SultanOfSwing

It's not about whether those locations are suitable to use, but their use doesn't guarantee rapid rollout.

They need to isolate an effective vaccination, we are not yet even at this step, and this includes clinical trials etc to rule out side effects. Then nearly 8 billion doses will need to be manufactured and distributed worldwide and then we can finally talk about administering them. We're simply not ready for this yet and that's why even the most generous timelines aren't suggesting a vaccine will be available until next year.

HDWill

A few hundred million vaccine doses would make a big impact in terms of 'herd immunity' and stopping the spread. They're not going to wait until there is one dose for every human on earth before they start administering a vaccine.

SultanOfSwing

Even then, that is weeks if not months to actually get them administered. And we're still best case scenario 6-9 months away from knowing which vaccine works anyway.

While you are right about the effectiveness of vaccines, herd immunity doesn't really count with a virus like this. We're not immune to the cold or flu, we're just better equipped to deal with them when the seasonal outbreaks happen. This will be the same with COVID when it becomes endemic, and there will continue to be a seasonal vaccine for it as well as the flu.

andyrebell

I am talking about UK. We need 67 million doses not 8 billion. The first one who gets it gets first crack at it you know that right.

All Johnsons speech of property of the world mankind is one whatever came of his mouth is all bluster from a man who likes to hear himself speak. If we get it first from the "Oxford One". He knows he will be hung from the tower of London or in lieu of that face a vote of no confidence and general election if he loses the vote. A vote which his 80 seat majority might not be able to withstand If even ONE of the first 67 million doses go anywhere other to the UK stockpile unless it for embassy staff overseas. Same for Trump if Pfizer gets it for September like they reckon. Can you imagine Trump 6 weeks to go to election sending x million doses to UK when USA is x million shy. And he is saying the Brits are our really great ally. They make us so proud they got a great monarchy etc etc as he is doing it. The american voters would nail him to the cross.

SultanOfSwing

There is a lot of bluster and misplaced optimism in this post and not a lot of hard science. No guarantee the UK will get it first, nor the US, but the fact remains that near enough 8 billion doses will be needed, and production will need to be ongoing for future seasonal vaccines. Frankly, I don't care what the voters think, or what the politicans think, this is a medical problem that requires a medical solution. I don't even care who gets it first, as long as everyone gets it in the end, but again, there are two problems here. The first one is being dealt with - a vaccine doesn't exist yet. Secondly there is the fact that the laws of time and space dictate quite clearly that rollout, wherever that happens first, will take a long time. Like it or not, and I think this is the fourth time I have said this to you, this is our new reality for the foreseeable future.

The funniest part is that you're still holding on to your notion that there will be a viable vaccine by September of this year. I wish I could share your optimism, but there's no point holding on to false hope.

SpoogleDrummer

Even if a vaccine were ready now and enough produced for everyone do you really think everyone will rush out and get it? I'm by no means an anti-vaxxer but I'd certainly understand if people wanted to wait a while to see if there were any long term side effects of a new vaccine.

SultanOfSwing

We hadn't even got to that part yet, the most fickle variable of all - human nature.

andyrebell

The Oxford trial is moving towards larger numbers and they are saying it looks encouraging and apparently to see if it works "they will need to compare the number of infections in the control group with the number of infections in the vaccinated group". And for this to happen, "a small number of people in the study will need to develop the virus" according the paper the Bicester Mail and how quickly they reach those numbers will depend upon transmission rates within community. Interesting stuff.

scrubbedexpat091

Moderna received approval from the FDA for phase 2 trials, if phase 2 goes well, they hope for phase 3 to start sometime this summer. Looks like they expect 2021 at the earliest if their trials are a success. They did not specify when in 2021 however.

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE started human trials in the US, they are aiming for fall 2020 for emergency use approval.

https://business.financialpost.com/p...egin-shortly-2

Maybe they are closer to a vaccine than we think?

SultanOfSwing

Interesting, of course, but not something to pin any kind of timeline on either. Do they know anything about potential side effects yet? A vaccine will be pretty useless if it kills the virus by also killing the patient.

andyrebell

One sore arm on the injection site for a couple of days from the family of 3 mentioned in the news article. A typical side effect in some persons after an injection perhaps. 601 so far in trial with figure to double soon towards the 1200 mark.

andyrebell

And half the spies in the world are probably within 5 miles of these test sites and testing companies. Massive and deniable industrial espionage will come into play with this here. Mark my words.

Guindalf

It’s amazing how much cr@p can come out of one ar$3h0le!

andyrebell

And you would have a problem with the CIA getting hold of a couple of vials from Oxford University? I am sure you would.

How long do you think will take Moderna to make 330 million vaccines for the USA if they have the right to patent it as is said they will? The Answer. Too long. And that is to say noting about the 7.7 BILLION that will be needed worldwide. Astra Zeneca and Pfizer are at least worldwide companies with many locations and good manufacturing ability so if they get the patent they can at least do it quickly in a number of locations though I don't Oxford cares about profit or patent. Moderna have no overseas operations it take years to produce for global demand.

IF Trump can take control of it he will sell it to foreign countries or use it as a tool in trade talks if he could.

Meanwhile Europe goes through more infection whilst vaccinated Americans get to travel while America keeps it's borders closed. I would be very surprised if countries didn't try and get hold of it as fast as they could.

robin1234

I suspect that the Jenner Institute and Oxford Vaccine Group, at the University of Oxford, do have a department that deals with questions of copyright and patents and similar intellectual property issues on their behalf.