November Elections
 

Anyone else following the November elections. It's possible that the republicans may pick up the senate. However if they do, according to some, Mitch McConnell (if he is reelected) may be in sort of a pickle. Apparently Mitch wants to repeal Obamacare but first wants to provide a replacement bill but the right wing of the party just wants to repeal it and return to the old system. Naturally either would be vetoed by Obama but Mitch is concerned that if he doesn't introduce a replacement bill that has some of the things in Obamacare, that will hurt his party and lose votes in the 2016 election.

Mitch is apparently also concerned that if nothing gets done when republicans control both chambers, that will also hurt the party since they probably can't introduce any bill that would seem like a compromise with Obama. He's also concerned that there may be a showdown between the far right of the party and others within the party. Michael Steele (R) says he is concerned about all of the above if the republicans take control of the senate.

As far as the democrats are concerned, it may be ok for the republicans to take over the senate since nothing of any significance has been passed during the past 4 years.

For Democrats, the good news is that they will likely pick up governorships in Gubernatorial elections.

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the House

RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - 2014 Governor Races

One interesting governor's race is Maine. LePage (R) is currently running even with Michaud (D) but it is a three way race. This week the independent candidate made an announcement that appeared that he was dropping out of the race but really didn't drop out but told voters to vote their conscience. Everyone was confused so the independent senator from Maine withdrew his endorsement and supporters said they would be voting for the democrat.

Another interesting race is Florida's Scott (R) vs. Crist (D) which is tied. The democrats probably wouldn't have had much of a chance except for the fact that the republicans drove Christ out of the republican party and is now a democrat.

An interesting but confusing race is the Scott Brown (R) race. In 2012, Brown lost his senate seat in Massachusetts and was considering running for governor of Massachusetts but decided against that and instead decided to run as a senator from New Hampshire. He is running slightly behind the democrat in New Hampshire and will likely lose. However when he won the senate seat in Massachusetts, he beat Martha Coakley badly and she is the democratic nominee for governor of Massachusetts and it appears she will likely lose to the republican candidate and would have likely lost to Brown if he ran against her.

Another interesting senate race is Kansas where the republicans expected to win handily but the current republican senator was so badly beat up by the Tea Party that he lost popularity. However he appeared to be safe since it was a three way race but then the democratic candidate dropped out. The republican Attorney General was still going to keep the democratic candidate on the ballot but the democratic party appealed but the AG claimed that he needed to print the ballots by tomorrow according to law. But then the judge immediately ruled against the AG and then the AG claimed that he got permission from the federal government to delay printing the ballots trying to force the democrats to nominate someone to put on the ballot. The federal government then said they did not give the AG permission to delay printing the ballots and the ballots were printed with only two candidates. Right now that race is tied.

Re: November Elections
 

It seems increasingly likely the new AZ governor will be Doug Doucey. Heavily tied to evangelists like Cathi Herrod who push they anti gay anti abortion crap. According to their attack ads his opponent eats babies or something.

Re: November Elections
 

Although that one indicates leaning republican, if it leans much more it'll fall over.

Re: November Elections
 

That is my one hope out of all this - that Obamacare gets solidified over the next two years to the point where "everyone" (the majority) agrees it has value, and even the Republicans have to address it.

This is the only Gov. race that I'm familiar with. I quite like Crist and would like to see him win.

The ads against Kirkpatrick (House) were extremely nasty when I was in AZ last month - they've probably gotten worse as election day approaches. Thank goodness I'm not there right now. Here in CA, looks like a significant infrastructure bond measure will pass handily (prop 1).

Re: November Elections
 

What gets me is that despite leaning further and further lots of voters seem to be saying "yeah damn straight".

Actually quite interested by Kansas voting. Have inlaws there. Kansas could be a poster child for screwed up tea party economic policy.

Re: November Elections
 

The thing is that the republicans can't change Obamacare unless it is constructive change and not destructive change. If there are destructive changes, Obama will veto it.

