That was Dennis...
Jul 12th 2005, 1:01 pm
#31
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
Anyway, back on topic...
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
Jul 12th 2005, 1:21 pm
#32
Re vera, potas bene.
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: Cape Cod MA..Davenport FL
Posts: 2,405
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=ImHere]Anyway, back on topic...
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
Until 3 days to landfall we can all be fooled.....but I posted the same thing on another forum after looking at the track and before seeing what the experts said.....I never followed Dennis in the middle..just birth and death....so I was not sure if the track was near enough the same.....this one looked more North to me to start with then Dennis..bring it nearer to FL...but looking at it now....I could of been wrong.......
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
Until 3 days to landfall we can all be fooled.....but I posted the same thing on another forum after looking at the track and before seeing what the experts said.....I never followed Dennis in the middle..just birth and death....so I was not sure if the track was near enough the same.....this one looked more North to me to start with then Dennis..bring it nearer to FL...but looking at it now....I could of been wrong.......
Jul 12th 2005, 1:25 pm
#33
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 30,102
Re: That was Dennis...
Originally Posted by Ray
Oh my!! The new gang of three is on the attack..
Now I am nervous.
But your right.. although not marked I dont know the history or ownership
of those pic.. so I will cease posting them in the future.
I will also ask Paul to ensure all previous ones are removed.
You have done the forum a great service, and I hope I have appeased your wrath by this action....
Now I am nervous.
But your right.. although not marked I dont know the history or ownership
of those pic.. so I will cease posting them in the future.
I will also ask Paul to ensure all previous ones are removed.
You have done the forum a great service, and I hope I have appeased your wrath by this action....
Jul 12th 2005, 1:28 pm
#34
roamin in the gloamin
Joined: Jan 2005
Location: Illinois
Posts: 1,400
Re: That was Dennis...
Never mind that was Dennis, he's still here or the remnants of Dennis and it's still raining 
Jul 12th 2005, 1:29 pm
#35
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=krizzy]
Aye, as we all know these things can be influenced at any time by other weather patterns and any forecast beyond 48 hours is pretty much 20% information 80% intuition. It has started slightly more Northerly than Dennis and at the moment the upper level winds are favourable for Emily to move NNW across upper Dom Rep into open water N of Cuba which would then take it on a track smack into S FLA. If the convergence zone North moves slighty south it will hold it down a bit and force it more across Cuba which will change its US target not to mention its strength. The big question at the moment isn't the exact track of the center but more on what its width and strength will be. Current forecast is 80kt (90mph) winds at 72 hours somewhere east of Dom Rep....
Beyond that....we shall have to wait and see.
Originally Posted by ImHere
Anyway, back on topic...
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
Until 3 days to landfall we can all be fooled.....but I posted the same thing on another forum after looking at the track and before seeing what the experts said.....I never followed Dennis in the middle..just birth and death....so I was not sure if the track was near enough the same.....this one looked more North to me to start with then Dennis..bring it nearer to FL...but looking at it now....I could of been wrong.......
NHC have now decided that Emily is most likely following almost exactly in Dennis' path, but just slight north of it.
Until 3 days to landfall we can all be fooled.....but I posted the same thing on another forum after looking at the track and before seeing what the experts said.....I never followed Dennis in the middle..just birth and death....so I was not sure if the track was near enough the same.....this one looked more North to me to start with then Dennis..bring it nearer to FL...but looking at it now....I could of been wrong.......
Beyond that....we shall have to wait and see.
Jul 12th 2005, 1:42 pm
#36
Re vera, potas bene.
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: Cape Cod MA..Davenport FL
Posts: 2,405
Re: That was Dennis...
Well its a beauiful day here on sunny warm Cape Cod.......I'm off to cut the weeds before the thunderstorms get here later..I would say grass...but we have very little of that....
Jul 12th 2005, 1:43 pm
#37
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Nov 2004
Location: the land of make believe
Posts: 10,528
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=ImHere]
Aye, as we all know these things can be influenced at any time by other weather patterns and any forecast beyond 48 hours is pretty much 20% information 80% intuition. It has started slightly more Northerly than Dennis and at the moment the upper level winds are favourable for Emily to move NNW across upper Dom Rep into open water N of Cuba which would then take it on a track smack into S FLA. If the convergence zone North moves slighty south it will hold it down a bit and force it more across Cuba which will change its US target not to mention its strength. The big question at the moment isn't the exact track of the center but more on what its width and strength will be. Current forecast is 80kt (90mph) winds at 72 hours somewhere east of Dom Rep....
Beyond that....we shall have to wait and see.
Do you work in the weather station 
Originally Posted by krizzy
Aye, as we all know these things can be influenced at any time by other weather patterns and any forecast beyond 48 hours is pretty much 20% information 80% intuition. It has started slightly more Northerly than Dennis and at the moment the upper level winds are favourable for Emily to move NNW across upper Dom Rep into open water N of Cuba which would then take it on a track smack into S FLA. If the convergence zone North moves slighty south it will hold it down a bit and force it more across Cuba which will change its US target not to mention its strength. The big question at the moment isn't the exact track of the center but more on what its width and strength will be. Current forecast is 80kt (90mph) winds at 72 hours somewhere east of Dom Rep....
Beyond that....we shall have to wait and see.
Jul 12th 2005, 1:49 pm
#38
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=emmals]
LOL. I wish. A job at NHC would be a dream job for me. No im just an avid amateur. I got an A level in metereology which hooked me for life on the weather and I've taken a keen interest ever since.
Originally Posted by ImHere
Do you work in the weather station
LOL. I wish. A job at NHC would be a dream job for me. No im just an avid amateur. I got an A level in metereology which hooked me for life on the weather and I've taken a keen interest ever since.
