Originally Posted by Pulaski

Again, you don't understand the political dynamic in the US. As the coronavirus figures are leveling off without causing the hospitals to collapse under the numbers, the political gains are to be made in the issues of rebuilding businesses and getting people back to work, and Donald Trump no doubt has his eyes on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and NC, which he needs to win in November and which currently have Democrat governors.

The relative numbers of coronavirus deaths, or even infections, is dwarfed by the numbers of people who have lost their jobs, (over 40 million and rising) and so there are vastly more votes to be gained from those who think Donald Trump will boost the economy than lost from those who think he is reckless. If Donald Trump can engineer a "V-shaped recovery", he will pick up votes in most states, and collect many of those "battleground" states with Democrat governors, where I predict he will be blaming the governors for shutting down their economies and throwing people out of work.

Originally Posted by andyrebell

You make valid argument but it is also a two headed coin. If they get a second wave of infections towards the fall as is feared. .....

Originally Posted by Pulaski

Furthermore 89% of fatalities are of people with "undying conditions" and most of the rest are over the age of 50, so it is increasingly looking like the mortality rate for someone who is healthy and young to middle aged is much less than 0.1% maybe even 0.01%, and pretty low even for older people who are in good health.

Originally Posted by Pulaski

The daily infections number is falling in the US, albeit fairly slowly, and no doubt it will be watched carefully by Donald Trump, but survey testing in New York suggests that infections are actually more than ten TIMES the reported numbers, which means three things [1] the scope for a big "second wave" is limited, because more people probably have the "herd immunity" than we thought, [2] 90% of people who get infected get it without experiencing any noticeable/ concerning symptoms, and [3] the mortality rate is only one tenth of what the mainstream numbers suggest, about 1.4% is what an article on worldometer.com says. Furthermore 89% of fatalities are of people with "undying conditions" and most of the rest are over the age of 50, so it is increasingly looking like the mortality rate for someone who is healthy and young to middle aged is much less than 0.1% maybe even 0.01%, and pretty low even for older people who are in good health.

Originally Posted by andyrebell

So this is basically a very very bad flu season then in terms of deaths. So what does that say about the decision to lockdown the country? Could and would biden risk saying with hindsight maybe the lockdown wasn't necessary. Some scientists are now saying that perhaps it wasn't.

Originally Posted by andyrebell

So this is basically a very very bad flu season then in terms of deaths. So what does that say about the decision to lockdown the country? Could and would biden risk saying with hindsight maybe the lockdown wasn't necessary. Some scientists are now saying that perhaps it wasn't.

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian

I wouldn't exactly call it a very bad flu season. Anyone can say in hindsight this that or the other but what does it achieve? Yeah perhaps we shouldn't have dropped that nuke on Hiroshima, maybe we shouldn't have built Chernobyl etc etc etc.
Look at Brazil over the last few days are we really saying its just a bad flu and no need for lockdown?

Originally Posted by Former Lancastrian

I wouldn't exactly call it a very bad flu season. Anyone can say in hindsight this that or the other but what does it achieve? Yeah perhaps we shouldn't have dropped that nuke on Hiroshima, maybe we shouldn't have built Chernobyl etc etc etc.
Look at Brazil over the last few days are we really saying its just a bad flu and no need for lockdown?

Originally Posted by robin1234

Not to mention the strokes, heart problems, neurological issues, blood clots, kidney failure, and multiple organ failure - a small proportion of those infected end up with these type of outcomes, but I think our health services will be supporting these type of patients for many decades to come. If we’d gone the libertarian herd-immunity route, presumably this group of patients who survive, but with serious ongoing needs, would be greatly increased.

Originally Posted by robin1234

What would the death toll have been if that had been done? One million, two million? With the danger of a much longer, and more profound, economic disruption? For instance - what if all meat processing in the US was forced to close for, say, two years, leading to elimination of all livestock in the US, and no meat available to the consumer?

Originally Posted by andyrebell

It is a very tough call all this especially for America where they have a lot of guns and people willing to use them. Trump is damned if he does and damned if didn't but I still stay personally he should have closed the borders much earlier than he did. They need to begin a program of mass deportation using ICE and the Police whether the police like it or not and put as many americans back to work as they can as fast as they can. No president survives a recession.

Originally Posted by robin1234

Guns - ICE - deportations. None of this is relevant to the pandemic. And yes, “Trump is damned” but only because of his monumental incompetence and laziness and total mismanagement of the crisis.

Originally Posted by andyrebell

Perhaps not. When I was living in nyc in the mid 00s a story hit fox news I think it was. I think a meat processing plant or factory of some kind in Ohio i seem to recall. They did a massive ICE raid rounded up hundreds of illegal workers and hundreds of americans queued up outside for jobs with the cameras watching them. There have to my knowledge not been any major work based enforcement raids since the time of Bush but I could be incorrect about that statement.

Originally Posted by petitefrancaise

yes you are wrong.
There have been several very high profile ones in the last year.
Still, carry on... your posts have given me a good laugh.

Originally Posted by andyrebell

According to ICE website no major worksite raid after 2008 for a number of years. In 2008 hundreds were captured in a single raid the last few years seems to be a couple of dozen at most. In 07 the raid on tv was many hundreds. No big raids nationwide catchings tens of thousands. Trump has to kick out as many as possible if he has any chance. Put as many people in work as he can. They could remove a few million between June and November in a big effort and get americans into those jobs. No president has survived a recession trump most know that.

Originally Posted by Nutmegger

Tens of thousands? What alternate universe are you living in...