By the time the 2016 election roles around where the republicans could possibly win the presidency and both chambers, there will likely be about 40 million Americans on ACA and possibly at least 25 million liking it. There are also other parts of the bill that fills the prescription drug donut hole for seniors, covers to age 26 on parents policy, insurance companies can't cancel someone's insurance, can't refuse insurance, can't raise rates, can't limit treatment for illnesses, and has a maximum out of pocket expense. If you put all that together, you are probably approaching 80 million people that may possibly be benefiting from the program in one way or another.

If the republicans repeal the whole program, every single voter that is affected negatively will likely vote in future elections and it won't likely be for republicans. If they chip away at the program, that may cost them 5-10 million votes per hack.

For Arizona, I suspect the republican would need to get "foot in the mouth" disease to lose that election.

It would also be real funny if the republican lost in Kansas and the republicans lost the senate by one vote that should have been a guaranteed republican state. I could imagine the sh*t flying in the republican party if that happened.

Re: November Elections
 

I didn't open this thread expecting to find much to agree with, but remarkably I do agree with this.

Despite my many concerns and reservations about the Affordable Care Act, the Republicans need to get over it, and move on with life. It was immediately obvious, after it passed, that there is no way back. It might need tweaking or pruning in places, but broadly speaking it is going to stand, and the sooner that the Republicans accept this the more electable they'll become.

And for the record, I voted this morning, and voted for candidates from both main parties. :)

Re: November Elections
 

This explains Texas politics.

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/ggzr3r/democalypse-2014---south-by-south-mess--blueless>

Re: November Elections
 

Your getting too mushy Pulaski.:lol:

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I could work on firming-up my attitude. There are plenty of people locally who would be happy go help me, I'm sure. :unsure:

Re: November Elections
 

Mary Landrieu probably guaranteed that she will lose reelection in Louisiana when she make the following statement.

“I’ll be very, very honest with you. The South has not always been the friendliest place for African Americans,” Landrieu told NBC’s Chuck Todd on Thursday. “It’s been a difficult time for the president to present himself in a very positive light as a leader.”

Mary Landrieu: Comments about Obama, racism being twisted | OnPolitics

Although she'll probably lose the election, I gave her A+ for her courage but now she is backtracking like many in the democratic party that pretend that they don't support Obama's policies just to get reelected. I suspect many voters feel that democratic candidates aren't being honest about their own policies. She is now criticizing Obama for the moratorium following the BP oil spill but instead should be pointing out that the federal government pulled in boats from around the world and contributed much more aid in a timely fashion than BP eventually ended up paying in penalties.

At one time I thought Alison Lundergan Grimes had a good chance at beating Mitch McConnell but she started distancing herself very far from Obama and has been losing ground fast. It's surprising that she distanced herself from Obamacare since Kentucky has probably the most successful implementation of any state covering more than 500,000 people. Even Mitch McConnell said that he would create a similar program at the state level (sounds really dumb giving away 100% federal funding to tax Kentuckians). The democrats are not going to get republican voters so appealing to republicans only makes it less likely the democrats will turn out. They turn away from Obama's economic policies instead of defending them by comparing them to what is happing to other countries around the world. A good democrat should be able to support Obamacare and Obama's economic policies but the candidates seem to think it is too hard to do. The allow the republicans to blame Obama for the problems in the Middle East but don't mention that the mess would be manageable if Bush didn't invade Iraq. It seems that they democrats just don't have the fight or stomach that the republicans have. The republican claim that Obama didn't support the rebels in Syria quickly enough but the democrats don't counter back that if we look at who our allies supported (the gulf states), they gave arms and money to the wrong people (ISIS or other radicals) just like the US did in Afghanistan when they (the Taliban) were fighting the Russians.

Democrats can't win elections if they are always playing defense.

Re: November Elections
 

We'll get you into consoling.;) Maybe HH can give you some tips.;)

Re: November Elections
 

I don't need consoling thanks, I'm quite happy! :

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I can't remember if oversea's citizens can vote for the senate and house races, but I don't follow those races anymore. I just follow presidential years now.

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Locally, we're getting loads of adverts for people in NH to vote for Scott Brown....thing is, we're in MA.

Plus, he was a reject in MA, so why would folks in NH want to vote for sloppy seconds?