Originally Posted by Steerpike

I'd agree that healthcare costs are the biggest concern, especially if, like me, you retire 'early' (before Medicare eligibility). My premiums go up each year and my exposure (deductibles, etc) are not pretty. I'm currently 61 and I just have to plan on spending close to $1,000/ mo in premiums AND anticipate a deductible of circa $7k if I actually need it. (I don't want to turn this into a healthcare debate, though!). My g/f is already 66 and her premiums / costs are much better. LUCKILY my health is good and I've not had to spend anything on health so far, other than premiums. I am very focused on keeping things that way - diet and exercise.

Why do you think you may be affected by WEP? (Windfall Elimination Provision)? I looked into it for my situation and I determined I'm not affected by WEP (worked long enough here in the US). The calculation seemed pretty clear to me. Also - can your spouse not play catchup on those missing UK years to get to the full 35 years? I would think it would be a worthwhile investment if you can. I was pleasantly surprised to see just how much I will get from Social Security; the US system is far more generous than the UK system if you paid in a lot.

How are you with spreadsheets? I built a spreadsheet that contains a column for every year from now till I reach 100. Each year takes the previous year's end balance, then adds in the income sources (Social Security, pensions, an assumption on interest/return on investment, etc) and subtracts what I think my expenses will be for the year. The difference between the fixed income sources and the anticipated expenses is my shortfall, and that has to be made up by withdrawals from my IRA/401Ks. That withdrawal of capital reduces my IRA/401K balance, and thus, the 'gain' for the next year. Once you get a fairly solid set of formulas and assumptions, it's a simple matter to replicate the column for as many years as you like, and then you can see where your balance ends up at age 100. I can vary the assumption on 'return on investment' - but I tend to anticipate only 2% over inflation (I don't try to separately anticipate inflation - I simply reduce my 'return' assumption).

I have a separate spreadsheet for my annual budget, which I've refined over the years. This tells me how much I typically spend on dining out, cable TV, Car insurance, gas, etc etc. This feeds the 'retirement' spreadsheet for the 'expenses' element.

Basically, for me, if I don't get sick and I don't need Long Term Care (LTC), I'm comfortable; my money will never run out as long as I make 2% over inflation, on average. But if you start factoring in LTC, things change in a hurry. I do have a home that is paid for, and I don't factor that in as an asset; if I needed LTC I could sell the home - but not if my partner is still living in it ... so things can get complicated when you factor in this type of thing.

I've done all kinds of 'modeling' over the years, and spoken to several financial planners, but one extremely simple rule of thumb that I've come to think is reasonable as a very rough guide to get you started is the '4%' rule. If you can limit your withdrawals of principle to 4% per year, your money should never run out. So - as described above, first figure out your 'spend' - expenses, budget, etc. Then figure out your fixed, guaranteed income sources (Social Security, pensions, etc). Whatever the difference is, is the amount you need to withdraw from savings (IRA / 401k / etc). If that amount is 4% or less, you are likely OK. If it's a lot more than 4%, you may run out and you should investigate more. Simple numbers to illustrate the point - assume you have $1M saved in IRA/401k/etc. 4% of $1M is $40,000. Assume you get $30,000 a year from Social Security. So that's 40,000 + 30,000 = 70,000 a year 'income'. Subtract taxes from that (say, 20% of the $40,000 from savings, = -$8,000) . Can you live on $62,000?

I'm always interested in hearing critiques of the above as I am now - this year for the first time - actually starting to withdraw money from savings and it's a scary concept! After a lifetime of putting money 'in', I finally had to take money 'out' and I didn't like the idea at all!

Originally Posted by Russet

We just received a calculator from our 401k provider to estimate health care costs in retirement. We too are looking to retire early but the cost of pre medicare health costs seems prohibitive. The calculator estimated that health costs at age 60 would be $40k/yr for both of us, reducing to about $20k once one of us reaches medicare age and then about $7k/yr. Does this sound realistic?

We are also working on a similar spreadsheet to age 100. The 4 % rule is something we have been advised to work to as well. We are also using the take SS and OAP pension first and then work on taking 4% from the IRAs for the balance. As you say, it can seem scary as once you stop working there is no new money adding to the 'pot' and you have to rely on taking distributions.

Originally Posted by Russet

We just received a calculator from our 401k provider to estimate health care costs in retirement. We too are looking to retire early but the cost of pre medicare health costs seems prohibitive. The calculator estimated that health costs at age 60 would be $40k/yr for both of us, reducing to about $20k once one of us reaches medicare age and then about $7k/yr. Does this sound realistic?

Originally Posted by Steerpike

Another factor to consider - RMD - Required Minimum Distributions. By age 72 (just increased from 70) you MUST withdraw a minimum amount from your IRA or 401k or face a penalty (assuming classic IRA and not Roth IRA). If things go as well as I hope, I won't be needing anywhere near as much as the RMD requires, so I'll be forced to withdraw more than I need. Of course I'll just save it, but it does mean I'll need to work on the tax aspect. The formula for RMD is complex but well known. Of course, being subject to RMD is one of those 'nice problems to have' in some ways!

