zzrmark

That raises an interesting conundrum. Do you as a shareholder dump your shares in the company that won't do 1.2bn this year or the one that won't do 4.6bn?

civilservant

Personally? I'd stick with DAL, simply because they will have a larger borrowing capacity against their larger revenue and are far less leveraged. AA seem to be in over their heads.

Pulaski

You are probably correct, but I am not sure how AA might be able to use Ch11 to shed a lot of debt and exit leases, though if they can the existing shareholders would likely be wiped out - in other words, the airline might survive, but at the expense of the current shareholders.

Think about GM V Ford a decade ago - GM went bust, took $Bns of government money, and are still going head to head with Ford, which didn't go bust, and didn't take government money. But the previous shareholders in GM lost more or less everything. So being in "over your head" isn't necessarily a bad thing, but only if the federal government decides that you are "too big to fail".

civilservant

Oh I agree, I am not saying AA is in danger of folding.

USG will never allow that to happen, after all, it says American right in the name

Giantaxe

From everything I've read, United, not American, is being most egregious in ignoring D of Transportation regulations on providing cash refunds for cancelled flights. I would be leery of accepting any travel certificate right now given the possibility that either the airline will fold or a chapter 11 reorganization will see such certificates become potentially worthless.

Pulaski

An interesting summary of what is happening to airlines, especially what is going to happen to the CARES Act support for US airlines (@6:47), and the level of service reduction (@8:50). The figures discussed are for service reductions of 95%-99%.

zzrmark

Sarasota airport had more air traffic leaving it today than I've seen/heard in total from the previous 8 weekdays. (An odd measure of time but I haven't been working under the exit flight path at the weekends!!). Vehicular traffic on the roads today was also approaching normal volume for out of season with schools out.

markonline1

We continue to throttle back. We are guaranteed 14 flights a week as a small hub airport. Luckily, thanks to FAA money, jobs should be secure for a while, and as we are about to start some major infield safety projects, I should be ok even if further cutbacks do come. Still worrying times though. It’s interesting to see the huge turn in public opinion of Richard Branson during this whole pandemic. The general opinion seems to be he should be pumping his own money into saving his companies and not applying for taxpayer money. Don’t happen to agree with that sentiment myself.

scrubbedexpat091

Vancouver Airport seems to have more parked/stored planes these days then planes coming and going. The US airlines are basically nothing right now, Delta maintained 2 flights a day to Seattle, United has some days they have no flights at all (they were the largest US carrier in Vancouver followed by Delta) Alaska is down to 1 flight a day to Seattle, American appears down to just 1 DFW flight a day. It's quite sad what is going on.

Some 15,000+ people who worked at the airport in some capacity are out of work and most likely will not be recalled anytime soon. My old company had to lay all but a handful of managers who know handle the flights, but with as few as 3 flights a day, they don't exactly have enough work to keep employees, smallish company so don't have deep pockets, they may not even survive this, hard for a ground handling company to make money with nearly no flights or even make enough to cover fixed costs.

Airport is open, but nearly everything within it is closed, those who are flying its recommended they bring food and an empty bottle to fill with water past security as usually all the concessions are closed.

All flights except US departures are using the international terminal, they closed off the domestic terminal to save money.

The major airports in Canada typically don't receive government funds like US airports do, and are self sufficient and pay rent to the federal government for the land, so some are facing rough times without much revenue coming in, NavCanada I wonder if they have enough funds saved, they are not like the FAA, they are funded primarily through charges they charge aircraft operators and publicly traded debt. They don't get tax funds and operate independently of the government.

lansbury

British Airways is set to make up to 12,000 workers redundant. Total workforce is about 45,000.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...s-12000-staff/

scrubbedexpat091

Highlights from Southwest 1st quarter results and press release which is more detailed than the typical press release.

• First quarter net loss of $94 million and $.18 net loss per diluted share
• Excluding special items1, net loss of $77 million and $.15 net loss per diluted share
• First quarter operating revenues of $4.2 billion, down 17.8 percent year-over-year
• Capital returns of $639 million to Shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during first quarter; dividends and share repurchase programs suspended until further notice
• Return on invested capital (ROIC)1 pre-tax of 18.1 percent for the 12 months ended March 31, 2020, or 14.3 percent on an after-tax basis
• In April 2020, reached an agreement in principle with the U.S. Department of Treasury (the "U.S. Treasury") for proceeds of approximately $3.3 billion under the Payroll Support Program ("PSP") as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act); consists of $2.3 billion in direct payroll support and $948 million in the form of an unsecured 10-year term loan; the Company is expected to issue warrants that enable the U.S. Treasury to purchase up to an aggregate of approximately 2.6 million shares of the Company's common stock
• Since the beginning of 2020, bolstered cash on hand by $6.8 billion as of April 24, 2020, including $1.6 billion of PSP proceeds, or 50 percent; remaining $1.6 billion of PSP proceeds expected to be received by July 2020

"The Company has continued to experience weak passenger demand and bookings in April 2020, and operating revenues are currently estimated to decrease, year-over-year, in the range of 90 to 95 percent; available seat miles (ASMs, or capacity) are estimated to decrease approximately 60 percent, year-over-year; and load factor is estimated to be approximately 6 percent. For May 2020, operating revenues are also currently estimated to decrease, year-over-year, in the range of 90 to 95 percent; capacity is estimated to decrease in the range of 60 to 70 percent, year-over-year; and load factor is estimated to be in the range of 5 to 10 percent. The revenue environment remains uncertain, and the Company is unable to reasonably estimate trends beyond May 2020."

"First quarter 2020 total operating expenses decreased 6.5 percent, year-over-year, to $4.3 billion."

"The Company ended first quarter 2020 with 742 aircraft in its fleet. In response to capacity reductions due to the effects of the pandemic, the Company currently has approximately 350 aircraft in long-term storage or temporary parking. "

markonline1

Spot the difference! With TSA daily screening numbers dropping below 100k though, not sure how many pax are actually up in those planes.

scrubbedexpat091

Boeing will shrink workforce 10%, 787 Dreamliner production with be further reduced and looking to boost liquidity. Burnt through $4.3 billion in 1st quarter, they drew down their entire $13.8 billion credit line last month.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KBN22B1N7?il=0

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/...roduction-cuts

scrubbedexpat091

Vancouver airport authoriry is laying off some of its own staff now.

The airport doesnt seem optimistic traffic will return quickly.

Pulaski

It is clearly going to be a number or months before any attempt to reopen international flights is possible, and as there is currently very little appetite for domestic travel within the US, I think that is a fair predictor for what will happen when the out-right bans on non-citizens/ LPRs of the destination country) are lifted, i.e. there won't be much demand.

As I have predicted before on BE (and been ranted at by some for saying it), and the BBC web site repeated as recently as yesterday, there is little likelihood of a vaccine being widely available before mid 2021, and that is only a best case scenario. So the prospects for international air travel returning to anything like 2019 is IMO years away, and with little demand and many very modern aircraft "parked up" for the foreseeable future, I think that the prospects for Boeing or Airbus selling more than a handful of civilian aircraft per year in the next five years has to be extremely slim, and that cutting 10% of Boeing's workforce will be overshadowed by more cuts coming - I think I saw that Airbus was talking about cutting of a third of their workforce, but I don't think that will be enough either.