lifehouse51

Not sure where you got the quote and what specific group they're referring to. If they're referring to people who were refused ESTA and have drug, murder, treason convictions all combined, then yes, I'd think the chance is 0-1%

lifehouse51

Yes, that's my point, and it's probably "Country"-profiling, for lack of a better term I can think of. Even back in the 80's I'm sure someone will have a much harder time getting a tourist visa if he/she's from, say, Kenya (Sorry I have nothing againt Africa), simply because he/she's from that country, regardless of socioeconomic status.

Similiarly, I think if for some reasons, the UK's not on the list of VWP, I still think the majority of the people will be able to get their visa approved. Whether the rate will be more or less than under VWP, will be unknown to me because it's a hypothetical scenario.

discoviking

You seem to have read my post out of context. Key phrases: 'Pre-VWP' 'Early 80's'

ajb1701

No i haven't read your post out of context but I did read a number of others threads and the opnion of some members is you haven't got a chance in hell of getting the B2. I am also of the understanding you cant be deported just sent home on the visa waiver whereas you get a multi year ban with the B2 visa if u get denied entry

lifehouse51

I'm not an immigration lawyer, but I don't think that's right.

You still didn't mention under what context was the 0-1% chance of getting B visa referring to. Was it people who were denied ESTA already? Those who were not denied ESTA but wanna entered for longer trips than 90 days? Those who didn't have a job and no financial support? Etc. It's the details that matter.

discoviking

I give up. Does the term 'apples and oranges' mean anything to you?

S Folinsky

Comment: bookmaking is often an art and not much of a science.

lifehouse51

I was thinking just now: If one doesn't want to go through the hassle of applying for a visa at a consulate, and yet still want 180 days of tourist status on entry with none of the restrictions of VWP, then I propose immigrating to Canada and naturalize as a Canadian Citizen

Vancouver is quite gorgeous, though you need to speak French if you wanna settle in Quebec, and unfortunately Toronto's not as big of a financial city as New York. Oh and at least Canada has a National Health Care System and prescription drugs are cheaper...

crg

It's impossible to know an individual's chances of getting an approved visa from an individual consular officer on any given day. There are just too many variables.

I typically won't give odds on someone's chances of getting a visa. On a few occasions, I have expressed doubt at someone's chances to the point that they shouldn't even bother applying. It's usually because they claim to have a recent criminal record that clearly would make them inadmissible, a recent period of unlawful presence with a bar, and/or a prior refusal or removal from the US.

ajb1701

Thats fair comment I suppose.

There can be no doubt the pros outweigh the cons on the visa waiver program. I think it was very clever the way they get you to wave your rights before admission when you sign the form I read it on wiki that's good I like that!

S Folinsky

Comment: The get you to waive some rights you no longer have! However, there is a pro quid quo in it.

scrubbedexpat099

quid pro quo?

Long time since I did Latin.

lifehouse51

Wikipedia's your friend: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quid_pro_quo

ajb1701

But you do how can I put it wave the visa checking process don't you. I mean you don't have to take job details pay stubs mortgage bank statements blah blah blah with you when you use the VWP they won't ask to see it will they?

ian-mstm

Very often, they do want to see "job details pay stubs mortgage bank statements blah blah blah".

Ian