Playing the Constitution card.
#256
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 10,005
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
Fair enough, I'm sure there are plenty of places where crime has increased even in the face of an overall decrease.
Your personal experience not withstanding, this article on the subject in general makes an interesting read: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines reveal an increasingly peaceful period in history..
Your personal experience not withstanding, this article on the subject in general makes an interesting read: The world is not falling apart: The trend lines reveal an increasingly peaceful period in history..
Good link.
I wonder if there any good polls out there by region asking opinions in relation to these statistics by region, Also what are the reasons for the overall decline.
#258
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 10,005
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
True, but remember that the plural of anecdote is not data, even when it's morpeth spouting.... and with the fall in crime being so marked since the 70's and '80's, I wonder how many areas of the country have actually seen an increase? Chicago, presumably, but I am sceptical that the list is very long.
Of course people's perceptions can be very different to that reality:
"Despite double-digit percentage decreases in U.S. violent and property crime rates since 2008, most voters say crime has gotten worse during that span, according to a new Pew Research Center survey."
"These polling trends stand in sharp contrast to the long-term crime trends reported by the FBI and BJS. Both agencies have documented big decreases in violent and property crime rates since the early 1990s, when U.S. crime rates reached their peak. The BJS data, for instance, show that violent and property crime levels in 2015 were 77% and 69% below their 1993 levels, respectively."
Voters’ perceptions of crime continue to conflict with reality | Pew Research Center
Of course people's perceptions can be very different to that reality:
"Despite double-digit percentage decreases in U.S. violent and property crime rates since 2008, most voters say crime has gotten worse during that span, according to a new Pew Research Center survey."
"These polling trends stand in sharp contrast to the long-term crime trends reported by the FBI and BJS. Both agencies have documented big decreases in violent and property crime rates since the early 1990s, when U.S. crime rates reached their peak. The BJS data, for instance, show that violent and property crime levels in 2015 were 77% and 69% below their 1993 levels, respectively."
Voters’ perceptions of crime continue to conflict with reality | Pew Research Center
#259
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 228
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
A few minths ago my girlfriend & I had a day out in Bushwick Brooklyn. We ate some great food, went to an art gallery & then relaxed for a while in Maria Hernandez park, surrounded by kids playing in the sunshine & old dudes playing chess.
Maria Hernandez, who the park is named after, was a community work who was shit dead at that intersection, in the eighties, at the height of the crack wars, when the whole area was absolutely a no go area with (I believe) an annual murder rate in the hundreds.
When I came here in 1997 nuch of the US was seen as this really violent place & somewhere to avoid. Apart from some parts of
Chicago, I don't think thats true so much any more, is it ?
Maria Hernandez, who the park is named after, was a community work who was shit dead at that intersection, in the eighties, at the height of the crack wars, when the whole area was absolutely a no go area with (I believe) an annual murder rate in the hundreds.
When I came here in 1997 nuch of the US was seen as this really violent place & somewhere to avoid. Apart from some parts of
Chicago, I don't think thats true so much any more, is it ?
#260
Account Closed
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 0
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
A few minths ago my girlfriend & I had a day out in Bushwick Brooklyn. We ate some great food, went to an art gallery & then relaxed for a while in Maria Hernandez park, surrounded by kids playing in the sunshine & old dudes playing chess.
Maria Hernandez, who the park is named after, was a community work who was shit dead at that intersection, in the eighties, at the height of the crack wars, when the whole area was absolutely a no go area with (I believe) an annual murder rate in the hundreds.
When I came here in 1997 nuch of the US was seen as this really violent place & somewhere to avoid. Apart from some parts of
Chicago, I don't think thats true so much any more, is it ?
Maria Hernandez, who the park is named after, was a community work who was shit dead at that intersection, in the eighties, at the height of the crack wars, when the whole area was absolutely a no go area with (I believe) an annual murder rate in the hundreds.
When I came here in 1997 nuch of the US was seen as this really violent place & somewhere to avoid. Apart from some parts of
Chicago, I don't think thats true so much any more, is it ?
#261
Banned
Joined: Dec 2015
Location: california
Posts: 6,035
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
I remember how bad the air was when I first arrived here. By mid day you could hardly see the San Gabriel mountains from downtown.
There's a lot more traffic on the roads now but the air quality has improved tremendously. The mandatory smog testing has also gotten rid of the gas hogs and polluters
#262
Forum Regular
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 228
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
Sure - there are definitely always exceptions to any rose tinted view of anything. But - Houston aside (which tbh I know nothing about) - many (most ?) of the cities that were allegedly out of control 2 decades ago now aren't.
#263
Account Closed
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 0
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
It may have improved slightly but after the influx of the many homeless from New Orleans when Katrina hit in 2005 the gang rivalry got really bad and the murder count went back up
#264
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph.../daily-chart-3
#265
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
As the topic appears to have moved towards Trump, and this is kinda on topic, did no-one else notice their President exercising his 1st amendment rights at the WH Easter egg roll, at least he was, until FLOTUS jabbed him and he moved his hand up to cover his heart whilst the national anthem was being rolled out?
#266
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
As the topic appears to have moved towards Trump, and this is kinda on topic, did no-one else notice their President exercising his 1st amendment rights at the WH Easter egg roll, at least he was, until FLOTUS jabbed him and he moved his hand up to cover his heart whilst the national anthem was being rolled out?
#267
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...urder-in-2016/
America’s 25 Murder Capitals - 24/7 Wall St.
#268
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
According to the first chart in the link I provided, it pretty consistently looks like over 75% of big city murders use a gun as the weapon. Just sayin'.
#269
Account Closed
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 0
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
According to this graph the murder rate improved immensely between the early '90's and the time of Katrina (scroll down to the "Homicides per 100,000 population" graph and select Houston from the drop-down list. Katrina may have then been the cause of an increase for a few years, but by 2010 the murder rate was markedly lower than before Katrina:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph.../daily-chart-3
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph.../daily-chart-3
And if you listen to the Houston news each night it is very hard to believe the murder rate has decreased.
#270
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 12,865
Re: Playing the Constitution card.
Crime in Houston, Texas (TX): murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, thefts, auto thefts, arson, law enforcement employees, police officers, crime map
Edit: found this; scroll down to post 2; violent crime rate peaked in 1992 and had declined by almost a third by 2012. Unfortunately this link doesn't go past then:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=221681
Yeh, but that is exactly the problem I posted a poll about earlier, namely that crime perceptions overwhelmingly are divergent with actual crime trends. "If it bleeds it leads".
Last edited by Giantaxe; Apr 20th 2017 at 4:59 am.