolina. Glad to see they're actually getting it defined. I am sure those in New York and Argentina are happy.

Call me when it's a few hours from land and we'll get ready again.

Originally Posted by krizzy

They are just so scared of getting it wrong.....so they cover hundreds of miles to be safe.......

Originally Posted by ironporer

Yeah, I know...but I almost miss the old days before Weather Channel and CNN and the 24/7 weather track.

Originally Posted by krizzy

You have the feeling that they just wish bad weather onto FL......you see those jerks standing in the street telling everyone how windy it is......and all I hope to see is one of them lose a head to a bit of roof or something....that would make the weather a lot more interesting.....

Originally Posted by ImHere

Its a pity my friend nolonger chases storms .....he would of given you a link up to his van and radar.....you learn a lot that way.....I belonged to a weather forum for a long time....but lost the link when I did a reformat...along with a lot of charts......do you know of any good weather forums.......I thought it would be easy enough to find again...but It could of been a link from another site.....not so easy to find once lost.....

Originally Posted by ironporer

So nice to see the potential track covers basically anywhere from northern Brazil to South Carlolina. Glad to see they're actually getting it defined. I am sure those in New York and Argentina are happy.

Call me when it's a few hours from land and we'll get ready again.

Originally Posted by cindyabs

Or even less IP!! Back in 1989 Hugo was bearing right down here on Savannah, 30 min before the predicted landfall it veered and nailed Charleston instead with 140 mph winds.