The healthcare cost question is rather nebulous. I'm 61 and my g/f is 66, so we are now 'living it' as it were. I can tell you my 'healthcare costs' last year were about $8,000 and will be similar this year. But that's because I'm healthy. I didn't spend a penny on drugs, I had one visit to the doctor that cost me about $150, and the rest was all insurance premiums. IF I were to have had an illness, though - or broken a leg, or needed treatment of any kind, the situation would be radically different. My deductible is about $8,000 so I'd first have to spend that much out of pocket. After that, I don't recall all the details but I'm sure I'd continue to pay the 'co-payment' parts for some time. So that would mean, $8,000 in premiums and another $8,000 in deductible, plus copayments, prescription costs, ambulance costs, and so on ... so I can imagine that could easily get to $20,000. Double it for two people, that's $40,000. I'm guessing that's how they are calculating the $40k. But is that likely to be the cost every year from 60 to 65? I guess you need to take a look at your own health situation, and factor in some likelihood of accidents, and go from there.

ETA - just asked my g/f (66 years old and on medicare); her insurance premiums are about $2,500/year. She's not sure on what her deductibles are off the top of her head, but I don't think they are bad. She also has no ongoing expenses so her costs are entirely premium based.

Originally Posted by lansbury

My personal experience disagrees with the estimates you have been given, as far as pre medicare. My wife and I were 56 and 58 when we retired end of 2006, so had 9 years before we could claim medicare based on her account. I am reasonably healthy and my wife has type 2 diabetes. We averaged together $16,000 a year in medical costs, which included insurance premiums. It touched $20k one year, when I had a tumor removed from a nerve root on my spine. and my share of the cost for that was $4k.

We have avoided, until this year, as far as dental care anything other than routine check ups and cleaning. If you need dental treatment expect costs to escalate rapidly. We have never found dental insurance that covers any worthwhile amount.

Originally Posted by Russet

These are the numbers I was expecting, well maybe $20k in joint premiums. So was shocked at the $40k. We are both fairly healthy and have been maxing out our HSA for the past couple of years to build up a reserve for deductibles in retirement. I guess a lot depends on the unknown of potential health isssues but was trying to get an estimate for the premium costs for a reasonable plan . We have always been lucky enough to have good subsidized workplans so have been sheltered from the full costs.

I hadn't thought about dental,so another item for the spreadsheet. My current dentist keeps suggesting I should start replacing old fillings, which I have been resisting, but maybe it is something I should consider, before retirement, while we have a decent plan.

Originally Posted by BennyBall

Thanks to everyone who offers an excellent point of view on this post. I’m a new recruit and finding my way around quite merrily.
WEP was an unknown to me before finding BE and I’m so grateful for the info that I’ve found.
I’m wondering if anyone with a military background can set me straight on WEP.
I married a retired veteran, 26 years in US airforce and I’ve been in the US since 2015, citizenship proudly obtained two months ago.
I have 24 years paid national insurance credits from the U.K. and could top up my missing years .... and I’m sure that I will. I only have four years work credit over on this side therefore that won’t count for too much.
the probability of me being a military surviving spouse is quite high due to a fifteen year age gap .... does anyone know if military survivors benefit is calculated into WEP ? Naturally the easiest thing to do is not talk about it and pretend it won’t happen.... but we all know better than that and a little knowledge goes a long way.

Originally Posted by Steerpike

Since we have a collection of retired folks on this thread, I'm curious to know how people's personal retirement money is doing, during "Covid time". Seems to be reasonably 'on topic' for the thread. I've always been a risk-taker with my retirement, and even after I retired in 2013 I left my money in a rather aggressive profile, with mostly stocks; just a few bonds and no fixed income. The money has done great overall; crashed big-time in 2008/9, but recovered well (equivalent to an annual 6% return over 30 years, including the terrible crash years); . Anyway - By mid-March of this year, I was down a few hundred thousand relative to Jan 1. I felt awful ... positively gutted. I thought about moving money to safer havens, but realized it was too late and 'just let it ride'. I even thought about working again ... But by June, I was back to where I was in Jan, and now I'm up compared to Jan 1!. I did re-balance, in June, setting aside some cash, and moving to 50% bonds, 40% stock, 10% cash. But now I'm feeling like I'm missing out on the market . My g/f, who takes far greater risks than me (and is 66!), has kept her portfolio almost 100% stocks all year; she's now up big time compared to Jan 1!

Originally Posted by robin1234

Yes, this is more or less my experience too. I’m afraid my long-term, big worry is not so much whether our total accumulation in tax-advantaged retirement funds is up, or down, by a few hundred thousand dollars compared to last year or six months ago. It’s whether we move into financial collapse, hyper inflation, wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread territory. (I guess wheelbarrows are obsolete, actually credit or debit cards will be much more convenient that having to print hundred million dollar bills!)

Originally Posted by Steerpike

Since we have a collection of retired folks on this thread, I'm curious to know how people's personal retirement money is doing, during "Covid time". Seems to be reasonably 'on topic' for the thread. I've always been a risk-taker with my retirement, and even after I retired in 2013 I left my money in a rather aggressive profile, with mostly stocks; just a few bonds and no fixed income. The money has done great overall; crashed big-time in 2008/9, but recovered well (equivalent to an annual 6% return over 30 years, including the terrible crash years); . Anyway - By mid-March of this year, I was down a few hundred thousand relative to Jan 1. I felt awful ... positively gutted. I thought about moving money to safer havens, but realized it was too late and 'just let it ride'. I even thought about working again ... But by June, I was back to where I was in Jan, and now I'm up compared to Jan 1!. I did re-balance, in June, setting aside some cash, and moving to 50% bonds, 40% stock, 10% cash. But now I'm feeling like I'm missing out on the market . My g/f, who takes far greater risks than me (and is 66!), has kept her portfolio almost 100% stocks all year; she's now up big time compared to Jan 1!