Jul 12th 2005, 1:55 pm
#39
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 14,577
Re: That was Dennis...
Originally Posted by ImHere
LOL. I wish. A job at NHC would be a dream job for me. No im just an avid amateur. I got an A level in metereology which hooked me for life on the weather and I've taken a keen interest ever since.
Jul 12th 2005, 1:59 pm
#40
Re vera, potas bene.
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: Cape Cod MA..Davenport FL
Posts: 2,405
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=emmals]
I don't think there is a person in FL who does not know the ins and out of storms after last year.......people who seemed clueless last year are quoting facts and figures all over the place.....I think its kinda cute......
Originally Posted by ImHere
Do you work in the weather station
Jul 12th 2005, 2:04 pm
#41
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=krizzy]
I don't think there is a person in FL who does not know the ins and out of storms after last year.......people who seemed clueless last year are quoting facts and figures all over the place.....I think its kinda cute......
Yep. But theres a difference between verbatim regurgitation of facts and figures and being able to form an estimate based on those facts and figures. Not too many Ive met can actually do that yet....maybe after another busy year they will
Originally Posted by emmals
I don't think there is a person in FL who does not know the ins and out of storms after last year.......people who seemed clueless last year are quoting facts and figures all over the place.....I think its kinda cute......
Jul 12th 2005, 2:04 pm
#42
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
Originally Posted by anotherlimey
I want to go with the Hurricane Hunters and fly through the hurricane; but I'd have to sign my life away first.
Jul 12th 2005, 2:43 pm
#43
Re vera, potas bene.
Joined: Jun 2005
Location: Cape Cod MA..Davenport FL
Posts: 2,405
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=ImHere]
Yep. But theres a difference between verbatim regurgitation of facts and figures and being able to form an estimate based on those facts and figures. Not too many Ive met can actually do that yet....maybe after another busy year they will
I did it well enough last year to have most of my posts saying that the storms will go over central FL twice.. deleted on one site where they rent rental homes.......the third one foxed me for a long time twisting back on itself like that.......but once it did I just knew where it was heading....
I did pretty darn good with twisters too if I remember right.....reporting them to people in the area a good few minutes before the warnings came online.. by reading cell movement on radar...its just a case of doing something like that over time....you just get to know....most of the time I use the history of the area......time of year......etc....all giving you a fair idea where a storm will hit....
Originally Posted by krizzy
Yep. But theres a difference between verbatim regurgitation of facts and figures and being able to form an estimate based on those facts and figures. Not too many Ive met can actually do that yet....maybe after another busy year they will
I did pretty darn good with twisters too if I remember right.....reporting them to people in the area a good few minutes before the warnings came online.. by reading cell movement on radar...its just a case of doing something like that over time....you just get to know....most of the time I use the history of the area......time of year......etc....all giving you a fair idea where a storm will hit....
Jul 12th 2005, 2:52 pm
#44
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
[QUOTE=krizzy]
I did it well enough last year to have most of my posts saying that the storms will go over central FL twice.. deleted on one site where they rent rental homes.......the third one foxed me for a long time twisting back on itself like that.......but once it did I just knew where it was heading....
I did pretty darn good with twisters too if I remember right.....reporting them to people in the area a good few minutes before the warnings came online.. by reading cell movement on radar...its just a case of doing something like that over time....you just get to know....most of the time I use the history of the area......time of year......etc....all giving you a fair idea where a storm will hit....
Well people generally dont want to hear views they might not like.
I thinks its fascinating trying to predict something so primal and ostensibly so unpredictable. The sheer magnitude of the forces involved are nothing short of humbling and really do make you realise just how insignificant we are.
As you say, its very much a case of experience combined with knowledge. An old professional forecaster friend of mine used to tell me to make a forecast, take all the knowledge, known facts and figures, computer models...and then apply your intuition.
As I type I see that hurricane advisories have just been issued for the Lesser Antilles:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 121443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Originally Posted by ImHere
I did it well enough last year to have most of my posts saying that the storms will go over central FL twice.. deleted on one site where they rent rental homes.......the third one foxed me for a long time twisting back on itself like that.......but once it did I just knew where it was heading....
I did pretty darn good with twisters too if I remember right.....reporting them to people in the area a good few minutes before the warnings came online.. by reading cell movement on radar...its just a case of doing something like that over time....you just get to know....most of the time I use the history of the area......time of year......etc....all giving you a fair idea where a storm will hit....
Well people generally dont want to hear views they might not like.
I thinks its fascinating trying to predict something so primal and ostensibly so unpredictable. The sheer magnitude of the forces involved are nothing short of humbling and really do make you realise just how insignificant we are.
As you say, its very much a case of experience combined with knowledge. An old professional forecaster friend of mine used to tell me to make a forecast, take all the knowledge, known facts and figures, computer models...and then apply your intuition.
As I type I see that hurricane advisories have just been issued for the Lesser Antilles:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 121443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST.
LUCIA...BY THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT
575 MILES... 925 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND EMILY HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.0 N... 51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jul 12th 2005, 2:58 pm
#45
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: That was Dennis...
Also the wind speed forecast now has anticipated 72 hour 1 minute speeds of 100kts (115mph), or Cat 3:
Combined with the latest 72hr track gives us a Cat 3 hurricane hitting Dom Rep approx midday Friday, which would give us a 3/4 in South FLA around Mon Am
Combined with the latest 72hr track gives us a Cat 3 hurricane hitting Dom Rep approx midday Friday, which would give us a 3/4 in South FLA around Mon Am
Last edited by ImHere; Jul 12th 2005 at 3:02 pm.